75 pointsby marcyb5st7 hours ago31 comments
  • MadDemon6 hours ago
    LLMs and their capabilities are very impressive and definitely useful. The productivity gains often seem to be smaller than intuitively expected though. For example, using ChatGPT to get a response to a random question like "How do I do XYZ" is much more convenient than googling it, but the time savings are often not that relevant for your overall productivity. Before LLMs you were usually already able to find the information quickly and even a 10x speed up does not really have too much of an impact on your overall productivity, because the time it took was already negligible.
    • drzaiusx116 hours ago
      If only search engine AI output didn't constantly haluciate nonexistent APIs, it might be a net productivity gain for me...but it's not. I've been bit enough times by their false "example" output for it to be a significant net time loss vs using traditional search results.
      • skybrian6 hours ago
        Using ChatGPT and phrasing it like a search seems like a better way? “Can you find documentation about an API that does X?”
        • lazide6 hours ago
          It will often literally just make up the documentation.

          If you ask for a link, it may hallucinate the link.

          And unlike a search engine where someone had to previously think of, and then make some page with the fake content on it, it will happily make it up on the fly so you'll end up with a new/unique bit of fake documentation/url!

          At that point, you would have been way better off just... using a search engine?

          • taude5 hours ago
            how is it hallucinating links? The links are direct links to the webpage that they vectorized or whatever as input to the LLM query. In fact, on almost all LLM responses DuckDuckGo and Google, the links are right there as sited sources that you click on (i know because I'm almost always clicking on the source link to read the original details, and not the made up one
            • madcaptenor5 hours ago
              I would imagine links can be hallucinated because the original URLs in the training data get broken up into tokens - so it's not hard to come up with a URL that has the right format (say https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.01234 - which is a real paper but I just made up that URL) and a plausible-sounding title.
              • jjj1234 hours ago
                Yeah, but the current state of ChatGPT doesn’t really do this. The comment you’re replying to explains why URLs from ChatGPT generally aren’t constructed from raw tokens.
                • madcaptenor3 hours ago
                  You are absolutely right! The current state of ChatGPT was not in my training data.
          • skybrian5 hours ago
            I haven't seen this happen in ChatGPT thinking mode. It actually does a bunch of web searches and links to the results.
    • palmotea4 hours ago
      > For example, using ChatGPT to get a response to a random question like "How do I do XYZ" is much more convenient than googling it, but the time savings are often not that relevant for your overall productivity. Before LLMs you were usually already able to find the information quickly and even a 10x speed up does not really have too much of an impact on your overall productivity, because the time it took was already negligible.

      I'd even question that. The pre-LLM solutions were in most cases better. Searching a maintained database of curated and checked information is far better than LLM output (which is possibly bullshit).

      Ditto to software engineering. In software, we have things call libraries: you write the code once, test it, then you trust it and can use it as many times as you want forever for free. Why use LLM generated code when you have a library? And if you're asking for anything complex, you're probably just getting a plagiarized and bastardized version of some library anyway.

      The only thing where LLMs shine is a kind of simple, lazy "mash this up so I don't have to think about it" cases. And sometimes it might be better to just do it yourself and develop your own skills instead of use an LLM.

    • skybrian6 hours ago
      I use ChatGPT “thinking” mode as a way to run multiple searches and summarize the results. It takes some time, but I can do other stuff in another tab and come back.

      It’s for queries that are unlikely to be satisfied in a single search. I don’t think it would be a negligible amount of time if you did it yourself.

      • Gud3 hours ago
        This is the way. I do it the same way for development. The main point is I can run multiple tasks in parallel(myself + LLM(s)).

        I let Claude and ChatGPT type out code for me, while I focus on my research

    • direwolf206 hours ago
      This is partly because Google is past the enshittification hump and ChatGPT is just starting to climb up it - they just announced ads.
      • hodgesrm6 hours ago
        This. And the wonderful thing about LLMs is that they can be trained to bend responses in specific directions, say toward using Oracle Cloud solutions. There's fertile ground for commercial value extraction that goes far beyond ads. Think of it as product placement on steroid.
        • direwolf206 hours ago
          You don't even need training — you can add steering vectors in the middle of the otherwise-unmodified computation. Remember Golden Gate Claude?
    • HarHarVeryFunny5 hours ago
      > For example, using ChatGPT to get a response to a random question like "How do I do XYZ" is much more convenient than googling it

      More convenient than traditional search? Maybe. Quicker than traditional search? Maybe not.

      Asking random questions is exactly where you run into time-wasting hallucinations since the models don't seem to be very good at deciding when to use a search tool and when just to rely on their training data.

      For example, just now I was asking Gemini how to fix a bunch of Ubuntu/Xfce annoyances after a major upgrade, and it was a very mixed bag. One example: the default date and time display is in an unreadably small "date stacked over time" format (using a few pixel high font so this fits into the menu bar), and Gemini's advice was to enable the "Display date and time on single line" option ... but there is no such option (it just hallucinated it), and it also hallucinated a bunch of other suggestions until I finally figured out what you need to do is to configure it to display "Time only" rather than "Data and Time", then change the "Time" format to display both data and time! Just to experiment, I then told Gemini about this fix and amusingly the response was basically "Good to know - this'll be useful for anyone reading this later"!

      More examples, from yesterday (these are not rare exceptions):

      1) I asked Gemini (generally considered one of the smartest models - better than ChatGPT, and rapidly taking away market share from it - 20% shift in last month or so) to look at the GitHub codebase for an Anthropic optimization challenge, to summarize and discuss etc, and it appeared to have looked at the codebase until I got more into the weeds and was questioning it where it got certain details from (what file), and it became apparent it had some (search based?) knowledge of the problem, but seemingly hadn't actually looked at it (wasn't able to?).

      2) I was asking Gemini about chemically fingerprinting (via impurities, isotopes) roman silver coins to the mines that produced the silver, and it confidently (as always) comes up with a bunch of academic references that it claimed made the connection, but none or references (which did at least exist) actually contained what it claimed (just partial information), and when I pointed this out it just kept throwing out different references.

      So, it's convenient to be able to chat with your "search engine" to drill down and clarify, etc, but a big time waste if a lot of it is hallucination.

      Search vs Chat has anyways really become a difference without a difference since Google now gives you the "AI Overview" (a diving off point into "AI Mode"), or you can just click on "AI Mode" in the first place - which is Gemini.

      • NoGravitas2 hours ago
        Another reason search vs chat has become a difference without a difference is that search results are full of highly-ranked AI slop. I was searching yesterday for a way to get a Gnome-style hot corner in Windows 11, and the top result falsely asserted that hot corners were a built-in feature, and pointed to non-existing settings to enable them.
    • sylware6 hours ago
      That makes me think about the development of much software out there: the development time is often several orders of magnitude smaller than its life cycle.
    • binary1326 hours ago
      The difference is that in the past that information had to come from what people wrote and are writing about, and now it can come from a derivative of an archive of what people once wrote, upon a time. So if they just stop doing that — whether because they must, or because they no longer have any reason to, or because they are now drowned out in a massive ocean of slop, or simply because they themselves have turned into slopslaves — no new information will be generated, only derivative slop, milled from derivative slop.

      I think we all understand that at this point, so I question deeply why anyone acts like they don’t.

    • linuxftw6 hours ago
      You're overestimating the mean person's ability to search the web effectively.
      • jgalt2126 hours ago
        And perhaps both are overestimating the mean person's ability to detect a hallucinated solution vs a genuine one.
        • linuxftw6 hours ago
          I think hallucination is grossly overstated as a problem at this point, most models will actively search the web and reason about the results. You're much more likely to get the incorrect solution browsing stack overflow than you are asking AI.
    • avaer6 hours ago
      The difference is LLMs let you "run Google" on your own data with copy paste. Which you could not do before.

      If you're using ChatGPT like you use Google then I agree with you. But IMO comparing ChatGPT to Google means you haven't had the "aha" moment yet.

      As a concrete example, a lot of my work these days involves asking ChatGPT to produce me an obscure micro-app to process my custom data. Which it usually does and renders in one shot. This app could not exist before I asked for it. The productivity gains over coding this myself are immense. And the experience is nothing like using Google.

      • MadDemon5 hours ago
        It's great for you that you were able to create this app that wouldn't otherwise exist, but does that app dramatically increase your overall productivity? And can you imagine that a significant chunk of the population would experience a similar productivity boost? I'm not saying that there is no productivity gain, but big tech has promised MASSIVE productivity gains. I just feel like the productivity gains are more modest for now, similar to other technologies. Maybe one day AGI comes along and changes everything, but I feel like we'll need a few more break throughs before that.
      • bryanrasmussen6 hours ago
        there have been various solutions that allow you to "run Google" on your own data for quite a while, what is the "aha" moment related to that?
        • avaer6 hours ago
          By "run Google" I don't mean "index your data into a search engine". I mean the experience of being able to semantically extract and process data at "internet scale", in seconds.

          It might seem quaint today but one example might be fact checking a piece of text.

          Google effectively has a pretty good internal representation of whether any particular document concords with other documents on the internet, on account of massive crawling and indexing over decades. But LLMs let you run the same process nearly instantly on your own data, and that's the difference.

        • dumbmrblah6 hours ago
          But before I needed to be a programmer or have a team of data analysts analyze the data for me, now I can just process that data on my own and gather my own insights. That was my aha moment.
  • tony-vlcek7 hours ago
    > We will quickly lose even the social permission to take something like energy [...]

    A way to drum up sense of urgency without mentioning that it's the patience of the investors (and _not_ the public) that will be the limiting factor here?

    • whazor6 hours ago
      This looks more like an attempt of gaining scarce electricity.

      If a country/state has to choice of giving power to data center A or B, it makes sense for Satya to make statements about how only Microsoft provides the most AI value

      • tony-vlcek6 hours ago
        Well, even though electricity is a commodity it still needs to be bought. My point is that people funding this will run out of patience paying for the electricity long before the public/regulators will need to step in a decided how much of it you can buy.

        I guess you could always just use a fraction of the billions in investments and whip up a few new power plants. [1]

        [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx25v2d7zexo

      • throwthrowuknow5 hours ago
        They don’t need to choose, just let them build their own power generation capacity.

        What the hell is going on in this type of argument anyways? Utilities are normally private businesses so what does the state have to do with it?

    • marcyb5st6 hours ago
      Similar to my thoughts. If we are still scrambling to find stuff the average Joe finds useful, the 100s of Billions poured into this gold rush are wasted (IMHO).
      • 2sk216 hours ago
        This reminds me of the early 1980s, when home PCs were still very new, the main use cases that vendors used to promote were managing household accounts and recipes. These use cases were extremely unimpressive for most ordinary people. It took a long time for PCs to become ubiquitous in homes - until gaming and the web became common.
        • rchaud4 hours ago
          The web was an academic project funded by modest research grants, requiring nowhere near the level of capital and electricity AI requires. The output of that research emphasized open source and decentralized implementation, which is antithetical to corporate AI models that are predicated on vendor lock-in.

          Consumer adoption also happened organically over time, catalyzed mostly by email and instant messaging, which were huge technological leaps over fax and snail mail. IBM and DEC didn't have to jam "Internet" buttons all over their operating systems to juice usage (although AOL certainly contributed to filling landfills with their free trial disks).

        • goalieca4 hours ago
          Well, LLM is mainly aiming to “Improve” what we can already do. It’s not really opening up new use cases the way the personal computer, the smart phone, or the Internet did.
      • fuzzfactor6 hours ago
        Ideally, zillions of consumers have been languishing for years and when the time is right they're all collectively chomping at the bit when a new highly-affordable technology comes along that they just can't get enough of.

        This isn't one of those times.

      • Spooky236 hours ago
        People said the same thing 30 years ago about the internet.

        I’m spending $400/mo on AI subscriptions at this point. Probably the best money I spend.

        • malfist6 hours ago
          And the people who bought a lot of shovels during the gold rush thought they were making the smartest money move
          • Spooky234 hours ago
            Dude, I'm getting a shovel factory for practically nothing. I'm easily realizing 5x value on that investment.

            I'd say for an estate that I am the executor of, it probably saved me $50k in legal fees and other expenses because it helped me analyze a novel problem and organize it ask the right questions of counsel.

            Another scenario i had to deal with i needed a mobile app to do something very specific for a few weeks. I specced out a very narrowly useful iphone application, built it out on the train from DC to NYC, and had it working to my satisfaction the next day. Is it production code ready for primetime? Absolutely not. But I got capability to do what I needed super quickly that my skill level is no longer up to the task to accomplish!

            IMO, these things let you make power tools, but your ability to get value is capped by your ability to ask the right questions. In the enterprise, they are going to kill lots of stupid legacy software that doesn't add alot of value, but adds alot of cost.

            • keyringlight2 hours ago
              I'd wonder how much that scales up though for the benefit of the companies that are each investing hundreds of billions and hope to see a net return. How many developers like you (presumably less of you seeing as each is more productive) or enterprises you work for paying fees (along with slimming down legacy costs paid to someone) does it take to get up in the 12 digit range?
          • red-iron-pine4 hours ago
            some of them did make it big, and towns and building are named after them

            but lots of folks were broke as hell and miserable

        • blibble6 hours ago
          that $400/month is essentially the introductory price, subsided in an attempt to grab market share

          that $400 will go up by at least a factor of 10 once the bubble pops

          would you be prepared to pay $4000/month?

          • Spooky234 hours ago
            Nah, I'll move much of it locally when it becomes cost justified to do so.

            I doubt that the exponential cost explosion day is coming. When the bubble pops, the bankruptcies of many of the players will push the costs down. US policy has provided a powerful incentive for Chinese players to do what Google has done and have a lower cost delivery model anyway.

    • malfist6 hours ago
      Also note that he's not saying Microsoft must find a use for AI, but that customers should.

      He's blaming customers that his product isn't hitting the valuation he wants.

    • 6 hours ago
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  • Tepix6 hours ago
    After increasing the prices of RAM, GPUs and flash memory for the entire world, energy cost is next. Thanks AI!
    • mossTechnician6 hours ago
      Energy costs have already risen substantially[0], but the increase has been slower, and it's garnered a bit less media attention than the recent leap in PC hardware prices.

      [0]: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-elec...

      • rsynnott6 hours ago
        Also, consumer energy costs tend to be hedged, so an increase in wholesale will generally only have delayed effect on more visible consumer rates. This was very noticeable in Europe after the Russian invasion of Ukraine; while spot market rates went very high very quickly, it took about a year for consumer rates to peak in most places.
      • MSFT_Edging6 hours ago
        They built an oceanic fiber termination down in South Carolina. Data centers are starting to move in. Now they'll charge you $12/KWh during your peak usage.
        • marcyb5st5 hours ago
          You really said 12 USD/KWh? Time to put solar panels/batteries over there. Even if you resell to the grid at 1/10th of that you recoup the investment in O(months) and not O(years)
    • TwoNineA6 hours ago
      But wait! There is more!

      Copilot Notepad.

      Copilot MS Paint.

      Copilot Shoes.

      Copilot Ice Cream.

      • 6 hours ago
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      • baal80spam6 hours ago
        And eventually Copilot Bluescreen.
      • psychoslave6 hours ago
        I'm still waiting for copilot copilot though
      • arkensaw6 hours ago
        > Copilot Shoes

        LOL. "Looks like you're trying to tie those laces - would you like me to order you velcro?"

  • keeda2 hours ago
    This will sound pedantic but I'll explain why it matters: the exact wording is "We need to do something useful with AI", because the current (editorialized) submission title (of an already slanted article) makes it sound like people don't know what to do with AI.

    We already know many useful things to do; there are already 10,000 startups (9789 out of YC alone, 4423 of which are coding-related) doing various ostensibly useful things. And there a ton more use-cases discussed in the comments here and elsewhere. But because of the headline the discussion is missing the much more important point!

    Satya's point is, we need to do things that improve people's lives. Specific quotes from TFA:

    >... "do something useful that changes the outcomes of people and communities and countries and industries."

    > "We will quickly lose even the social permission to take something like energy, which is a scarce resource, and use it to generate these tokens, if these tokens are not improving health outcomes, education outcomes, public sector efficiency, private sector competitiveness, across all sectors, small and large, right?" said Nadella. "And that, to me, is ultimately the goal."

    Which is absolutely right. He's the only Big Tech CEO I've heard of who constantly harps on the human and economic benefit angle of LLMs, whereas so many others talk -- maybe in indirect ways -- about replacing people and/or only improving company outcomes (which are usually better for only a small group of people: the shareholders.)

    He's still a CEO, so I have no illusions that he's any different from the rest of them (he's presided over a ton of layoffs, after all.) But he seems to be the only CEO whose interests appear to be aligned with the rest of ours.

    • tempodox2 hours ago
      The number of startups is no proof they’re doing anything useful. It only proves that the founders think they can make money with it.
      • keeda34 minutes ago
        And potentially their investors, for the startups that got funding. And maybe their customers, for the startups that are already hitting millions in ARR in a year or less. There are some of the numbers out there worth looking up.

        Is your contention that we don't already know how to do useful things with AI?

  • Gazoche5 hours ago
    Evangelists keep insisting that healthcare is one of the things that AI will revolutionize in the coming years, but I just don't get it. To me it's not even clear what they mean by "AI" in this context (and I'm not convinced it's clear to them either).

    If they mean "machine learning", then sure there are application in cancer detection and the like, but development there has been moving at a steady pace for decades and has nothing to do with the current hype wave of GenAI, so there's no reason to assume it's suddenly going to go exponential. I used to work in that field and I'm confident it's not going to change overnight: progress there is slow not because of the models, but because data is sparse and noisy, labels are even sparser and noisier, deployment procedures are rigid and legal compliance is a nightmare.

    If they mean "generative AI", then how is that supposed to work exactly? Asking LLMs for medical diagnosis is no better than asking "the Internet at large". They only return the most statistically likely output given their training corpus (that corpus being the Internet as a whole), so it's more likely your diagnosis will be based on a random Reddit comment that the LLMs has ingested somewhere, than an actual medical paper.

    The only plausible applications I can think of are tasks such as summarizing papers, acting as augmented search engines for datasets and papers, or maybe automating some menial administrative tasks. Useful, for sure, but not revolutionary.

    • wrenky3 hours ago
      Totally anecdotal, but recently my wife had to go to urgent care for something wrong with her ankle- They send a 4-5 page sheet of arcane terms and diagnoses to her care app (relayed to me via text) and I just slammed that into gemnai and asked "what does this mean" and it did quite well! Gave possible causes, what it meant for her in the long term vs short term, and ways to prevent it. I had a better understanding of what was wrong before the doctor even got to my wife in the waiting room!

      Obviously still double check things, but it was moment of clarity I hadn't really had before this. Still needed the doctor and all the experience to diagnose and fix things, but relaying that info back to me is something doctors are only okay at. Try it out! take a summary sheet of a recent visit or incident and feed it in.

    • NoGravitas2 hours ago
      > Evangelists keep insisting that healthcare is one of the things that AI will revolutionize in the coming years, but I just don't get it. To me it's not even clear what they mean by "AI" in this context (and I'm not convinced it's clear to them either).

      It's a more-or-less intentional equivocation between different meanings of AI, as you note, machine learning vs generative AI. They want to point at the real but unsexy potential of ML for medical use in order to pump up the perceived value of LLMs. They want to imply to the general public and investors that LLMs are going to cure cancer.

    • croon5 hours ago
      The most statistically likely output given your diligently described symtoms could still be useful. The prohibitive cost in healthcare in general is likely your time with your doctor. If you could "consult" with a dumb LLM beforehand and give the doctor a couple of different venues to look at that they can then shoot down or further explore could likely save time rather than them having to prod you for exhaustive binary tree exploring.

      This from a huge LLM skeptic in general. It doesn't have to be right all the time if it in aggregate saves time doctors can spend diagnosing you.

      • Gazoche5 hours ago
        Sure, but what confidence do you have that what the "dumb" LLM says is worth any salt ? It's no different than aggregating the results of a Reddit search, or perhaps even worse because LLMs lack the intent or common sense filter of a human. It could be combining two contradicting sources in a way that only makes sense statistically, or regurgitate joke answers without understanding context (the infamous "you should eat at least one small rock per day").
      • NoGravitas2 hours ago
        Realistically the more likely use will be medical transcription - making an official record of doctors' patient notes. The inevitable errors will reduce the quality of patient care, but they will let doctors see more patients in a day, which is what the healthcare companies care about.
      • wosined5 hours ago
        Such "AI" has already existed for decades. Look up expert systems.
  • pupppet4 hours ago
    Let’s rename our breadwinner MS Office to the product we’re still trying to find a use for.
  • Someone6 hours ago
    “Buy our stuff, or we’re seen as wasting energy and helping to destroy the world”?

    That’s courageous from a CEO of an US company, where the current government doesn’t see burning more oil as being bad for the planet, and is willing to punish everyone who thinks otherwise.

  • HarHarVeryFunny5 hours ago
    Interesting statement coming from Nadella - almost that AI is a solution looking for a problem, or at least looking for a problem that justifies the cost in terms of the resources (energy, memory chips, fab capacity) it is sucking up, not to mention looming societal disruption.

    There obviously are some compelling use cases for "AI", but it's certainly questionable if any of those are really making people's lives any better, especially if you take "AI" to mean LLMs and fake videos, not more bespoke uses like AlphaFold which is not only beneficial, but also not a resource hog.

  • amaian hour ago
    Why doesn't he ask an AI what it wants to do?
  • JanneVee5 hours ago
    They have made huge investments into hardware so everyone is getting more expensive hardware, and now begging everyone else to make their investments worthwhile. Don't mind that they are driving up prices for hardware and requiring new hardware for Windows 11 upgrades. I'm suspecting that we don't have enough memory manufacturing capacity in the world to do both AI datacenters and replace all hardware that they made obsolete with their forced upgrade. AI didn't turn everyone into paperclips but it turned everyone to memory and AI processors in datacenters that can't be powered or has no useful economic utility.
  • eightman6 hours ago
    The use case for AI is spam
    • avaer6 hours ago
      Don't forget porn.

      Though it's a use case people like Satya will want to avoid for reasons.

      • fkdk6 hours ago
        "Why d'you think the net was born? Porn, Porn, Porn"
    • red-iron-pine3 hours ago
      spam implies low effort BS used in a low-hanging-fruit sense

      LLMs will be used for aggressive, yet incredibly subtle manipulation, consensus building, and response tracking.

      20-40% of social media is already bots, and in the future it is likely you will not be able to reply to anything anywhere without a bot either 1) responding, or 2) logging and sending your response to multiple parties instantly.

      If the Stasi had LLMs the Berlin Wall would have never fallen

  • reilly30006 hours ago
    I get it. A stunning indictment of our times… but there is something useful AI could be doing that MS has dropped the ball on: personal finance management. I should be able to have copilot grab all my transactions, build me budgets, show me what if scenarios, raise concerns, and help me meet my goals. It should be able to work in Excel where I can see and steer it. The math should be validated with several checks and the output needs to be trustworthy. Ship a free personal finance agent harness and you have your killer app.

    I think there are business reasons why they wouldn’t do that, and that makes me sad.

    • coffeefirst6 hours ago
      I have a personal budget app and every so often I try and get the latest model to compare my data against the statements and find any discrepancies.

      Every time it hallucinates visits to Starbucks.

      I never go to Starbucks, it’s just a probable finding given the words in the question.

      This should work. I want it to work. But until it can do this correctly all analysis capabilities should be suspect.

      • HarHarVeryFunny5 hours ago
        Maybe it's the model you are using.

        Even a year ago I had success with Claude giving it a photo of my credit card bill and asking it to give me repeating category subtotals, and it flawlessly OCR'd it and wrote a Python program to do as asked, giving me the output.

        I'd imagine if you asked it to do a comparison to something else it'd also write code to do it, so get it right (and certainly would if you explicity asked).

        • coffeefirst5 hours ago
          Maybe. But it’s always Claude. I even tried copying the text in directly to take OCR out of consideration. It still didn’t work very well.
    • malfist6 hours ago
      Have you tried to get LLMs to do math or quantitative analysis? They're remarkably poor at it
  • lunias5 hours ago
    They definitely don't build CEOs like they used to...
  • morelandjs6 hours ago
    There’s more to AI than foundation models. I think you are going to see meaningful progress on chore automation over the next decade through a combination of algorithmic and mechanical improvements, and it will measurably improve our lives. Recently got a Matic robot (awesome btw), and I no longer feel the need to vacuum my floors. It’s not life changing, but it’s an appreciable convenience upgrade. The capabilities feel like a peek into the future.
    • AlexeyBrin3 hours ago
      > Recently got a Matic robot

      This probably has nothing to do with gen AI (the kind of AI Nadela is speaking about).

  • 6 hours ago
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  • throwaway1324486 hours ago
    This is what happens in VC-driven hype cycles that are all about the technology, when VC orthodoxy is that it’s not about technology but utility (see PMF etc).
  • marcyb5st6 hours ago
    My take is that if we are still scrambling to find something objectively useful (as recognized by the median person) then we really are in AI bubble territory.

    When non techie friends/family bring up AI there are two major topics: 1) the amount of slop is off the charts and 2) said slop is getting harder to recognize which is scary. Sometimes they mention a bit of help in daily tasks at work, but nothing major.

    • 1010086 hours ago
      My non tech friends/family use AI to ask for silly stuff (they could google it), or just to ask silly questions and see how they react. We have a relative not that famous but maybe known in a niche and they spent like a whole weekendd sending screenshots of GPT, where they asked if this person was known, who was this person, etc.

      They don't find AI useful, just a toy. Is their fault? Maybe.

  • Driver47326 hours ago
    Wasn't Satya saying earlier that AI would replace knowledge workers? Now he's saying we need to find something useful for AI...lol. Quite the reversal.
    • zzrrtan hour ago
      Both could be true under the “bullshit jobs” theory (though I have not actually read the book, and it seems many say the uselessness of jobs was exaggerated by Graeber.)
  • cmxchan hour ago
    Scale it back and give us the ability to make our own AI rigs?
  • haritha-j6 hours ago
    Investor hype bubbles kill technologies. If we let tech mature at a reasonable pace, we would actually get there faster in the long run. There are real applications of AI that aren't ready yet. All the hype bubble has done is push out unnecessary and broken AI, eroding consumer trust, use up valuable resources, eroding public trust, hype up ability to destroy jobs, causing public discontent, and push out unsafe AI that has real societal harm.
  • shishcat6 hours ago
    I agree with this dicussion, AI should be used for improving, researching, and as he says, do something useful that changes the outcomes of people and communities and countries and industries. BUT IT'S SATYA NADELLA SAYING IT! The person whose company owns Copilot, Copilot in Bing, Copilot for Word, Copilot for Dynamics 365 Supply Chain...

    With all this useless slop, he’s literally arguing against his own point.

  • NoGravitas2 hours ago
    "It's not a bubble as long as you believe in it!"
  • kodyo5 hours ago
    "Quick, guys, find something useful" coming from a CEO who's bet his company on an idea should be a market top signal, right?

    And no, I'm not saying the technology is bad. The business isn't going swimmingly, though.

  • vdupras7 hours ago
    It seems like quite a qualitative jump in consensus. Wasn't the previous consensus "you're using it wrong"?
    • jsheard6 hours ago
      This still reads as "you're using it wrong" to me. Nadella's position is that AI spending would easily justify itself if only the plebs would use it as much as he thinks they should. If only the common man could see the prophetic vision of a coked out tech executive.
  • linuxftw6 hours ago
    Things AI is already better at than (many/most) humans: Customer service (chat, phone), writing software, writing docs about software, computer graphics (animation, images), driving cars.

    There are plenty of uses for AI. Right now, the industry is heavily spending on training new models, improving performance of existing software and hardware, and trying to create niche products.

    Power usage for inference will drop dramatically over the next decade, and more models are going to run on-device rather than in the cloud. AI is only going to become more ubiquitous, there's 0% chance it 'fails' and we return to 2020.

    • sjajshha6 hours ago
      > Customer service (chat, phone)

      Only because companies have been cutting costs for decades here. This is not a good argument for AI.

      > writing software

      If you mean typing characters quickly, yes. Otherwise, there’s still a lot of employed devs, with many AI companies hiring.

      > writing docs about software

      The most useful docs are there because they contain info you cannot determine from the code. AI is not able to do this.

      > computer graphics (animation, images)

      If you are producing slop, yes.

      > driving cars

      True, but only because of its improved physical awareness. ie it’s a mechanical gain (better eyes, ears, etc) not an intellectual one (interpreting that information). Self driving cars aren’t LLMs and not really applicable here. Entirely different field.

      > AI is only going to become more ubiquitous, there's 0% chance it 'fails' and we return to 2020

      Absolutely true. But not for the reasons you think.

      • linuxftw5 hours ago
        Wrong on all accounts.
  • agentultra6 hours ago
    > … it amplifies your cognitive abilities…

    And yet studies show the opposite [0].

    [0] https://www.media.mit.edu/publications/your-brain-on-chatgpt...

    • cptaj6 hours ago
      Study. Not studies. And with very limited methodology.
      • agentultra4 hours ago
        There’s enough going on to call out Satya here for hyping up a nothing burger. It’s not as world-changing as he makes it sound or else he wouldn’t be imploring people to find a use for it.

        His bottom line depends on this bet that everyone is going to depend on AI and pay Microslop rent to use it.

        https://scholar.google.ca/scholar?q=cognitive+effects+of+ai+...

  • jordemort5 hours ago
    LOL, fuck all the way off, Satya
  • api6 hours ago
    Energy doesn’t take “social permission,” but it costs money. Translation for this is: we need to make AI make money or the bubble will collapse.

    I’ve been predicting for a while: free or cheap AI will enshittify and become an addictive ad medium with nerfed capabilities. If you want actually good AI you will have to pay for it, either a much heftier fee or buying or renting compute to run your own. In other words you’ll be paying what it actually costs, so this is really just the disappearance of the bubble subsidy.

  • blibble6 hours ago
    good luck with that
  • lvl1556 hours ago
    For 96% of the population, AI will not boost production. Generally speaking people are too stupid to use AI properly at least for awhile.
    • remix20006 hours ago
      GenAI is only useful to bump terrible up to mediocre, so it'd be really stupid to spend time honing one's prompting skills. And as you noticed, so far 96% of the population agrees.
      • lvl1556 hours ago
        It’s really not going to bump up terribles to mediocres. It’s only going to mask the terribles and make it harder to assess intelligence and talent. Underlying human intelligence is not going to get a boost from AI. Intelligence is mostly innate. I would even argue that AI will make average humans marginally dumber for the most part.
    • TwoNineA6 hours ago
      I really hate condascending and arrogant stuff like "Generally speaking people are too stupid to use AI properly at least for awhile". There are plenty of tech illiterate people that are far from being "stupid" and they might not care about or like AI. They just need to send emails to family, share photos and videos and have a video call from time to time. For them, AI is worthless.

      But they aren't stupid. You sound like a tech bro.

      • lvl1556 hours ago
        I am not being condescending. I am part of that 96%. I am admitting I am too stupid to use AI as it is set up right now.
      • kodyo4 hours ago
        That's not even the point, though. Those smart-but-not-techy people are not going to grow GDP at the pace that Satya Nadella needs them to in order to keep his KPIs going up and to the right, and he's getting pissed.

        That's the problem.

  • glimshe6 hours ago
    When I read HN comments where people say "AI sux, AI is useless, AI is a waste of time", I think I must be living in a different universe. Maybe Hacker News is a dimensional portal between my reality and other people's.

    Hi there, friends from another dimension! In my reality, there's a cold front coming from the north. Healthcare is expensive and politics are a mess. But AI? It hallucinates sometimes but it's so much better for searching, ad hoc consultation and as a code assistant than anything I've ever seen. It's not perfect, but it saved me SO much time I decided to pay for it. I'm a penny pincher, so I wouldn't be paying for it otherwise.

    I think Satya is talking about cost/benefit. AI is incredibly useful but also incredibly expensive. I think we still need to find the right balance (perhaps slower model releases), but there's no way we'll put the genie back in the bottle.

    I hope your AI gets better! Talk to you later!

    • an0malous6 hours ago
      Likewise I keep seeing all these comments on HN about how AI is revolutionary and all these AI skeptics are just haters. I really want to understand what this gap is between the believers and skeptics.

      I have access to all the popular AI tools from work for free, I use them for the same cases you mentioned like search, consultation, a better StackOverflow, and autocomplete. It’s definitely useful but I would describe that as incrementally useful, not revolutionary.

      Satya is saying that AI needs to start doing more than vibe coding and autocomplete, there’s probably half a trillion invested into the technology worldwide now and it’s not enough for AI to be a good coding assistant. It needs to replace customer support, radiologists, and many other professions to justify the unprecedented level of investment its garnered.

    • vdupras6 hours ago
      Is your AI faulty? Did you bother asking it for a sentiment analysis of the comments here before drawing your conclusions? That's not what the comments here are saying.