23 pointsby ryan_j_naughton7 hours ago1 comment
  • alephnerd6 hours ago
    One other issue that isn't mentioned, but has been voiced to me by my friends in the space is the rise of Data Science as an undergraduate discipline.

    Econometrics has always had better hiring stats than other econ subdisciplines, and historically, most Econ adjacent jobs were largely data cleansing, analysis, and benchmarking.

    On the other hand, math, statistics, and coding is hard, and a large portion of Econ undergrads (primarily at non-target programs) lacked the wherewithal or ability to tackle Baby Rudin or a data structures class. In a lot of cases, their professors themselves lacked significant mathematical or econometrics sophistication.

    What ended up happening was a glut of Econ majors who lacked the skills that were in demand in the Econ space (anything econometrics adjacent).

    Now that Data Science as an undergrad disciple has arisen, a number of jobs that historically would have hired an Econ major even if they lacked some technical sophistication have switched to hiring Data Science majors. Additionally, Econ majors who had significant maths/stats/cs backgrounds usually ended up double majoring or minoring in those disciplines already.

    And finally, at the top Econ undergrad programs, departments had already been extremely adamant about requiring their students to build maths/stats/cs sophistication beyond being a Stata monkey.

    The fact that even undergrad Government majors at Harvard are expected to do statistical modelling at the statistics major level, and often take CS109 as well highlights how deeply computational the social science has become, and a large portion of undergrads just aren't cut out for that.

    To paraphrase my friend: If you as an Econ undergrad cannot tackle Baby Rudin by your senior year, you have no employable future aside maybe law school, which itself is an increasingly losing proposition. You most likely won't do real analysis at the Baby Rudin level on a daily basis (if ever), but it's a positive signal about your mathematical and computational ability.

    That said, CS/CE/EECS grads shouldn't be high and mighty either. I've seen programs in the US increasingly make core classes like circuits, computer architecture, data structures, OS, systems programming, and even algorithms beyond discrete structures optional.

    The ideal of democratizing education is great, but should not come at the expense of foundational knowledge.

    • ActorNightly6 hours ago
      Its simpler then that - everyone is facing a hiring crunch because everyone is preparing to weather massive economic downturn as foreign investment pulls out of United States.
      • PeterStuer6 hours ago
        Where do you see 'foreign investment pulling out of the US'? Do you have a link to some data?
        • toomuchtodo5 hours ago
          International equities: Global structural changes driving narrowing U.S. earnings growth exceptionalism - https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/... - November 19th, 2025

          Where to Go as the US Exceptionalism Trade Ends - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-06/where-... | https://archive.today/PSw9B - June 6th, 2025

          Remaking the World Through Exiting US Stocks - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-19/remaki... | https://archive.today/YqD5M - March 19th, 2025

          Did capital outflows from the U.S. already start? - https://globalecon.substack.com/p/did-capital-outflows-from-... - March 17th, 2025

          • alephnerd5 hours ago
            The UK hasn't been a significant option becuase LSE dealflow is dead, and China difficult because of capital controls, and much of the capital flow within China is dry powder from those investors who couldn't exit.

            As such, we have nowhere else to park other than the US, though there is an opportunity for opportunistic hedging.

            • toomuchtodo5 hours ago
              That might be your opinion, but the evidence is clear asset managers are rotating away from US centric investing via capital reallocation.
              • alephnerd5 hours ago
                Those same asset managers are my LPs and peers. It's hard enough making a broad ExChina strategy. Making an ExAmerica strategy is even harder given how lopsided the global equities market is.

                Furthermore, the articles you yourself provided are either marketing collateral for emerging markets stock (JPM) or opinion pieces by asset managers trying to vouch for their case.

                • toomuchtodo4 hours ago
                  I welcome any citations you're able to provide, I also have a Bloomberg terminal if you have a reference not public.
                  • smeeagain22 hours ago
                    If the terminals are saying "everyone is pulling out of US equities", that means those pulling the strings want people to start doing exactly that.

                    Monkey see, monkey do.

                    Makes perfect sense, and fits right into my prediction of a large market crash within the next 2-3 years.

                    Short BLK.

                  • alephnerdan hour ago
                    I'd say this article [0] is probably a good enough overview of my thinking - there essentially is a rebalancing, but largely within American markets, with funds flowing into either Money Markets or sector speicifc funds.

                    [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/us-equity-funds-see-weekly-...

        • throwaway869815 hours ago
          [dead]
        • ActorNightly5 hours ago
          All the data you need is in the bullshit that comes out of the White House, daily. Companies are not pulling out yet because nobody is certain, but the writing has been on the wall. Tech sector froze hiring and did layoffs specifically after the insane tariff policy when everyone realized that its no longer just memes anymore.

          For example, today, Jerome Powell just got indited. Its pretty clear that end of central bank independence is coming. Remember, higher up execs dgaf if US economy fails, they have their money bags. Once 2026 elections get cancelled and US goes full fascist, you are gonna see the shitstorm happen real time. On top of that, if US is in Tumroil, China will most likely invade Taiwan, since NATO wouldn't be able to respond, and bye bye all the stock market gains.

          Save this comment if you think im being extremely hyperbolic, and make sure to read it again in 2 years.

          • PeterStuer5 hours ago
            I am afraid your claims about foreign investment pulling out of the US will need more substantiated data.
            • estimator72922 hours ago
              Your personal disagreement is valid, but has no bearing on the objective reality the rest of us live in.
            • lcnPylGDnU4H9OF4 hours ago
              Perhaps you're intending to say that "a claim made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence" but that's a personal dismissal. The way this is phrased comes off a bit self-important; they don't really "need" that data because they don't "need" you to not dismiss their claim. I rather get the impression they don't care what you think and were just answering your question.
            • ActorNightly4 hours ago
              I mean its akin to me saying "hey there is a flood coming, people are preparing for it", and you saying you need to see stats on how many sandbags are being piled up.

              If you chose to remain optimistic, thats your decision.

          • nradov4 hours ago
            The Trump administration has threatened Jerome Powell (which is a stupid move) but so far he hasn't actually been indicted.
            • zug_zug3 hours ago
              Sure, but the fact that he's willing to do create false/inappropriate charges against the FED chairman is itself a signal to foreign investors how far the US is willing to go to increase the money supply (whereby decreasing the worth of any debts/holdings in USD). It signals an asset previously viewed as safe is now less safe.
      • alephnerd6 hours ago
        Not exactly, and I say this as someone on the boards of multiple companies and have previously been a hiring manager.

        It's a employer's market now and new grads in a number of disciples are increasingly underprepared aside from a handful of target programs.

        Furthermore, most companies can limit hiring to at most 15 target programs nationally and maybe 3-4 local programs and get by.

        For example, a program like UIUC graduates around 1200 CS and CE majors a year from a program with a 4-6% acceptance rate. Just limiting hiring only to UIUC undergrads who pass hiring standards would be enough to fill an entire new grad class. Same with UMich (~1.5k CS/CE undergrads a year), Cal (~1k CS/EECS undergrads a year), and a handful of other target programs.

        And if we feel those candidates are overpriced, we can arbitrage talent globally if needed.

        I've mentioned this multiple times on HN as well.

        Furthermore, the Econ hiring crisis has been going on for a decade.

        • ActorNightly5 hours ago
          You are missing the bigger picture.

          The stock market (which determines overall hiring) is propped up by large cap Tech, which is currently riding on AI, which is currently riding on TSMC.

          US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken.

          Every other metric that you are see is secondary to this. Big tech hired like crazy during pandemic to grow for cheap cost, and then fired a whole bunch of people later. Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries.

          And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen.

          • smeeagain2an hour ago
            I don't know what the other guy was getting at in his tapdancing response. Sounds like a typical military-industrial complex wingnut. He'll get his due in time.

            Let me red pill you bro.

            Politics, just like pro wrestling--and everything else today--is FAKE, SCRIPTED, and AI GENERATED.

            Has been for a LONG time. Ever since before you can remember. IT'S ALL FAKE.

            Just like a movie or other cinematic or TV production--or a magic show--it's all about manipulating people to think a certain way. That's the entire game, and it goes very deep. They're all actors, reading from the same script, working toward the same end.

            This includes all figures such as Trump, Xi, Putin as well, though it may be hard to understand how that's possible--but they are in fact reading from the same script written by the same people, for the same purpose.

            China will not invade Taiwan in the near future. That's coming, but it's many years off. Learn the script, and you will know this and much more. The purpose of all that noise is to cause you to react how you did. Notice how everyone started repeating that idea all at once? Pay attention when the herd all of a sudden starts moving in a new direction, repeating the same taglines; who told them to do that?

            You seem to halfway have a clue, but the road to truth through the forest of lies is long and tortuous and everyone needs a helping hand. Just remember IT'S ALL FAKE AND SCRIPTED. Trust nobody and nothing you're told--especially when it's what you want to hear.

            When they tell you all foreign investment is pulling out of the United States, what effect does that have? How does it cause you to react? That reaction is exactly what's desired by those who write and publish those headlines, across all media everywhere.

          • alephnerd5 hours ago
            As I mentioned, I am one of those people who makes asset management decisions.

            Political instability is annoying, but most funds are well diversified beyond mega-cap tech and our LPs don't have anywhere else to park capital. There is some opportunistic geopolitical hedging, but it isn't enough to tip the scales.

            For example, in my specific segment of the industry (cybersecurity/DefenseTech), we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East, a couple attempted suicide bombings near our TLV office, and employees of our portfolio companies and in some cases our founders being deployed.

            > Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries

            We did back when I was in BigTech before I entered PE/VC a couple years ago, and it still matters at the companies that I'm a board member or advisor for.

            > And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen

            Partially. A lot of diversification was already done.

            > US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken

            In that hypothetical, where else do we go? In such a world, the EU+UK is likely to see a military confrontation with Russia in the 2028-30 timeframe, China is out of the picture, Japan/SK/Aus would be dragged into conflict, India is likely to see a military confrontation with Pakistan or China by 2035, and the Gulf would re-ignite.