All the strategies to maximize luck surface area do very little to advance as a median performer. While the activities themselves (working in public, contributing to open-source, self-hosting & blogging) may correlate to higher-performing individuals, it's not a sure causal link.

Two other strategies are providing guidance of failure, and increasing the perception of genius (mental math, early exposure to opportunities, and tutoring). These are outside the scope of the individual once they are in their career phase, though.

This is a cool explanation, great visualization.

One note — on mobile the sticky section feels a bit tall making reading experience a bit clunky — maybe just screenshots from the simulation would do the trick, rather than live states?

Either way, looks great — nice work! Curious if the data shows anything about successful strategies, or if this could be simulated as well (ie. join an early stage company, get an MBA, etc).