I find it notable that the administration has dismissed the idea of supporting Maria Machado on hte grounds taht she 'has no support' when the extent of her support is why led the Maduro government to ban her from running for election in 2024.
I suspect key actors in the Venezuelan administration and military also don't have much support for Maduro (the US must have had some reason to believe they could pull this operation off with extremely low risk of downed helicopters and surrounded special forces), but acting like they do avoids all sorts of awkward schisms whilst keeping oil flowing to the right people.
Article is paywalled so couldn't read it.
The Trump admin likely wants someone more loyal and willing to cooperate with what the oil companies want to do to develop the oil reserves including ignoring environmental issues (rubber stamp).
Maria may have her own ties to China/Russia and half of the justification for this action was to push them out of the country.
https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-12-22/oil-gold...
The administration wants to enrich its friends by stealing this nation’s resources
This is especially true now, in my opinion, since there is a small likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the near term with some estimates predicting a 10-35% likelihood by 2027-2028. Longer term, the likelihood increases, but that's just my opinion.
If this is the case, however, the US economy can survive the loss of ~$180B annual Taiwan trade ties, but with "severe" recession; GDP down ~7% in conflict scenario. It would be chaos in the US, so a stable region, is paramount for survival and economic growth.
With that being said, Venezuela's 303B barrel reserves could boost US energy security via increased production (potentially 2-3M bpd), lowering oil prices, but effects delayed years.
Basically, even if sanctions lifted and investment resumed immediately, significantly increasing Venezuela's oil production (to meaningfully impact global/US supply and prices) would take 3–10+ years due to:
-Infrastructure decay -Need for massive new investment -Technical/logistical rebuilding -Contract/legal negotiations
Short-term relief would be minimal.
In my view, it would take more than Venezuelan oil to be able to counter a protracted economic war with China over the loss of ~$180B annual Taiwan trade ties but stabilizing the region could help strengthen the West's position.
I would not bank much on this humble AIs opinion :)
During the Philadelphia MOVE movement, the cops bombed a block of houses.
I can keep picking examples like this. Would these examples mean that the American government is at risk of lynching by Americans? Would you say it should be given the atrocities America has done towards its own people?
On the other hand, especially if this was a White House directed operation, the planning could be so shortsighted that snatching Maduro amounts to the dog catching the car.
I can’t imagine that the Maduro regime is being organically supported when two elections have passed (Guaidó, Machado) without legitimate, election backed leadership.
Or why there’s a big swell to support Maduro even he and his predecessor Chavez have caused more harm than what the US could give.
*paraphrasing "something worse than what has happened to maduro"
I can guarantee that many countrys are rehearsing the "what we do if the US goes rouge" strategy and working on new contingency plans. going after maduro had a microscopic venier of legalism and precident, but to touch the current leader of Venezuela would be a declaration of war on the whole planet, which is in fact lining up behind Delcy Rodriguez in her role as Venezuelas sole legitimate leader.
Didn't you forget somebody? The people?
> I can guarantee that many countrys are rehearsing the "what we do if the US goes rouge" strategy and working on new contingency plans.
In that case, they're 70 years too late to start making those plans. If you don't have nuclear arms you simply have to mostly accept whatever the super powers do and decide.
> to touch the current leader of Venezuela would be a declaration of war on the whole planet, which is in fact lining up behind Delcy Rodriguez in her role as Venezuelas sole legitimate leader.
That sounds like something from a video game. Reality is different. If Trump whisked her away like Maduro, nothing more would come from it.
The hard part is getting a sufficient quantity of pure enough uranium-235 (or a few other materials, but that's the easiest one) to support a chain reaction. This is why there's been so little proliferation since the end of the cold war: it's not about the knowledge, it's about resources. Uranium mines and processing facilities aren't exactly subtle.
If Maduro was not (a legitimate) head of state, neither is Rodriguez.
If Rodriguez does what Trump orders her to do, which he says is the arrangement to avoid American troops on the ground, how is this a sovereign country at all?
The U.S. has become a parody of its own science fiction movies.
"Fear will keep the local systems in line. Fear of this battle station." —General Tarkin, Star Wars (the original movie)
What’s the solution though? The entire Republican Congress is silent or openly supporting everything Trump does. There is no check and balance to contain Trump. And at the end of four years, he and his family get to keep the billions they gained corruptly with no way to get it back.
What in the shitty capitalist-hellscape propaganda is this.
Mods, please ban this account
Every petty tyrant or so called leader in Africa, Middle east, Asia and who knows where else now know that going to another country, snatching the leader and kidnapping them can be done without much consequences at any time so long as they go in guns blazing.
The EU who usually likes to parade around by giving lessons of democracy to everyone is basically completely silent on the whole affair besides Spain who came out saying that they would not recognize whoever ends up taking Maduro's place as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
And to top it all off you have numerous people who believe that if you have a problem with what the US did then you must be some sort of closeted commie supporter.
I can't wait to see the mental gymnastics that these people will do if and when the PRC decides to do the same thing to the leaders of Taiwan in the future. Will they be so quick to agree that this isn't such a big deal? I think not.
It's actually worse than staying silent.
Von der Leyen has basically said "good job, now let's figure out the regime change". [0]
Kaja Kallas has parroted the made up drug trafficking lies. [1]
> besides Spain who came out saying that they would not recognize whoever ends up taking Maduro's place as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
Spain at the very least had the decency of co-signing the joint Latin American statement condemning the act. [2]
[0] https://xcancel.com/vonderleyen/status/2007440364135674172 [1] https://xcancel.com/kajakallas/status/2007902058876448897 [2] https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/04/spain-and-5-latin-americ...
This sort of thinking was always true in history and geopolitics, as consequences come from those who enforce them. These other countries could try but they might have their own leader snatched soon enough if that's the case.
> no casualties
40 people died
> Moreover these countries already hate US, so shouldn’t they logically hate the US actions as well?
It doesn't matter if they hate the US or not. That is not the point. The point is that it makes this sort of actions completely legitimate.
It sounds like you're assuming the goal is moral coherence. It isn't; Trump and MAGA have always been completely philosophically untethered. The goal here is demonstrating that Trump is exempt from the rules he enforces on others. The more obviously hypocritical it is, the clearer the message: "We're strong enough that we don't need to be consistent." It's posturing and dominance signaling, nothing more.
American exceptionalism, not a new concept
You can be 100% sure that the only thing they are thinking about is that it can happen to them, and this is what they will be thinking about during many nights ahead.
[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/26/nicolas-maduro...
Maduro sucks, yet stealing him then announcing to the world that your principal goal is to commercialize Venezuela’s natural resources is very stupid.
Will be hilarious if incompetent MAGA lawyers can’t fill out the paperwork properly or, I don’t know, someone raises a defense of selective and vindictive prosecution based on POTUS’s own statements both before and after the arrest, talking about seizing their oil.
It's perfectly normal for a party you dislike to do something you like and also perfectly normal for a party you like to do something you dislike.
Sanctions are meant to make the people poor in the hope that they will rise up and topple the regime of sanctioned country. No need for US military operations.
Reality - Roughly 2/3 - ~67% - of known hydrocarbon reserves are located in the North American continent. Venezuela is a modest ~17-18%.
If anyone should be invaded for world oil security - it's us.
It's so hard to talk about this from the perspective of a venezuelan.
Venezuela is under a dictatorshipt that has violated human rights massively, in Caracas (the capital) there's a prison know as El Helicoide, that's the headquarterts of the SEBIN (Servicio Bolivariano de Inteligencia), they are the secret police and the have arrested opposition members, reporters, human rights activists, and even family members of any of the three. and El Helicoide is a prison that is the equivalent of Guantanamo, but in Venezuela; it's the largest torture center in Latin America.
On July 28, 2024, presidential elections were held, which were extremely difficult to reach. Negotiations with the government were necessary to allow the opposition to participate. The opposition held primary elections to determine its candidate, and María Corina Machado (MCM) (the previous year's Nobel Peace Prize laureate) won with approximately 90% of the vote. There was also a high voter turnout that the government had not anticipated, so they disqualified her, she then proposed another candidate, but this person was also disqualified, and ultimately, they had to put forward Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) at the last minute, an stranger in Venezuelan politics, and she had to even convince him to participate in the elections because he was the last option they had.
During the campaign, the government placed every possible obstacle in their path to prevent them from campaigning, closing roads, arresting campaign workers, and issuing threats. On election day, there were several irregularities, and at midnight, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that Maduro had won. However, MCM claimed there had been fraud and, days later, presented evidence. She had conducted a large-scale operation to collect all the electoral records from every polling station in the country, managing to gather the vast majority, which showed that EGU had won with 67%. This sparked widespread protests and severe repression, including the arrest of many members of Vente Venezuela (MCM's party). She was forced into hiding, and EGU was forced to leave the country, but only after making a deal with the government while taking refuge in the Spanish embassy. His son-in-law was also arrested and remains missing to this day.
If you ask any Venezuelan, many agree with an US invasion. The vast majority are against the regime, just like me, although many aren't aware of how dangerous Trump is, or the things he's done in the US. To me, Trump isn't so different from Chávez: he insults those who disagree with him, he doesn't respect institutions, he installs his people in positions of power, and he only cares about loyalty. That's why I'm in a very complicated position, because on the one hand, I want this dictatorship to finally end; on the other hand, I don't like Trump. He's quite capable of trying to establish his own dictatorship in his country. He's not doing this just to liberate us; he's doing it because he has his own interests.
There are also many people who have spoken ill of MCM; many have said she didn't deserve the Nobel Prize and that she's just a puppet of Trump.
I couldn't disagree more with those statements..
Being in her position is very difficult, due to the alliances the government has made. A large part of the left worldwide has sided with the dictatorship or doesn't denounce its atrocities, and because of that, she has no choice but to ally herself with right-wing people, including Trump. I don't think she agrees with everything he does, and she's even asked him to treat Venezuelans better, but she can't anger him either, because he's the only ally who can help her with this. That's why she told him he should have received the Nobel Prize, to avoid further anger and to try to appease him.
I don't completely agree with her; I have a somewhat different ideology than hers, but even I can see how much effort she puts into everything she does and here in Venezuela she's greatly admired. I'm not one to admire people or have idols, I even criticize her a bit because she never makes it clear what the plan is for getting out of this situation and always says that freedom will come soon, something that gets very tiresome, but even so, I can understand her
It's also important to mention something else: the Venezuelan government has used various operations to manipulate public opinion, both inside and outside Venezuela, trying to portray itself as a legitimate government and claiming that everything the U.S. does is for the sake of oil. While this is partly true, it also attempts to tarnish the reputation of MCM and the opposition. It's possible that here, on Twitter, Bluesky, or many other sites, there are fake accounts trying to promote this narrative, so be careful what you read, because this government has committed atrocities; don't forget that.
Talking about all this is very difficult, because on the one hand this is a dictatorship that we want to free ourselves from, but on the other hand Trump is one of the worst things that has happened to the world and everything can go wrong.
Here's an addendum based on the information that I've since yesterday:
What Trump and Marco Rubio has said about the situation is worrying, because they make very obvious that their priority it's the oil and democracy seems more like an afterthought. There's a big possibility that they let Delcy Rodríguez (the vicepresident) to be in power and use if she's more obedient, that would mean that the chavismo would still rule the country, changing nothing in democracy regards.
They talk about that there's going to be a transition, so I don't want to think in the previous scenario, but the way they dismissed MCM enraged me, because Trump said that she doesn't have the support nor the respect, and perhaps he refers to within the FANB (Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana), but what Rubio said today dismisses the idea of she or EGU getting in the presidency in the short term, something that I can understand because we have to make a transition, but at the same time is extremely worrying how they're sidelining the opposition.
I have the hope that things will improve, but at the same I don't like a lot of things that USA is doing right now, and that without mentioning what Trump has said about Colombia's president, Mexico or Greenland.
Excuse me if my text seems strange, I originally wrote it in Spanish and translated it in Google Translate, although I know English, it was easier for me to do it this way.
There have been images of protests in the US against the government because of the attack and even some pictures of banners supporting Maduro, like ignoring the that he was a dictator.
I'm in a somewhat middle position, because I feel the same that we're being ignored (especially in left-wing spaces), but at the same time there are a lot of Venezuelans that don't understand all the problems of this, some even wish that Venezuela converts into another state of the US and for me that's unreasonable.
They dont give a damn about the Venezuelan people. They want the oil sold cheap and in $US and the minerals. Venezuelans will get nothing out of this. Nothing.
I would like to know more of the potential benefits of this op, as seen by the people of Venezuela. Is it possible that ordinary people will benefit?
You're right.
> The vast majority are against the regime, just like me, although many aren't aware of how dangerous Trump is, or the things he's done in the US. To me, Trump isn't so different from Chávez: he insults those who disagree with him, he doesn't respect institutions, he installs his people in positions of power, and he only cares about loyalty. That's why I'm in a very complicated position, because on the one hand, I want this dictatorship to finally end; on the other hand, I don't like Trump. He's quite capable of trying to establish his own dictatorship in his country. He's not doing this just to liberate us; he's doing it because he has his own interests.
> What Trump and Marco Rubio has said about the situation is worrying, because they make very obvious that their priority it's the oil and democracy seems more like an afterthought.