China applies to put 200K satellites in space after calling Starlink crash risk(www.scmp.com)

31 pointsby nkurz6 hours ago4 comments

schiffern2 hours ago
https://archive.is/zPsmq
For the predictable reasons, the article overemphasizes "number of satellites" and under-emphasizes "height of satellites" and "inclination of satellites."
The CTC-1 constellation proposes to be at 510 km altitude and 97.4 degrees inclination[0], which is already a heavily-populated orbit[1] due to being in a Sun-synchronous orbit. Since the collision risk scales as the object density squared, this is an especially foolhardy decision from the perspective of space debris and space sustainability.
Remember that most of the satellite collisions occur in a "halo" around the North and South poles where the SSO orbits all pile up. Avoiding these orbital slots (and in fact, removing defunct objects from these valuable orbits) is the best thing we could do for Kessler syndrome. China is doing literally the exact opposite.
It also doesn't help that China just abandons their upper stages in orbit, rather than doing proper deorbit burns.[2] Since each Chinese rocket also can only launch a handful of satellites (vs almost 50 per SpaceX launch), the number of abandoned debris upper stages is truly massive, and again they're all being carelessly discarded in pretty much the worst possible orbit.
[0] https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?action=dlattach;...
[1] https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44021.0
[2] https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/everyone-but-china-has...
- beepbooptheory21 minutes ago
  Why choose to put them on a heavily populated orbit? Is it cheaper or something?
  - remarkEon3 minutes ago
    It’s possible this is less about comms or cost, and more about occupying an orbit with high utility. I think of it as just an extension of PRC’s “rape the oceans” policy.
  - notahacker5 minutes ago
    They're internet broadband satellites, they want low latency connectivity, as does SpaceX and everybody else launching them there. It does also cost more to reach higher orbits, and more to stay in much lower orbits for any length of time.
  - FloorEgg10 minutes ago
    It has the best balance of Internet latency vs cost to maintain orbit.
    Lower and atmosphere drag becomes a problem to maintain orbit.
    Higher adds communication latency.
bicepjai4 hours ago
Already it’s getting hard to avoid noticing satellite trains when stargazing with the naked eye. If mega-constellations really scale into the hundreds of thousands, it feels like we’re on track to permanently degrade the night sky, even in places without much light pollution.
With mega-constellation launches accelerating, the sci‑fi premise of imprisoning ourselves behind a debris field feels less fictional. This is essentially the collision-cascade risk described by Kessler Syndrome
Kurzgesagt has a good explainer. Hopefully we never trigger it.
https://youtu.be/yS1ibDImAYU?si=vbs-PY5VEA9xv_gS
- cedws6 minutes ago
  In summer I was lying on a beach in Thailand and used an app on my phone to look at things in the sky. Pretty much every moving glistening object I could see was a Starlink satellite. I know nothing about how their constellation works but I wonder why so many are needed. Surely you only need one or two in line of sight for it to work? I was seeing many more than that.
nkurz6 hours ago
I wasn't aware how far along some of these Chinese satellite networks were. There are several, and the number of satellites planned for them is astonishing. This article seems like a good intro to them, with comparisons to Starlink: https://archive.is/zPsmq
- kikkia5 hours ago
  Do take that article with a grain of salt as it is South China morning post. While in this article they do call out that recently the CCP was ridiculing Elon for taking up too much space, in space. So I can give them some credit on that.
  As for the state of these networks, G60/Qianfan had a plan of ~650 sattelites by the end of 2025, but currently sits at 108. They hope for ~1200 by the end of '27
  Just before the end of the year the GuoWang constellation hit 136 of their planned 13,000.
  For reference starlink has launched over 10k satellites to date with ~9,400 in active service.
  Im sure the constellations will grow, but they have been experiencing the pains of scaling, especially with 1 use rockets. SCMP loves to pump up these crazy plans and massive numbers as a national pride win, even when they are not feasible or still really far off.
  - jvanderbot4 hours ago
    For reference, we have two internet sat providers based in USA (starlink and kuiper), and both have more than 100-200 satellites that you state for Chinese providers.
    If you add in EU providers, depending in how you count then, there's at least 2 or 3 providers who have more than 100 LEO satellites active.
ur-whale25 minutes ago
In light of Iran's mullah regime internet shutdown being completely bypassed by starlink portable units being smuggled in with the help of the Iranian diaspora, I can most certainly understand why the thugs in Beijing would want to control the internet-in-the-sky.