Everyone's Watching Stocks. The Real Bubble Is AI Debt(www.bloomberg.com)
49 pointsby zerosizedweaslea day ago5 comments
  • pjb88a day ago
    Any ideas of where to invest just now?

    Seems like there's lots of warnings about equity bubbles, bond/debt problems, economic issues that will affect inflation (UK/EU), and gold is mega high. Seems like everywhere you look it's doom?

    • krupana day ago
      Long term or short term investment? One time lump sum investment or investing a little each paycheck? What's your risk tolerance? The answers to those questions are needed to answer your overall question well
      • pjb8813 hours ago
        Long term. Like normally I do a mix of index funds wide diversification plus bonds 80/20, but even vanguard (despite always saying "get a plan and stick to it, tune out the noise") are all of a sudden saying they're under weighting growth stocks.. (Which I think is a bit strange that they don't acknowledge that it's different from their normal strategy)
    • nitwit005a day ago
      If everything seems too expensive, and you're confident enough the prices will go down, you should just hold cash and wait.
      • saulpw21 hours ago
        This is specious advice. Never hold 100% anything.

        Especially cash. Maybe/likely the US Fed will pump trillions of new dollars into the economy in random places and cause massive inflation.

        So let's say we hold 25% cash, or even 50% cash. We still have to allocate the other 50-75% somewhere. Where?

        • rchaud20 hours ago
          Allocate it to a bank account with deposit insurance and go long on "peace of mind". Losing 3-5% of purchasing power over 12 months' time is better than losing 15% or more in an overnight crash and have to wait for the government to intervene and prop values back up.
    • therobots927a day ago
      Spain. $EWP. Also pretty much any other developed nation stock index.

      It’s the new flight to safety after gold.

      • csto12a day ago
        Why Spain?
        • therobots927a day ago
          Who knows. But thats the country up the most last year.
          • sph20 hours ago
            Ah yes, the good old investment advice: if a stock has been going up, it’s time to buy.

            Good luck with that strategy.

            • therobots92720 hours ago
              Oh and what’s your strategy Mr. Buffet?
              • sph19 hours ago
                For one, Mr Buffet coined the aphorism “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful” and here you are suggesting the literal opposite.
                • therobots92718 hours ago
                  I don’t think one year of outperformance counts as greed. There’s a reason I didn’t recommend gold.
            • bdangubic18 hours ago
              I heard this about NVDA in 2020 and 2021 and 2022 and 2023 and 2024 and 2025 and now 2026… if the stock is going up it is 100% time to buy if you know what the F you are doing. if you don’t know what you are doing then you sell when the stock is going up :)
              • sph13 hours ago
                If you know what you are doing, you do not rely on external random and irrational signals like market price.

                Also, past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Hindsight is always 20/20.

                • bdangubic19 minutes ago
                  > you do not rely on external random and irrational signals like market price.

                  I don’t, but too many people do :)

    • hippo2216 hours ago
      During the dotcom bubble, Alan Greenspan recognized that irrational exuberance was driving the market to unsupported valuations. He said this in 1996. The bubble wouldn’t pop for many years. In fact, the deepest nasdaq market correction was still above the nasdaq value when he initially made his comment. The point is, time in the market > timing the market (at least for most people).
    • cornhole18 hours ago
      the one Japan blog post recommended the Nikkei 225 while the yen is still dogshit
    • marbroa day ago
      [dead]
  • tabs_or_spacesa day ago
    interesting that no mention of nvidia in there?

    also really surprised that tech companies have more debt than cash on hand. would be really interesting to know how apple fares in this comparison too.

    • zerosizedweaslea day ago
      Not really surprising that the debt is greater than cash on hand. The buildout has gotten really extreme at this point. Basically eating everything in economy from credit to RAM.
  • zerosizedweaslea day ago
    As A.I. Companies Borrow Billions, Debt Investors Grow Wary https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/business/ai-debt-investor...
  • dinofpa day ago
    Can't get past the paywall but who the F already didn't know this for over a year? Go read Ed Zitron, Bloomberg, you're drunk.
    • lovicha day ago
      I’ve read Mr. Zitrons articles and recently exited a 10 year old position I held with Nvidia due to his analysis, but this part of the article was news to me

      > The investment requirements are so large that equity financing alone won’t do. The balance sheets of many of the major players have been altered significantly. Looking at Meta’s annual statement before ChatGPT was released to the public in November 2022, it had over three times as much cash as debt on its balance sheet. Last quarter it had 15% more debt. Microsoft had 30% more cash than debt pre-ChatGPT. Now it has almost 20% more debt. Amazon, which has traditionally had a more leveraged balance sheet, now has over 50% more debt than cash

      I was still under the impression that all the faangs had more cash than liabilities, I wasn’t aware that had flipped

      • VirusNewbiea day ago
        Why hold cash when you're a money printing machine about to go into an inflationary period?
        • therobots92720 hours ago
          Even if you’re correct about entering an inflationary period that doesn’t mean money is better in chips than cash. Chips can depreciate faster than cash even in an “inflationary environment”. They’d be better off buying back shares.
    • zerosizedweaslea day ago
      Paywall removed: https://archive.is/mwmia