Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall(www.theguardian.com)
21 pointsby rene_d4 hours ago9 comments
  • thelastgallon4 hours ago
    What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?
    • JumpCrisscross2 hours ago
      > What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality?

      In all likelihood? xAI buys Tesla. That’s the functional floor.

      > Would it take down the entire stock market with it

      No.

      • 0cf8612b2e1ean hour ago
        AI exuberance is ridiculous, but even xAI could not pony up enough real money to payout Tesla investors for anything but pennies on the dollar.
      • ckastner2 hours ago
        How low could that floor be, in dollar terms?

        The financial engineering with the Twitter/X takeover was already pretty bold, but Tesla would probably still be a chunk an order of magnitude larger than that.

    • neogodless4 hours ago
      I'm not sure how much of "the stock market" TSLA makes up, but at current valuation, it makes up 1.9% of VTI (so that's a good estimation). So it could blink out of existence and only take VTI down 2%. (2% is significant of course.) But more likely might be a slow erosion while other components grow, making index funds and "the entire stock market" quite resilient to such a shock.
    • bdangubic3 hours ago
      you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :)

      people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

      • disqard3 hours ago
        ...you forgot "terraforming Mars" :)
      • sixQuarks3 hours ago
        Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late
        • JumpCrisscross2 hours ago
          > Tesla has basically solved it

          Waymo has solved it. Tesla and BYD probably will solve it. And then everyone else will solve it for the same reason everyone likes having car factories: jobs and tanks.

          I say this as someone who was in a Waymo and used Tesla’s latest FSD less than a month ago. One of them still fails spectacularly ungracefully. In the other I can take a nap.

          • bdangubic2 hours ago
            The question I ask every person pitching FSD is whether they would let the FSD take their kid to soccer/bball… practice - still waiting for first yes answer
        • bdangubic3 hours ago
          > Tesla has basically solved it

          What exactly has Tesla solved, automation-wise? Not sure what you are specifically referring to? I am being everything except ignorant, I look at things with my own eyes and do not fall for car-salesman tricks. Perhaps I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially but after decade+ of overpromising and underdelivering (underdelivering might be the understatement of the century) forgive me if I do not believe what a car salesman is pitching. I do not hate Elon at all, actually think he's one of the greatest visionaries of our time and probably the greatest salesman in the history of mankind.

  • neogodless4 hours ago
    Previous:

    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46433480 A Second Year of Decline for Tesla's EVs (electrek.co) 1 day ago (2 comments)

    Original headline: Tesla (TSLA) does something unusual ahead of Q4 delivery results

    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46436205 Tesla Compiles Downbeat Average Estimates for Its Vehicle Sales (bloomberg.com) ~1 day ago

  • vijay_erramilli4 hours ago
    stock will reach an all time high based on this news..
    • RaftPeople4 hours ago
      If they can just get down to 0 sales then costs will drop significantly, that should really boost the stock price.
    • triceratops3 hours ago
      TSLA going pre-revenue.
      • ahartmetz3 hours ago
        Maybe they will even invent post-revenue economics. Or, with the benefit of the doubt, between-revenues economics.
  • funnymunny2 hours ago
    > … in a new “consensus” section on its investor website …

    Why would they willingly start publishing numbers that are worse than 3rd party consensus, out of nowhere?

    • Neywiny2 hours ago
      Maybe they're starting to realize that the first step to fixing a problem is admitting you have one? Feels safer to say "look we didn't do well and we're going to not do well for a bit, but we'll get back on our feet" because it could encourage a buying of the dip.
  • languagehacker4 hours ago
    The Tesla board should just put a bumper sticker on Musk that said "I bought this before Elon went crazy". Like, how did you not know.
  • expedition322 hours ago
    I saw 3 Chinese EVs in my mom's apartment complex parking garage. The rest were European. No Tesla's.
  • jqpabc1234 hours ago
    What Musk really excels at selling --- hype.
  • paulpauper4 hours ago
    tesla stock: positive lol
  • everfrustrated4 hours ago
    I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income.

    Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.

    • jqpabc1234 hours ago
      I don't think you quite realize that Cybercab is a long, long way from scaling into a profitable business.

      Safety and remote drivers are a huge barrier to achieving this. As is legal liability for accidents. Uber sidesteps this issue completely since it is the driver's responsibility.

      Word is that Robotaxi is crashing at a higher rate than human drivers in Austin --- even with safety drivers.

      https://www.technology.org/2025/11/03/teslas-robotaxi-fleet-...

      • sixQuarks3 hours ago
        I don’t think you realize that Tesla has basically solved autonomy. you are obviously not using the latest Tesla version of FSD
    • neogodless4 hours ago
      Based on Tesla's stock price and P/E ratio, it would seem most people do believe what you're suggesting, right?

      But I am curious what the end-to-end math looks like for all costs incurred in Cybercab rideshare services, maintenance, insurance, repairs, and so forth, and how that calculates out per mile. And of course the volume of rideshares, given the tepid pace most Tesla announcements come to fruition and scale.

      The Model 3 / Y scaled better than many predicted, but since then, other promises have gone the other way.

    • tartuffe784 hours ago
      And everything they've announced has come to pass before...
    • bdangubic3 hours ago
      so we should expect to see it by 2065?