I am to the left politically, but I do not think UBI can work in practice for the majority of population due to human nature and the resulting lack of purpose. People do seem to have an innate need for purpose, and most people need one imposed on them by circumstances, it would seem.
The % of people who will flourish and pursue their passions, given the means to pursue any higher purpose.. is stunningly low. They are the same people that are high-agency, intelligent, driven and will hustle in any job anyway.
The best case outcome for the majority is sitting on their couch consuming AI slop entertainment infinitely, and I am not optimistic we'd even land there.
The COVID bubble was the closest we've come in the US in terms of people having more time on their hands with less financial concerns (stimulus checks, employers subsidized to make payroll, unemployment payment increases, unemployment expiration extensions, federal benefit income caps raised, increased healthcare subsidies, student loan payment pauses, eviction moratoriums, etc etc). Unfortunately it seemed the outcome was less of human flourishing and more an increase in general disorder & disaffection.
Likewise, after Capital having financed trillions in investment to deliver AGI is not going to hand over the money to find UBI willingly.
Even people in the middle seem to be easily swayed by allegations of waste/scams in government benefits programs.
Quite the opposite, capitalism even enforces useless work because it’s the main source of income.
That’s why all these AI bros dreams of AI benefits are BS unless they think they could get rid of capitalism
If the work was really so useless, companies would love to become leaner (i.e. fire the employees who do useless work). It's rather the government who by its control freakery introduces lots of red tape for companies.
Perhaps surprisingly, humans don't object to that. Our human intelligence works by subtracting what we can predict from the inputs and then focusing on the portion that remains.
So if AI either prevents interactions with humans or makes them more predictable, then human minds just ... stop. Literally. Humans won't do anything anymore.
UBI will either fail, or it will succeed and humans will just stop.
Bezos does not have a castle filled with a scrooge mcduck moneypool. There are not castles filled with grain that could otherwise be used to feed the starving peasants.
If you have money you generally don't want it to sit around and depreciate instead of investing into real-estate, private equity, etc. directly or indirectly.
Corruption of politics would be much harder, too.
What “money” velocity would be higher? Some of these companies have very little profit compared to wealth.
As far as feeding people, he could single handidly fund SNAP for a year and still have 100 billion plus.
Do you realize jeff bezos was a billionaire long before amazon recorded a profit? So quite literally no, this is not true.
If you actually introduced your wet dream billionaire wealth tax that's going to pay for everything forever, all these people would be forced to go to the market at the same time and sell their assets while every other billionaire is also going to be in the same position at the same time, so who are they selling to? The market would crash (also incidentally impacting all your middle class retirement plans) destroying billions upon billions of dollars in wealth. But OK, let's say you get this money now, let's pretend you could get enough, and the government starts spending it on entitlement programs--what you have just done is convert investment into consumption. What do you expect to happen in this case? I'd expect surging inflation.
Society effectively consumes everything that we produce. If we want to consume more, we need to produce more. The government can put their finger on the scale as to what is produced and who consumes it, the government can put policies in place that lead to additional production via removing obstacles from productive activities, introducing obstacles to unproductive activities, making investments or subsidies, etc. but all of this is more complicated and messy, it needs to be done intelligently and carries risk of distorting market realities leading to unintended consequences. This is called "governing" and it's what politicians are supposed to be doing. Outsiders who want power but can't effectively govern are always trying to sell people on these "one weird trick" narratives of easy fixes to hard problems.
Bezos has, I believe, two jets and three yachts along with a number a large homes with large household staff. A lot for a person to be sure, but most of his wealth is unrealized investment in a company that delivers goods to hundreds of millions of people's homes and powers countless tech companies that are used by billions of people. Taking his boats and planes away is just not going to move the needle, it's not going to make groceries cheaper or reduce the price of college tuition or add housing stock (aside from a handful of luxury homes in a couple of neighborhoods around the wold) or add any new doctors to the medical field. Certainly taxes can be increased, but no one should expect this to make a real dent in the budget. We got into this situation by decades of taking the easy route, so of course people are looking for easy solutions.
This is the exact same kind of magical thinking that the right uses to convince people that their life would be oh so much better if they just kicked out all the immigrants. There is no magic bullet, most spending by the government is on the middle class, most consumption is by the middle class (this is even more dramatic if you measure this in real world physical goods terms rather than including "luxury" markup on spending by the upper middle class). This is a huge group, hundreds of millions, that collectively consumes an unfathomable amount of resources, and moving some numbers around on a few computers in downtown Manhattan is not going to change this.
/s
The anti-freeloader impulse is one of the easiest ways to spur people to action. Would that go away or be intensified under UBI?
would people cease to be charitable after a tragedy because they expect UBI to handle it?
Look at France, it seems like the biggest protests now are when it is suggested their retirement program is unsustainable and they should phase in a higher retirement age. And these programs across the west are becoming unsustainable because retirement ages were set decades ago at levels 0-10 years below life expectancy, and that gap has now grown to 20 years with a lower employed:retired ratio.
One of the benefits of status being associated with making money is that it tends to drive positive-sum productive behavior rather than zero-sum destructive behavior.
"Charity" for the wealthy is really nothing to do with charity. It's a social-climbing game and part of a coordinated PR/media campaign. Charity will get you into rooms with people with true wealth and power far easier than anything else you can do.
Not all UBIs are created equal. Broadly speaking, there are left-wing and right-wing forms of UBI.
The left-wing UBI is a form of wealth redistribution to reduce extreme wealth inequality. It means giving people enough to meet their needs and have a basic quality of life. This probably won't work if the rest of society remains the same. For example, consider military personnel. If you don't live in barracks you get BAH. Landlords around a base know this so will always know what to charge. Increase the BAH and the rents go up. You would likely have similar problems with UBI unless you also solve the supply of these kinds of needs as well.
The right-wing form of UBI is simply an excuse to destroy the social welfare state and social safety net. Proponents will argue it's more efficient to simply replace everything like disability pensions, food stamps, Medicaid, etc with a UBI payment and letting people twist in the wind of private sector providers for everything.
That might make sense but, for example, living with a disability makes everything more expensive and you might have few or no options for work. We also allow disabled people to get paid sub-minimum wage as yet another form of exploitation.
As another example, we allow employers to pay below a living wage them SNAP benefits, which is twofold corporate welfare. It reduces Walmart's labor costs AND they end up spending SNAP at Walmart. And then we make political decisions about what they can spend SNAP on.
So it's a likely outcome that any right-wing UBI implementation will end up deciding what you can and can't spend money on.
With infinite welfare, the dominant culture will be the one that is able to reproduce as much as possible, perhaps through cloning? We are already seeing IVF, surrogate mothers and other sorts of cloning/eugenics sexual strategies emerge, just not on a dominant level yet.
If it wasn't for cloning, I would say it would look more like Calhoun's rat utopia due to sex-based competition.
>The anti-freeloader impulse is one of the easiest ways to spur people to action.
I would say this depends on culture. Only industrious countries tend to have culture with this impulse.
If “infinite welfare” unavoidably led to a reproductive feedback loop, the richest, safest societies would already be there, which we don’t see.
Your comment seems to rest on the unstated assumption that hierarchy between humans is an essential stabilizing force, and that abundance without it is unsustainable. I don’t think that’s an empirically settled conclusion.
Here's Orwell speaking on the whole thing:
> "An argument that Socialists ought to be prepared to meet, since it is brought up constantly both by Christian apologists and by neo-pessimists such as James Burnham, is the alleged immutability of ‘human nature’. Socialists are accused—I think without justification—of assuming that Man is perfectible, and it is then pointed out that human history is in fact one long tale of greed, robbery and oppression. Man, it is said, will always try to get the better of his neighbour, he will always hog as much property as possible for himself and his family. Man is of his nature sinful, and cannot be made virtuous by Act of Parliament. Therefore, though economic exploitation can be controlled to some extent, the classless society is for ever impossible.
> "The proper answer, it seems to me, is that this argument belongs to the Stone Age. It presupposes that material goods will always be desperately scarce. The power hunger of human beings does indeed present a serious problem, but there is no reason for thinking that the greed for mere wealth is a permanent human characteristic. We are selfish in economic matters because we all live in terror of poverty. But when a commodity is not scarce, no one tries to grab more than his fair share of it. No one tries to make a corner in air, for instance. The millionaire as well as the beggar is content with just so much air as he can breathe. Or, again, water. In this country we are not troubled by lack of water. If anything we have too much of it, especially on Bank Holidays. As a result water hardly enters into our consciousness. Yet in dried-up countries like North Africa, what jealousies, what hatreds, what appalling crimes the lack of water can cause! So also with any other kind of goods. If they were made plentiful, as they so easily might be, there is no reason to think that the supposed acquisitive instincts of the human being could not be bred out in a couple of generations. And after all, if human nature never changes, why is it that we not only don’t practise cannibalism any longer, but don’t even want to?"
https://fortune.com/2026/01/12/elon-musk-retirement-savings-...
Just a few hundred billion more
We’re so close to interplanetary civilisation bro
Just hundreds of billions more, just one last time
China is investing in infrastructure and making sure its citizens have enough to eat and a roof over their heads. The US is starving school children, unleashing its own Gestapo on its citizens, letting its citizens die, doing untold damage to every other country on Earth and letting our infrastructure rot so Jeff Bezos can buy a 4th megayacht.
Automation and AI could be a good thing for society. We could all enjoy the benefits by having to work less and having to less menial and/or dangerous work. But it won't work that here. It'll be used to displace workers, increase the wealth of th etop 0.01% and suppress the wages of reamining workers.
I'm unconvinced the trillions invested in AI will ever see a return. But even if it produces value in some way, will it even matter if nobody has any money to buy anything?