Let's not forget that it was the US that didn't want much nuclear capability in Europe so they offered to protect us with their nuclear umbrella. They strongly objected to Italy's nuclear program for example.
Now that the US umbrella can't be relied upon, we will need our own. I do think it's the main reason Europe has been safe since WWII.
Unless we live on another planet Russia can barely fight a war against Ukraine and their military capabilities have been further eroded for decades with insane losses to their personnel, economy and equipment.
There is one, and only one country in the world in the position to threaten Europe in any way, and it's our most important ally.
Russia on the other hand is shit at waging their war in Ukraine but they achieved their objectives (land bridge to Sevastopol, etc.).
So the worry is not that Russia will wage a well fought war, but some war at all, even if they are shit at it, because it will do extensive damage either way. And we know for a fact that they don't shy away from it.
*Ukraine with very significant support from various countries
The only thing that matters is that all people rise up and demand an end to nuclear weapons.
If Pakistan and India both didn't have nuclear weapons you can rest assured they would've long fought an endless stream of wars with tens and tens of millions. They hate each other.
Specifically, the people who are not part of the American mono-pole.
Seems like the current French government and many decisions they make between now and then would be lame-ducky and be taken with a grain of salt.
Also comparing with Italy, did Meloni really turn out the way people (including myself) thought?
The only reason she didn't turn worse is because her government highly depends on more moderate parties like Forza Italia.
Others that think a nation should turn isolationist and focus on domestic problems instead of helping other European countries.
Regarding Meloni, yes, people feared how she’d end up like, and many vilified her leading up to the election. But not to the degree that say, the National Rally or the Le Pens have always been. Or at least, that is what I observed as an outsider who is neither French, Italian, or European.
Plus, you can argue that many people believed “oh, Trump couldn’t possibly really be like that”, and, well, here we are.
Honestly, Macron is one of the few politicians in Europe that has consistently understood the importance of pan-Europeanism and has called for strengthening of European armies or giving birth to an EU army for a long time.
I understand he's unpopular, but as a non-French I cannot see how he's been wrong on so many topics, especially when it comes to international relations.
And to finish, with the recent world events I highly doubt that Trump-like politicians can win elections, especially in countries like France. Sadly, a Trumpist did win elections in Poland just recently though.
All eastern European countries are plagued by this insanity of electing presidents, which makes it very easy to fall into this anti democratic insanities we see from Russia to Belarus and now US.
That's been just as true of all their politicians for as long as I can remember. Multiparty system, after a few rounds the vote for president comes down to someone sane but unpopular vs. some equivalent of the Tea Party, the French population put clothespegs on their noses and votes for the sane option.
(Dunno about the rest of their electoral system besides president).
I remember the last election Macron’s coalition had to use some kind of creative trickery to keep National Rally and their friends from winning; after which the latter called foul.
Edit: digging deeper, said “trickery” appears to be a tactic that has been used in the past like you said. But it also seems like it’s never been this close down to the wire too.
Canada was supposed to have a large (historically large) conservative government 3 months before the latest elections, but with Trump in the white house people suddenly want to move away from the right, it's a very interesting effect.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/canada/global-elect...
It's not impossible that we will see something similar happen across Europe.
The solution was to stage US soldiers and tactical nukes in Western Europe as a living tripwire to force any US president to push the button.
In positive developments, Ukraine obliterated over $4.3 billion in air defense assets in the past two weeks and is producing more than 1:1 unjammable fiber optic drones faster for each Z contract-taker mobilized as meat assault fodder.
Coming under the French nuclear umbrella explicitly means that if a country is under extreme threat of nuclear attack, France will 100% retaliate. Unlike the current scenario where even if the country is an EU ally, France can still choose to refuse.
Later down the line, France could even choose to delegate nuclear hosting to those countries, like the US does with Turkey and the like. Obviously those nations don't get access to the codes.
At the end of the day, everything works on the basis of trust, and while the US has broken its covenant, the EU countries have not, especially not with each other.
Would you trust them in crunch time mere 90 years later?