66 pointsby febed8 hours ago18 comments
  • Yizahi2 hours ago
    > including more than 30,000 women and children according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry – figures the UN considers reliable.

    Lol, yeah. Thank god we have such paragons of honest reporting as Iran-Qatar coalition of losers and their band of mercs and terrorists. Where would we get reliable info if not for them.

    What next? Maria Zakharova nominated for Pulitzer?

    • tim3332 hours ago
      The UN is generally ok?
  • tim3338 minutes ago
    >...World War Three ... more likely to be a collection of diplomatic and military manoeuvres, which will see autocracy flourish

    I think we may be getting wise to that though. I'm sure Trump would be like to be ruler for life but the US voters seem to be getting fed up. Also probably Putin would like the Russian world to extend to Berlin but the costs of the war, sanctions and recently Ukraine hitting his shadow fleet are causing Russia to run out of money.

  • mvkel7 hours ago
    What feels "different" today is not necessarily risk, but visibility.

    We now see every war, cyber incident, threat, and speech in real time. I have to imagine the Cuban Missile Crisis (for example) was a much more serious existential risk, we were just largely in the dark while it was happening.

    Not to minimize the current crises, I just wonder if this isn't what has always happened, we're just more informed now.

    • repeekad7 hours ago
      What you’re saying applied as far back as Vietnam, mainstream television allowed us to watch the war on video in mostly realtime, and we saw widespread protest

      I don’t think access or visibility of the information is what’s changed, but how that information is being delivered today vs back then

      “The medium is the message”

    • graeme7 hours ago
      People were extremely aware of the Cuban Missile Crisis. My father mentioned at school they were doing active under desk drills in the event it escalated to nuclear war.

      It is easy to underrate the past. The 20th century had mass communication, high literacy and an active and well funded press corps with committed newspaper readers and news watchers.

  • epistasis7 hours ago
    > There is Ukraine of course, where the UN says 14,000 civilians have died.

    Point of order, the UN says they have documented that number, and certainly dont count it as anything representing the actual death toll for civilians. The count doesn't cover most of the areas where civilians are dying at high rates. Sure, the UN stayed in Gaza to see what happened and delivered, but occupied Russian territory is too dangerous for the UN and they don't even try to monitor the death and atrocities happening in the occupied areas.

    • lawn7 hours ago
      Yeah, 14,000 is very low. In Mariupol alone more civilians are estimated to have died but it's impossible to get an exact count.
      • empiko6 hours ago
        Do we have a better estimate? I don't think it's particularly difficult to get information from the occupied territories, the people there seem to freely use Internet.

        It's my understanding that this war is really not particularly bloody for civilians as it is moving so slow that Russians are taking month to conquer pretty small towns and cities and the civilians can usually evacuate or hide. The bombing campaign has some civilian casualties, but I mostly see headlines mentioning <5 dead overall per occasional huge wave of drones and missiles.

        • lawn5 hours ago
          Yes we have better estimates. In Mariupul for example estimates are above 20k civilians dead and murdered.

          UN cannot personally verify any of this though so it counts them as zero. It should be at least the double of their estimate.

          > It's my understanding that this war is really not particularly bloody for civilians as it is moving so slow that Russians are taking month to conquer pretty small towns and cities and the civilians can usually evacuate or hide.

          Russia's advance has slowed to a crawl yes but the amount of people murdered in the places where Russia does take control are still very high (see Mariupul as an example). Especially in the early days of war they took a lot of land.

          > The bombing campaign has some civilian casualties, but I mostly see headlines mentioning <5 dead overall per occasional huge wave of drones and missiles.

          5 per day is too low as that would only add up to around 5.5k civilians and per UN's own calculations that's too low.

          They've been targeting civilians, including schools and hospitals, daily since the war started.

          • spwa44 hours ago
            > UN cannot personally verify any of this though so it counts them as zero. It should be at least the double of their estimate.

            UN has not verified any of the 70k death toll in Gaza either. Those numbers come from hamas. Why is it a problem in Ukraine?

            • lawn3 hours ago
              You'd have to ask the UN. Fact is they aren't counting deaths in Russian occupied land, take that as you will.
            • Yizahi2 hours ago
              It's almost like both numbers are heavily biased in the UN. Almost. Surely such bias and possible corruption couldn't happen in the esteemed institution, known for its impartial and objective rulemaking. Right?
  • neilv7 hours ago
    > His henchmen make bloodcurdling threats about wiping the UK and other European countries off the map with Russia's vaunted new weapons, but he's usually much more restrained himself.

    Is it a good personal shield, for him to have the next of succession look even more undesirable to his adversaries?

    • number66 hours ago
      Also he will looke reasonable by just invading Ukraine instead of the whole of Europe
  • iampotatoman927 hours ago
    This article makes me think of The Great Filter. If the threats are indeed real, and humans are unable to use their bigger brains to bypass tribal instincts, then maybe we are doomed.
  • mkaoa56 hours ago
    "If you want peace, prepare for war" (Latin: Si vis pacem, para bellum).

    Whether current preparations lead to peace or lead to war, is left as an exercise to the reader.

  • OGEnthusiast7 hours ago
    It still seems wild to me that almost 5 years into this war, Europe is still relying on America to help them with Ukraine. Should be pretty obvious by now that Americans have no real interest in this war one way or the other.
    • epistasis7 hours ago
      The US stopped all aid this year, except for intelligence sharing.

      It's wild that people in the US think this war is not their war. They promised to defend Ukraine's territory decades ago, and barely followed through for three years, then as soon as Trump took office they completely broke their promise.

      By breaking their promise, the US is encouraging nuclear proliferation throughout the world. It's extremely shortsighted and stupid to not be providing the miniscule amount of current military budget that could stop this war permanently. The US and Europe have been too timid and stupid from the start, causing massive bloodshed. But Europe is getting smarter and stronger as the US gets stupider and weaker.

      • Youden2 hours ago
        Inspired by the other (somewhat aggressive) replies, I looked into what the US promised exactly and unfortunately, it looks like there was never a promise to defend Ukraine.

        The relevant document is the Budapest Memorandum [0]. Ukraine, Russia, the UK and the USA are signatories and essentially each agree to respect Ukraine's borders and sovereignty and not to engage in certain hostile acts.

        However the only obligation in the event of a breach is that if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine, or Ukraine is threatened by them, the signatories must seek immediate action from the UN Security Council.

        I hate to say it but it looks like the US and UK are adhering to the agreement as-written. The problem as I see it is that Ukraine accepted the agreement without stronger security guarantees.

        [0]: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine_Memorandum_on_Securit...

        • tim3332 hours ago
          Maybe, but Bill Clinton recently:

          >“We forced Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons, cruise missiles, and strategic bombers. We promised to protect Ukraine from Russia. We made Ukraine vulnerable. So yes, this is our war.”

          He was the one who did the deal.

      • TMWNN6 hours ago
        >They promised to defend Ukraine's territory decades ago

        The US (and UK) have 100% lived up to their commitments in the Budapest Memorandum on Ukraine's behalf.

        You know this, and you know that others know this, yet you repeat this lie anyway.

        • epistasis6 hours ago
          What a weird and unsupported accusation. Claims without evidence do not require evidence to rebut.

          The US is threatening Ukrainian territory, claiming "it's already been lost." The US is not respecting the sovereignty of the borders of Ukraine.

          And that's not even getting into the US breaking its promise to respond strongly to Russia should Russia ever violate the memorandum during the Obama administration.

          I do not know what you consider the lie, but I do know that the US has completely tarnished its reputation over the course of many presidential administrations and has put its own interest in the world at risk due to its weakness.

      • wakawaka284 hours ago
        >It's wild that people in the US think this war is not their war. They promised to defend Ukraine's territory decades ago, and barely followed through for three years, then as soon as Trump took office they completely broke their promise.

        We did defend Ukraine to the best of our ability, given that we will not risk an apocalypse or bankruptcy over it. There is a limit to everything. Don't be naive.

        >By breaking their promise, the US is encouraging nuclear proliferation throughout the world.

        Would you rather have a nuclear war now, instead of mere proliferation?

        >But Europe is getting smarter and stronger as the US gets stupider and weaker.

        If Europe was smart, they would back a peace plan asap. They are not prepared to win a war with Russia, especially if China sides with Russia.

        • tim333an hour ago
          >We did defend Ukraine to the best of our ability

          The US under Biden defended them in a very wishy washy way. He could have said do not invade or we'll send jets to stop the invading troops. But he actually said something like if it's only a small invasion the US is unlikely to get involved, and refused to allow other people's F16s to be used until a couple of years in.

          If he'd just said we are not fighting but we'll send the NATO surplus stuff over 20 years old to Ukraine freely at the start that likely would have been enough. But no. "Escalation management" - Ukraine not allowed to win incase it upsets the invaders.

        • spacedcowboy3 hours ago
          This might have more credibility as a post if the current "president" of the USA wasn't very obviously (a) compromised by Russia, (b) mentally incompetent, or (c) a fascist whose only interest was personal gain.
  • lawn5 hours ago
    Flagged by Russian sympathizers. Hardly a surprise.
    • tim333an hour ago
      Probably people who just don't want politics here.
      • lawnan hour ago
        Likely the same people who only flag the "wrong" politics.
  • beepbooptheory7 hours ago
    Russia has spent four years in this, fighting a country a fraction of its size, getting set back by homemade drones, and will now seemingly only win by a slow, expensive attrition and get only a concession. Why is anybody supposed to be scared of them?
    • epistasis7 hours ago
      If they conquer Ukraine, they then have Ukraine's resources, technical capabilities, and a fresh group of young people to conscript into service.

      We shouldn't be scared of Russia, per se, they would be easy to defeat if we bothered to try rather than if we tried to drag out this war as long as possible to try to weaken Russia. But if we let Russia win, they will rebuild far stronger and take over the next country, and grow stronger. And again, and again.

      • Alex20376 hours ago
        >Ukraine's resources

        one of the most absurd things about this war is that Russia doesn't need any Ukrainian resources.

        >technical capabilities

        the only technical capability that Ukraine has and Russia hasn't is America's multi-trillion dollar intelligence apparatus' support.

        >a fresh group of young people to conscript

        an overwhelming majority of them would flee, and Europe would eagerly welcome them.

    • ycombinete7 hours ago
      Firstly why wouldn't one be scared of an opponent that can just steadily press against me, winning a war by attrition?

      Secondly, this is a naive mischaracterization of Ukraine, Russia, and the war itself.

      Ukraine is a serious modern military power. One that very few countries could successfully invade. One with major support from other countries. Stormshadows, HIMARS, Javelins, NLAWs, Patriot systems are not home made drones.

      That said, if Russia had managed to establish air superiority over Ukraine it would have probably won the war as fast as they intended to. But they didn't, and couldn't, because Ukraine isn't a guerilla outfit with home-made drones. They spent more than a decade preparing for this conflict.

      It is also Ukraine, with defenders advantage, defending against a % of the Russian offense with their entire defensive capacity. Nearly 30% of Ukraine's GDP goes to defense currently. Russia's is somewhere closer to 7%.

      Russia would probably like to do what they did to Chechnya when they got rolled out of there. Just sit back and shell the place. But because Ukraine's drones and long range artillery are a match or better than the Russians, they have to find other means.

    • graeme7 hours ago
      The only two armies skilled at modern drone warfare are Russia and Ukraine. An army without drone experience could get ripped to shreds facing either one.

      Contrary to typical narratives my understanding is that the Russians are somewhat ahead on drones. They pioneered fibre optic drones and have more ability to mass produce them with Chinese support.

      Ukraine has fought incredibly well and my hope is at some point Russia can't sustain its offensives due to domestic issues. Russia is very definitely straining.

      But they shouldn't be underrated. In Ukraine they face a battled tested, fortified frontline and a society mobilized for war. Russia in turn has set itself for ongoing war. Europe is still in peacetime mode.

      • Alex20376 hours ago
        >An army without drone experience could get ripped to shreds facing either one.

        there would be no trench warfare in a NATO-Russia war. we already saw what happens when Soviet/Russian tech meets F35 and B2 - Israel and US bombed the shit out of Iran with impunity, suffering no losses whatsoever.

    • jemmyw3 hours ago
      Their attrition might be slow, but it's not that expensive. What is expensive are the aircraft/ships/missiles that Europe has too few of that they hope to stop a Russian invasion with if it came to it.
    • hvb27 hours ago
      Because they're willing to do it for that outcome?

      They did pick a non NATO country though, that's still a difference. Most of the other countries in eastern Europe are part of NATO.

    • tim333an hour ago
      They've still got the world's largest nuclear stockpile and a slightly psychopathic leader who seems indifferent to killing people.
    • usrnm7 hours ago
      Sounds a lot like Vietnam and the US didn't even win that one
    • SanjayMehta5 hours ago
      Westerners measure success in terms of land, Russians measure success in terms of destruction of the enemy, the land will be acquired in due course.

      Orlando Figes books are worth reading.

    • lawn5 hours ago
      > Why is anybody supposed to be scared of them?

      Don't underestimate them just because they couldn't defeat Ukraine.

      They have no regard for the lives of their own soldiers and will send wave after wave of meat towards the front, which is very hard to defend against. This is backed up by an incredible knowledge of drone warfare and most countries in the world would be unable to defend against them.

    • seventytwo7 hours ago
      Remember that Russia is never as strong or as weak as they appear, and if they ally closely with China while Europe and the US is divided, it may mot be a good time for us in the West.
    • mvdtnz7 hours ago
      This is western wishcasting. It doesn't reflect the truth on the ground.
  • elbci3 hours ago
    Uh, oh this must be the end of times lamented every crumbling empire ever, the western one now included
  • moralestapia7 hours ago
    Poor guy must have been in a coma during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
    • AndrewStephens7 hours ago
      He wasn’t in a coma, he was only 18 years old. He states up front that he has only been reporting for 40 years, so he started long after the CMC.
  • DustinEchoes8 hours ago
    Welcome to the end of Pax Americana.
    • silisili7 hours ago
      This all just feels like typical sabre rattling to me. Except this time, the US is also rattling it at basically everyone, and Russia may take that as a good sign.

      Make no mistake, Russia does not have the ability to fight a world war with Europe, so would requires allies. Basically, China. And that would be enough to set the US off.

      Trump talks a lot, too much, trying to use bullying and threats to effect changes he wants to see. But at any hint of war with Europe, we'd be right there with them.

      I don't worry about any of this now personally, because Putin is more calculating than that. And even if he's gone completely bonkers, Jinping is way too careful to be openly associated with them at this point.

      • hnlmorg7 hours ago
        I think what makes this feel different isn’t the sabre rattling, which i agree has always happened. But just how many large economic powers are at it concurrently.

        America is using rhetoric that threatens a civil war right now.

        Israel is attacking all of their neighbours.

        Europe is shifting to the most nationalist versions of parliaments we’ve seen since the Second World War.

        And we are see massive global economic decline, civil unrest, and a general atmosphere that things need to change. Unfortunately that often becomes a precursor for war because war is, initially at least, good for business.

        As someone who’s middle aged and always watched the news closely until very recently, I’ve found I’ve had to stop eating precisely because the current climate feels the closest to another world war that we’ve seen since the previous one.

        The Golf War was scary because of its risk of escalation, as was the cold war. But what we are seeing presently is actual escalation and by more countries. And seemingly with a population that’s not entirely against the domestic policies that lead to such escalation.

        • soldthat3 hours ago
          > Israel is attacking all of their neighbours.

          That’s a bit of an exaggeration. Israel has not attacked Egypt or Jordan.

          It has attacked Lebanon after the north of Israel had been evacuated for many months due to relentless rocket attacks from Lebanon.

          The only preemptive attack on a neighbour was Syria, after the fall of the Assad regime.

          • hnlmorgan hour ago
            They’re also attacking Iran too. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdj9vj8glg2o

            I don’t really care who started what. That’s just silly playground politics best left for historians who specialise in Middle Eastern foreign politics. My point is they’re at the “let’s show them our military force” phase of their foreign policies.

      • yyx7 hours ago
        Ukraine is Europe. And what does US do? Threatens Ukraine into giving away land.

        "Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed"

        • silisili7 hours ago
          Geographically, so is Russia.

          Perhaps I should have said the EU, of which Ukraine is not a member.

          • SanjayMehta4 hours ago
            There's more of Russia in Asia, geographically.

            And Europe isn't even a real continent, it's more like West Asia, a peninsula. Only politically it's a "continent."

      • CamperBob27 hours ago
        But at any hint of war with Europe, we'd be right there with them.

        There is no reason in the world to think that's true.

        People forget how close the Trump family's historical ties to Russia run. "We get all the funding we need out of Russia" should have disqualified any presidential candidate, but...

        • hnlmorg7 hours ago
          Trump has some kind of magic aura that allows him to say the most ridiculous stuff that would be career ending for any other politician, and somehow have it received by the public as endearing.

          It truly is a bizarre time in politics.

    • justkys7 hours ago
      [flagged]
  • mvdtnz7 hours ago
    The correct time to stop Putin's war of aggression was the day he sent troops over the border. He should have been met with ferocious force from the entire western world. But he observed the weakness in the West for decades and knew he could get away with it. Obama's failed "red line" was the end of any nation on earth taking the western world seriously. The end of western liberalism is nigh.
    • wakawaka284 hours ago
      What do you wanna do, nuke them? Seriously you Ukraine-heads are bloodthirsty armchair tough guys. The West has sent hundreds of billions of dollars worth of aid to Ukraine and reached the bottom of the barrel in weapons and made zero progress pushing the Russians back. There are hardly any Ukrainian men left. They wait to be killed by drones in the most gruesome fashion.

      Have you considered that maybe a regional dispute among neighboring ex-Soviets does not call for involving the whole world in a bloodbath? Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians would be alive now if not for this dispute. The West can't afford a war with Russia over Ukraine. We have lots of problems of our own. This shit is bloody, expensive, and embarrassing.

      • jemmyw3 hours ago
        > Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians would be alive now if not for this dispute

        I mean, we (the west) could have saved ourselves a lot of money by putting it to Russia that if they crossed the border then we'd defend the airspace. Essentially, being half assed about it is going to cost more money and lives. The Ukrainians were going to defend themselves whatever we did.

        I don't think Europe has a choice but to be involved.

        > We have lots of problems of our own

        I don't really understand that. You don't get to turn away from new problems and global problems because you have some economic issues of your own. Indeed, it's all the more likely to be why you get dragged in.

        > The West has sent hundreds of billions of dollars worth of aid to Ukraine

        We can afford it. The US is probably well ahead due to the sale of new weapons as well.

      • thrance4 hours ago
        Clever reframing putting all the blame on Ukraine and the western world. You conveniently "forgot" to mention that Russia is the sole aggressor in this story. And no, Ukraine would have fallen a while ago already if not for western aid, so it wasn't at all for nothing. And then it would have been Poland's turn.
  • tehjoker7 hours ago
    [flagged]
    • seventytwo7 hours ago
      And I’m guessing you’ve covered 40 wars and have been reporting on those locations since at least the 1980s?

      Sit down.

  • medv6 hours ago
    [flagged]
  • fithisux7 hours ago
    He "forgets"

    1. The war on privacy 2. The war on rights 3. The class war 4. The silencing of opposition

    Not a good article.

    • Daviey7 hours ago
      I think you've confused issues in society with kinetic war.

      One mainly, although not always, harms individual wellbeing, whilst the other causes mass death and lines on the map to change.

      Hopefully you can work out which is which.

    • chomp7 hours ago
      These are wars in the colloquial sense, not wars between countries, come on
  • zkmon7 hours ago
    News reporters sometimes consume their own sensationalist content, which was strictly meant for customers only. This actually causes wars at larger scale, which would have been small local conflicts, if starved of visibility they never deserved.

    A lot of people won't bother arguing or fighting if there are no observers.

    For rural populations in those countries l, it hardly matters who is the ruler at the capital. The response of the West is largely influenced by media, disguised as public opinion, of the Wesst, but not opinion of the populations of the subject countries.

    • hnlmorg7 hours ago
      I’m pretty sure it matters to rural villages in Ukraine which has been devastated by Russian bombs.

      And to rural communities in China that have been decimated because they don’t follow the official Chinese religion.

      Or in Gaza where in May 2025 it was reported that 95% of agricultural land was now unusable.

      And living in rural Britain, I’m also noticing the financial burden that global tensions are costing us.

      • zkmon3 hours ago
        Global tensions can cause financial burden on rural Britain, because rural Britain is connected to global supply chains. Disconnect those, your tensions are gone. Produce local, consume local, watch local news, celebrate local culture. What's global tension?
        • hnlmorgan hour ago
          It’s impossible to be entirely disconnected.

          You’d have to produce your own electricity and water, have no reliance on gas, not require a car nor public transport, not use a mobile phone nor internet, own your own land and have no reliance on banking, and have no reliance on selling any of your produce to anyone who might have those extraordinarily common dependencies.

          These kinds of unicorns are going to be so ridiculously rare that you can safely ignore them as a statistical outlier. What’s more, at some point you can guarantee they’re going to come into a situation when thy do eventually depend upon the wider network, eg if they fall ill, break a leg, a family member requires support, their home requires repairs, or they need to buy tools that can’t be built themselves.

          • zkmon15 minutes ago
            All these needs can be met by your local economy, county level or state level. The real issue is your dependency on global exports and imports. People lived for centuries without global stuff.
            • hnlmorg5 minutes ago
              But your local economy is dependent on the county economy that’s dependent on the country’s economy. It’s all connected. Yeah local wealth will vary from region to region, but it’s ridiculous to say that local economies operate entirely independently from the national economy.

              > People lived for centuries without global stuff.

              People also lived for centuries without antibiotics but that doesn’t mean that present civilisation doesn’t depend on it.

              We aren’t still living in Saxon Britain. ;)