10 pointsby hn_acker3 months ago6 comments
  • bediger40003 months ago
    Is there any evidence (beyond anecdotal, like Steven Seagal and Gérard Depardieu) for Rich People Leaving? I'm absolutely certain you can find one or two Rich People leaving jurisdictions after tax increases, but do enough people leave to make a statistical difference?
    • hollerith3 months ago
      Not a direct answer to your question, but I think tax rates in Britain in the 1960s and 1970s were very high, then when the rates were lowered, tax revenue actually went up. The term "Laffer curve" was used a lot in public discussion of this topic in the 1970s and 1980s.
      • bediger40003 months ago
        Tax revenue hasn't gone up in the US despite many rounds of lowering taxes since the 1980s. Clearly, the US is on the part of the Laffer curve with a positive slope.

        Laffer curve revenue increases have to derive from an increase in the marginal benefit of working. I can't see a mechanism for rich people to increase tax revenue if the rates drop.

        • hollerith3 months ago
          The mechanism is that when the rate drops, people spend less time dodging taxes and more time earning taxable income.
          • bediger40003 months ago
            Exactly. That doesn't apply to wealthy people, whose income is almost entirely from investments.
            • hollerith3 months ago
              I disagree. What would resolve our disagreement is data on tax revenue before and after the lowering of the rates in the 1970s (or whenever it happened) broken down by the type of personal income (salary versus investment income).
              • bediger40002 months ago
                Thank you for the civil disagreement. While I remain unconvinced that rich people, whose income is almost entirely investment returns and other kinds of working the financial system, would decide to "cheat less" on taxes if the tax rate goes done, I appreciate that you propose a fact-based method of deciding how to resolve the disagreement. Bravo!
  • TowerTall3 months ago
    Then let them leave. If they don't want to contribute whats the point of having them around in the first place?
  • f30e3dfed1c93 months ago
    Is that a promise? I can think of at least a few I'd love to see the last of.
  • y0eswddl3 months ago
    Rich people don't leave over taxes... it's not really anything but an idle threat:

    https://inequality.org/article/millionaires-dont-flee-states...

    • seanmcdirmid3 months ago
      Really rich people do if there is a very lopsided tax directed at them personally, like Bezos going to Florida. Switzerland cantons are filled with the very rich who negotiate tax deals with cantons directly. If you edge taxes up overtime or create a broad tax, it isn’t a problem. If you create a wealth tax with a huge deductible specifically targeted at billionaires, they are going to get around that one way or the other.

      That article you linked is really bait and switch. No, they won’t leave if you raise taxes, yes, they will leave if you raise taxes just on them (and yes, a $500k deductible on capital gains isn’t going to bother anyone who isn’t a billionaire like Bezos). Also, a wealth tax simply isn’t going to happen at the state level because it would require a liquidation of assets to implement.

      • y0eswddl2 months ago
        show me examples where taxes were raised in the rich and enough moved away from the area to cause problems...
        • seanmcdirmid2 months ago
          European Wealth Tax Repeals

          Eight of the twelve European countries with a wealth tax in 1990 had abandoned them by 2019. The primary reasons for repeal included:

          Insufficient revenue generation: The taxes often raised little revenue, partly because the wealthy found ways to avoid them and partly due to capital flight. High administrative costs: The process of valuing assets for the tax was complex and costly.

          Outflow of capital and individuals: This was a major factor, with prominent business people moving abroad, taking their businesses and investments with them.

          Sweden

          The country repealed its wealth tax in 2007 because it was clearly driving business people and their capital out of the country. A notable example is Ingvar Kamprad, the founder of IKEA, who moved to Switzerland partly due to the tax climate.

          France

          The French wealth tax was a factor in the exodus of an estimated 42,000 millionaires between 2000 and 2012, which led to the tax's eventual repeal in 2017. The loss of this tax base meant the revenues generated were consistently disappointing.

          Norway

          A recent, modest increase (1%) in Norway's wealth tax led to a record number of super-rich individuals leaving the country in 2022 and 2023. Research associated with the event found that when an entrepreneur subject to the wealth tax out-migrates, there are significant local negative effects on their businesses, including drops in employment (33%) and investment (21%), suggesting a broader negative impact beyond just the lost tax receipt of the individual.

  • FrankWilhoit3 months ago
    ...and if they are allowed to avoid taxes, the system loses its credibility. I think we have seen which is worse.
  • hn_acker3 months ago
    This video discusses circumstances under which increasing taxes on millionaires+ wouldn't necessarily reduce some counties' tax revenues (and in some cases would increase them). Keep in mind that it does not suggest how to find optimal or fair tax rates.