All the while management is breathing down your neck and asking 'why isn't it ready yet'.
Once the thing is shipped, then all the important people come out of the woodwork, who were surely there all along, 'supporting' you from behind the scenes, there are photo ops and important people shaking hands. If they feel particularly charitable, then you might get a seat at the table. There's talk of spinning up a team around the product, and people fall over each other to get to lead it.
But the thing is, most likely they don't need your expertise any more, not really, once everything works, you don't really have a negotiating position as a dev. They get some cheap juniors to fix the bugs and add the missing feature niggles - hiring 3 juniors might not even be cheaper, the point is management does not have to depend on you, they can play their human resource games.
'But only I can fix that complex race condition, that popped up half a year after development' - well if it was good enough with the bug for people not to notice it for half a year, it's going to be good enough for another half, until the new devs can fix it.
This applies to ambitious feature requests as well - if the code's good enough that the contract was signed, the business requirement was met, they can just kick the can down the road until they can fix it.
Funny, this is the complete opposite of my experience. Greenfield projects I've been a part of have had a ton of highly visible progress with _frequent_ updates to stakeholders basically from day 1. Same goes for complex additional features.
Of course you can call out the former examples as incompetent or hubris, and they will probably occur less and less, but nevertheless they exist.
From my time at AWS, and in light of the recent DynamoDB dns race condition bug, this is a line of thinking that is problematic.
There is so much complexity in the inner workings of any one of those services. Many of those services are now composed of many teams, each having turned over completely multiples of times.
Yes there are runbooks and knowledge passed down from each generation, to some extent. But when you hit some critical outage, edge case, etc., those people running the systems have such a different relationship to the system having simply maintained it vs. built it.
I think its more analogous to a car with some problems that may be going unchecked; it still drives and gets you from A->B, until it doesn’t.
Long stays in most companies are practically non-existent these days, apart from a few folks who are present for long, unfortunately these people are often called lifers, coasters etc.
Simply put, no one person can say they contributed most to the building of a system. Barring very few rare projects.
So you already need the runbook, documentation model to run things, for the reason people themselves work along those lines.
They’ll add a few sleep(5) calls to make them go away though..
> They’ll add a few sleep(5) calls to make them go away though..
I don't think torginus's point is that the new devs will find the proper fixes for the code, more that such a hack might be good enough in the eyes of both the company's management and the company's users.
As much as it pains me to recognize this (as a fan of clean, elegant code) not every bit of software needs to be clean and elegant to achieve its intended purpose (which is, at least in the corporate software world being discussed here, to make money).
If you meet the needs of your software's users, you can make a lot of money for a lot of years selling a piece of crap held together with chewing gum and elastic bands (and many companies have).
If the managers where you work understand the dangers of taking on such tech debt and are willing to put in the resources to avoid it, consider yourself lucky, because in my experience that's not at all universal, or even particularly common, though it does certainly exist at some places.
You can build faster now that you ever have: I am building faster than I have in 25 years of engineering. You have more capable support for all the unfamiliar processes of building a business imaginable.
And almost everyone larger than you is finding it harder to achieve similar productivity gains from implementing AI, if not outright struggling with it. This is a golden moment and won't last long.
It's just work, there's no secrets to it.
If a bunch of additional people start going and building MVPs, what keeps that from becoming even more of a flood, like what you get if you post a job application on LinkedIn nowdays?
I think sales is likely to get harder, not easier, soon.
And to your earlier post, I think the big question is: can individuals get more done on their own now building new things because of less organizational issues compared to incumbents, or because of less product complexity and scope? Is the organization the problem, or is the complexity of stuff built to try to service a thousand different previous sales deals and customers?
Right now GeAI is making it easier for many people to get started on projects they have.
It’s improving starts of new projects.
GenAI is not creating demand for new projects. Or new novels, new movies, new stories.
People are ending up creating, essentially, for themselves.
Truly, AI levels the playing field, if you just have the inclination to look at it that way. It brings such potential to the right people. In my hands, a software developer who has been slinging code for food for 40+ years, I am a 'god' with a cheap monthly subscription to Claude Code. I can run several projects and keep track of every one of them and see progress like I've never had that chance to, in my entire lifetime. And yes, I still wield the stick, because I KNOW how to do this stuff. Claude really doesn't. Claude just gives me raw material, individual orchestral parts as it were, that I can put together with a conductor's baton.
My enterprise client? They get barebones slop. Enough to keep things alive but yet never be scalable and extendable. And they deserve that. They slaughtered our entire US based team and went overseas. They retain me to keep the wheels on while offshore wires up worthless, unpredictable AI agents to 'enhance' the product. I'm taking their money until I can break free sometime next year. They get the scraps now, and they will never know until karma brings them their bitter fruit.
My personal project. A really, really fun and fluid development momentum. Truly art and logic combined with Claude doing the grunt work for me. Absolutely a blast and it will have a user base, and the user base will really enjoy the results.
New partnerships. You can now make ANYONE you know, that much more viable, that much more tech savvy. As an individual, with your talents and our new little 'digital helpers', you, yourself can become the David to any Goliath you wish. You can help elevate ideas, small teams, and aspiring entrepreneurs and have a blast doing so.
Shed the notion that this moment has to be dark for you. It doesn't. It just takes seeing that maybe, just maybe, the boneheads that are trying to capitalize in these horrendous actions which include lying about AI, lying about the reasons they are laying off, etc. are bringing about their very demise in real time. Clueless as to what they are doing.
And those of us with the knowledge, ethics, high standards, discipline, and honor, are now armed with the very thing that can bring down those who created it to harm us.
It IS a golden moment!
If anyone is worried about their job, it won't be AI that takes it - it will be outsourcing. The US offshores 300k jobs per year with a high percentage of them being IT (60-80% depending on source). It's really not that different to the offshoring of manufacturing decades ago. Why pay people onshore when you can pay someone in India half of that? Any job that doesn't require a physical presence or has legal pressures to keep it onshore will be at risk. It will likely get worse over time, just like manufacturing. I don't know what the future will look like if we continue outsourcing everything. It used to be that we outsource primary and secondary sector activies so that we could expand tertiary industries. What are we replacing the outsourced jobs with now?
We had British SaaS supplier and all the time I have talked with Bangalore-based people. They had to work in night I suppose…
Source: lived in India for a year.
Stuff that’s hella-illegal, that not even the remotest WFH citizen would ever try to pull, might look very tasty from another perspective. Economics that favour that cheap labour also means even marginal scams can seem wildly tempting on the other side.
They do this because it often works: business people often lack the experience to tell whether excuses are correct, and large organizations have enough project churn that it’s entirely possible to wing it for the duration of a contract / pivot, get paid, and move on before someone knowledgeable notices that the old deliverables didn’t really work.
What they had in common was greed, and I think that’s where the association with India comes from, too, but as a selection bias affecting people who don’t otherwise have exposure to Indian workers: there’s a floor on what a productive developer is going to get paid – someone smart enough to do the job is also smart enough to realize when they’re being underpaid and all of the abuses I’ve seen were cases where some combination of the outsourcing outfit and senior management were basically saying “why cut our cost by just 30% when we can find someone who’ll show up to work for ¼ of our staff rate?” and then acting surprised when they can’t retain decent people (e.g. I once talked to a guy who had two clues to rub together as he was leaving and learned he was getting ⅓ of the hourly rate and bailed as quickly as possible to get closer to market rate). Less ethical American companies do that, too, but they still lose to the even cheaper body shops so they aren’t as successful, but in all cases I would say it’s not the entire nation’s culture but the subset of fake-it-til-you-make-it business types. Plenty of people in both countries detest that and don’t deserve to be lumped in with them.
I have, and while of course not 100% of any society is ever any specific way, Indian society is this way.
In the same way as german society is very ‘rules oriented’ (to put it mildly), even when individual germans can (and sometimes are!) the opposite.
Don’t mess with the Polizei and expect to come out unscathed, and don’t expect to get what you paid for (or what you’re asked to pay being a fair price) without fighting for it in India.
It’s just the way things work.
Occasionally, there are exceptions, but they typically prove the rule. (Ikea in India is awesome, for instance. And some individual local vendors are too. Autorickshaw drivers, cabbies, landlords, and vendors in busy markets tend to be the worst. Like 5x a fair price sometimes, or a fair price and 1/5 of what you should get. And in some situations, the Polizei are very kind. Like if you’re lost and a pleasant drunk. But do not argue with the Polizei, it will go very badly.).
Like in any society, these have reasons which are extremely obvious to most people in the society, and may not be obvious until you live there. When everyone is trying to penny pinch/get rich quick because of a history of extractive behavior from authorities and economic instability to an extreme degree (including famines), or when or when there is a history/culture of strong willed people doing what they want and making life harder for everyone else (in an environment where that can get people killed), for instance.
Frankly the race to the bottom does result in net good for humanity as a whole - but the transition period is not kind to the people who are losing their jobs.
It’s genius, in a way.
They have a few very competent developers who are primarily in the secondary sales in my experience. First sales contact is between non-technical management and their front-line sales (usually very attractive women). In the second sales contact, technical staff from the potential client is involved and they bring along their real developers. But those are not the ones you'll get on the project. They'll give you interviews with the developers you can get, and they're coached for the interviews and sound fine. But then in reality they are people who can't touch type and develop purely by trial and error without forming a mental model.
If hiring locally wasn't such a mess, nobody would talk to them. At some point even a junior developer is better than not having a developer at all. I assume AI will change that and they'll get replaced first.
Even Japan has become pro-Indian on immigration for tech: https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/11/06/takaichis-japan-looks-t... Wtf...
So you basically can pay an Indian immigrant a junior dev salary, for significantly-better-than-junior-dev work. It's just stonks.
Not even close. We had two offshore contractors working with our team for about two years and they were consistently terrible. Despite this, some higher up pressed us to “hire” them so we conducted an interview. One of them said they had 8+ years of SQL query optimization experience and could not explain what a table scan was. The other claimed to have 5 years of C++ experience and thought a pointer was a url. I am not exaggerating.
Whereas our team’s college intern turned junior dev has consistently delivered increasingly valuable contributions and doesn’t lie to us.
As far as I understand, there's extreme variance between highest-tier and lowest-tier universities and it's not necessarily reflected in salaries when they're hired by Western companies.
YMMV
One of the first startups I worked at in the early aughts, I started as a front-end dev. Indian dude a few cubes over. I'm not kidding, he had a "Learn .Net Nuke" Wrox book he was constantly pouring over.
He was gone on my second day. Apparently the company had hired an outside recruiter who interviewed someone and when they got the job, this dude showed up. Apparently this was a really common scam back then.
I see not much has changed.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/silicon-valley-has-a-caste-d...
https://wol.iza.org/news/tech-giant-accused-of-hiring-bias-i...
etc..
There’s a lot of opportunities for personal networks, nepotism and plain old corruption to work. (Who is going to figure out that somebody dropped a few gold coins to your sibling as a kickback?) There’s a much smaller network of people with relationships to Eastern European or other companies.
Unlike eastern Europe, India is geopolitically in a pretty good spot right now, having decent relations with most developed countries, and not engaged in any major wars with its neighbors. The last company I worked for outsourced a lot of work to Russia. At a certain time in 2022 they suddenly had to shift a lot of that work to... India!
India’s long term positioning of neutrality and strategy with business, education and politics is bearing fruit.
Here is an article putting together data from GitHub about SW developers per country.
https://data-player.com/highest-number-of-software-developer...
When talking about outsourcing jobs from the U.S., you’re obviously gonna exclude the U.S. China is also not a factor. Neither are Western European countries or countries like Japan and S Korea because of relatively high salaries. Russia is out due to long standing geopolitical issues.
That basically leaves Brazil and Indonesia as the only alternatives to India in the top 10 and combined they don’t even have half the number of SW developers as India.
You need to then add Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, Philippines and Poland to the above 3 to add up to the number of SW developers present in India.
Thats why the outsourcing industry is concentrated in India. You can setup 1 office in India and have access to as many SW developers (Indians are also very willing to migrate domestically, so an office in a single city is sufficient to cater to the entire domestic developer market) as you would if you setup 8 offices in & different countries across 4 continents.
>70% is a pretty insane number that certainly speaks for itself.
Also, when you start giving a lot of tech jobs to people from one specific country, then the github developer numbers will naturally reflect that.
It is easy to make the 'cheap' argument when you talk about outsourcing but it no longer makes sense when you look at h1b numbers.
No it doesn't, not materially anyway. Stats can be misleading if you don't pay attention. A lot of the big corps started hiring H1-B in large numbers long ago but since H1-Bs can't easily switch jobs and tend to suck up to higher-ups, soon their mid-management was occupied by H1-Bs.
Anybody who has tried to find a job in such an environment knows the drill - Indian managers hire only Indians and prefer H1-Bs to keep them docile. Salary isn't a consideration there, but it all starts with "cheap" and is sustained by ethnic loyalty and fear of the outsider.
In smaller companies where hiring is more natural, H1-Bs are still payed less and their inability to switch jobs makes them cheaper still.
Local salaries might even be slightly lower, because you get to hold h1bs prisoner (an added benefit.)
Indians are more visible, but salary expections have gotten extremely out of whack in the US, and extended WFH during COVID proved to most boards that companies can continue to operate when entire teams are communicating async.
If a large portion of interns and NCGs in the US are essentially expecting $45-70/hr salaries, it just isn't sustainable especially when factoring the growing skills deficit because universities failed CS students to a certain degree over the past 10 years by watering down programs in a short term bid to compete against bootcamps.
If we are paying Bay Area salaries, we expect performance comensurate to that salary. Basically, all companies are now starting to adopt the Netflix model of hiring in the US.
How much do you pay annually out of pocket for health insurance premiums and other healthcare expenses?
In the US that expense is very high, and is a major source of worry for working families.
For a family of four, the average health plan is around $10k out of pocket from the employee along with around $20k in employer costs [0]. Yet the median American SWE salary is $187k [1] versus $66k in Poland [2], $93k in Canada [3], and $111k in the UK [4]. Either way an American ends up earning significantly more after healthcare costs and insurance.
The issue is salary expectations at the lower performance band haven't kept up with what is expected at that salary band.
> In the US that expense is very high, and is a major source of worry for working families
When benchmarked against similar peer cities in Canada [5] or the UK [6], CoL is roughly at par yet salaries are significantly higher in the US, especially when comparing peer tech markets like SF [7] versus London [8].
This is the crux of the issue - demanding 100% WFH well past the end of COVID made it hard for us to justify domestic hiring when
1. Async was successfully proven to not impact business operation
2. A reverse brain drain of all nationalities in the US during COVID meant it was easier for employers to work with them to open a hub office or GCC abroad
3. A new grad is demanding salaries that simply don't make the economics of training and hiring new grads work. At $70k-$110k it does, but not beyond that.
4. Companies have now adopted the Netflix model - by cutting low performers, we can actually give higher pay bands to employees who actually have a business impact, as can be reflected in the rise in 75th percentile tech salaries.
[0] - https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/how-muc...
[1] - https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/united-...
[2] - https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/canada
[3] - https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/canada
[4] - https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/united-...
[5] - https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_resu...
[6] - https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_resu...
[7] - https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?cou...
Not really.
No one wants to leave their families, and the upper tier of salaries in alternative geos are high enough to capture the higher talent tier because their salary expectations are based on their domestic condition.
On top of that, the US immigration system is severely backlogged. It can take decades for Chinese and Indian nationals to become green card holders, and we as employees increasingly expect foreign nationals to pay the filing costs - not us.
> other is simply that these companies exist in the US, which means collaboration needs to be done in US time zones, which makes overseas workers far less efficient and having major negative impacts on worker morale
Not anymore. WFH proved async work models can ensure business continuity.
On top of that, the bulk of layoffs during COVID were workers on work visas who were given the option to return to their home countries and open an office there.
This is what Google did in Hyderabad, Bangalore, and Warsaw, Databricks in Bangalore, Amazon in Canada and India, and Nvidia in Bangalore.
Furthermore, we as employers don't really sponsor VPs, Engineering Managers/Directors, Product Managers, and Staff/Principal Engineers on O-1 visas. Most are stuck on some form of EB1/2 or L1/2, and those who apply to O1s who aren't founders or extremely critical to the business are being sponsored but filing out-of-pocket.
It just isn't attractive to immigrate to America long term anymore as a white collar employee in most cases now aside from unicorn roles which employees then use to boomerang back to executive roles or demand US salaries in their home country.
Ideally we need to build a domestic talent pipeline, but universities failed severely by watering down curricula in an attempt to compete with bootcamps, which burnt a lot of employers disincentivizing them from hiring early career, and state and local jurisdictions in the US just don't give us the support or pipeline needed to build a competitive early career hiring pipeline.
For example, in cybersecurity, I can hire someone in Israel who has done offensive security work for a couple years in a military, police, internal security capacity or someone in India who participated in one of the dozens of Police Force, Army, or Home Affairs cybersecurity internship programs. Similar programs like Cyberpatriots and the Cyber Incentive Program (approx $100M) were mismanaged as was found in a 2023-25 investigation by the DHS OIG [0][1] and an entire generation of students of cybersecurity scholarships quit in 2016 when the Trump 1 admin cut funding for cybersecurity scholarship programs.
[0] - https://fedscoop.com/cisa-cyber-incentive-program-dhs-inspec...
[1] - https://www.oig.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/2025-09/O...
For 2x the salary young men have proven time and again they are willing to take the risk.
> On top of that, the US immigration system is severely backlogged. It can take decades for Chinese and Indian nationals to become green card holders, and we as employees increasingly expect foreign nationals to pay the filing costs - not us.
A challenge for sure. This and what you go on to describe could certainly shift some junior labor from H1B to remote contract. I would expect that shift to have a mostly net zero impact on other American exployment.
> > other is simply that these companies exist in the US, which means collaboration needs to be done in US time zones, which makes overseas workers far less efficient and having major negative impacts on worker morale
> Not anymore. WFH proved async work models can ensure business continuity.
Every non-US team I've worked with and everyone I know that works with offshore still have meetings. It would be incredibly dysfunctional to not have any collaborative time.
> Ideally we need to build a domestic talent pipeline, but universities failed severely by watering down curricula in an attempt to compete with bootcamps, which burnt a lot of employers disincentivizing them from hiring early career, and state and local jurisdictions in the US just don't give us the support or pipeline needed to build a competitive early career hiring pipeline.
Is that really what is happening? Because based on everything I can see, hiring standards are the highest they have ever been. As we get older, we have a bias towards underestimating the capabilities of younger generations, because we can see them making familiar mistakes in real-time.
First, sexist, and secondly in 2025 there's no guarantee that you would be able to live in the US long term on a work visa (but it's been this way since the mid-2010s), and if someone really feel the urge to immigrate to the West, then Australia, Canada, Netherlands, and Germany are all easier and (excluding Germany) Anglophone (yes, NL is de facto Anglophone now).
The US just isn't as attractive a location to immigrate to anymore for a large amount of people in white collar roles.
For the cream of the crop who primarily target American BigTech (GAYMAN) or HFTs like Citadel or Jane Street, in India the salary and ESPP grant can afford you household help, a nice condo, and make enough money that you can invest in building generational wealth or angel invest. It was a similar story for Chinese over the past 10-15 years as well.
For Europeans and Canadians, both are extremely turned off to America due to the Trump admin, and at portfolio companies we've seen a significant amount of requests from employees to shift away from the US as a result. Even Israelis increasingly don't target the US anymore because of perceptions and have begun choosing Germany, Czechia, or remaining in Israel.
> I would expect that shift to have a mostly net zero impact on American exployment
A lot of senior managers and leadership in tech companies are in the same boat with work visas as I mentioned before. All visas categories go through the same backlog for naturalization in the US - be you a manager, VC, factory worker, or SWE. Heck the creator of PyTorch is himself on one of these visas despite being employed at Meta.
> Every non-US team I've worked with and everyone I know that works with offshore still have meetings. It would be incredibly dysfunctional to not have any collaborative time
Absolutely, but everyone makes time for Zoom meetings and finds a way to make it work, or people like me will hire someone else who can get it done.
> Is that really what is happening
Yes in cybersecurity and a large portion of databases. I even explained why in other HN comments [0]
This is why most of our dealflow is now in Israel, Eastern Europe, and India. Look at recent exists like Wiz ans PingSafe.
Even recent cybersecurity companies that IPOed like Netskope and Rubrik have overwhelmingly hired in Israel or India and with leadership being Israeli or Indian either in origin or nationality.
So we are in agreement that work cannot be fully async.
There are clearly some forces at play that are changing how immigration works in the short-term. I think where we differ is mostly this: our anecdotal experiences are radically different (I would say competency is increasing not decreasing as a general trend) and I would never bet against the momentum of the US long-term, nor do I believe that quality tends to remain steady or increase with offshoring. Maybe things are different in your niche. I appreciate being given a view into a different perspective!
Most people here in the US don't have white collar jobs nor compensation of a software engineer. They work in retail or other blue and pink collar professions.
A Canadian retail worker has much more affordable access to healthcare than their US counterpart.
A SWE isn't in competing for the same jobs as a cashier at London Drugs.
This is just me, might not be representative, but as an indian CS graduate, I was willing to move to the US temporarily if it meant I could make FIRE money and return to India and basically chill out and work at interesting jobs without worrying about needing MNC/unicorn money to live well. I saw broadly two ways to do this - the startup scene, and the ridiculously high new grad salaries (which would enable FIRE in india after a few years) in the US back in early 2020s - when I was graduating. By the time I finished though, those salaries dried up like you are saying, and startup exits are easier in Blore these days and I can get funding from the usual bunch by just domiciling in Spore like flipkart did. Note that I did not expect the current AI bubble to last this long. Potentially could have cashed out on that. My impression is that if you know nvcc exists, you get money thrown at you in the US today... All in all, the idea fizzled out. Among my peers too, the people who went there for the usual M.S at a UC --> california job market pipeline are all people who are sure they want to settle in the US long-term, through the visa troubles and all. Others didn't go.
Point is, those high salaries were a big draw to a lot of people here including me. And in the absence of that companies now need to move here to get access to the same people. I think it is happening, unicorns/GCCs here are now paying quite well. I mean I had almost the median EU tech salary ($60K - 52LPA) for india cost of living at my _starting job_. So without the US starting salary being 150K-200K (a salary unattainable in india anywhere) like it was 5 years ago, it's a hard sell. Senior salaries are still high of course, but if you have to stay there 10+ years, you have a family there, kids there, loans there, and it is basically committing to settling in the US. Meaning that without the added security of the backup plan "return and you're either FIRE or super comfortable", its much more of a commitment to move. My circles have a selection bias of course, and for people who did not manage to get top 10% salaries here, the risk/reward is completely different.
And your anecdote is exactly what I am trying to explain on HN.
We as employers are fine paying high salaries to mid-career talent, but it's hard to justify hiring a middle of the pack new grad from CSU East Bay for a $130k base salary new grad role when I can hire a mid-career US returned FAANG dev in BLR or HYD for $70k-90k TC.
We will still hire new grads in the US for a $130k-$180k base, but they will have to actually be worth it. The brutal reality is, if you didn't attend a target CS program for your Bachelors (Stanford, Cal, MIT, UIUC, CMU, UT Austin, GT, UMich, UW, Cornell, Harvard, Columbia), at this point you probably aren't landing a high paying CS job - just like how in India if you didn't get a good JEE score, you're essentially relegated to being stuck at WITCH because you didn't get into a good BTech program, and it's an employer's market
A lot of people on HN assume Indians (and other foreign nationals) only do b*tch work like legacy springboot crap (and ofc plenty of people do), but an equally large cohort is doing legitimately competitive and innovative work.
But what about after masters? What are the expectations there? Now of course there is the research path which is publishing well in your masters, working at deepmind or nvidia etc,. But I am talking about people doing non-thesis MS and then entering the job market. Is the base salary for those people still high?
Same for me, except out of high school, and a decade earlier.
That's the sordid tale of the industry. Outside of a handful of FAANG high flyers, pay, in real dollars, has been very steadily decreasing over many decades. But it took high inflation for us to notice.
Now we're in a difficult spot because we feel we need to make more to make up for the considerably higher cost of living, but there is no market willing to pay more — and never was.
The market can bear to pay high salaries for the right talent.
If you can show me you have tangible development skills and can think about the product or feature you develop as a business (eg. Can you justify to me in financial terms the net benefit doing a refactor does versus keeping the status quo) you will be fine.
We aren't going to pay you $300k-$400k TC just to be a code monkey. We expect you to be able to help inform actual business decisions and not be a PITA when thinking about the core metrics that matter for a business - NARR, FCF, and COGS.
So, being a developer who is specialized in a business domain (eg. Being a fullstack developer but with a decade of experience working on Cloud Security products) makes it easier for hiring managers to decide whether or not to hire you. And as a former PM, those kinds of Engineers are the best to work with becuase they understand the pitfalls that exist in a subdomain and have opinions and the ability to justify them.
Those who can upskill or show the ability to upskill are also worth their weight in TC.
And finally, you will have to be located in Tier 1 tech hubs now (Bay Area, Seattle, Austin, NYC). The 5-7 year blip of satellite offices in RTP or Denver or Portland or being 100% WFH in a cabin in Montana is over. The roles at these kinds of offices are the ones that get offshored first.
Exactly. Adjusted for cost of living, $300,000 in SF or NYC is about $170,000 where I lived back then, so ~$80/hr. Which is, after adjusted for inflation to that time... You guessed it: $50.94/hr!
And you're pointing at high quality talent with considerable experience, not some kid out of high school. Said kid out of high school like I was back then isn't going to find that much in today's market. As you point out, the market has tanked big time — and has been tanking for decades.
As before, we're only just now starting to notice how far behind we’ve fallen because of things recently becoming exceptionally more expensive.
I've lived in SF over the same time period as well, and my CoL hasn't changed aside from rent - I've kept the same consistent savings rate - but even rent was largely manageable for me because of job opportunities and a mix of local and state rent control.
That said, I do think being Asian or Latiné means having different buying preferences (eg. the bulk of my shopping is at ethnic grocery stores and my "white people food" is primarily sourced from Costco or TJ).
Ofc, looking visibly ethnic also gives me the ethnic discount at most places I shop at.
> Said kid out of high school like I was back then isn't going to find that much in today's market. As you point out, the market has tanked big time — and has been tanking for decades
Oof, that is actually a good point. Sadly, you are right about that. I don't think hiring managers in the US would take a risk on hiring a HSer even if they have the right skills and domain experience.
-----------
That said, I am starting to come around to your argument.
Edit: can't reply but every single white collar job provides an employer healthcare plan that is equally as competitive as the public healthcare plans in Canada and the UK.
And especially if you were being paid $50/hr as a new grad in 2014.
Edit 2:
> And I was in Michigan.
All the more reason I would have pushed back severely. It's easier to find talent at scale in London or GTA - metros there have a population larger than the entire state of MI, and with a breadth of options beyond UMich Ann-Arbor.
The key word there is employer. Contractors often don't get health insurance, and contract jobs are not uncommon in the US.
On sheer metrics of access and quality, America kicks the shit out of Europe and Canada
The OP's point is why the wealthy in your country comes to the US for healthcare
This is what upsets me about my career--that logistic pay curve. You initially grow fast and then it tops out and never gets better, but your costs keep rising, particularly as you have a family. I'm paying for one kid's college tuition right now, she has 1.5 years left, and will then enter a dubious job market. My son is 15, so if he goes to college, I won't be paying tuition for him until Fall 2028.
The problem is, I'm no longer a developer. I'm currently a nothing working on figuring out "something." I have a lot of skills and talents, but seemingly not many that will pay. I'm looking at any 2yr. training program that can get me certified to do something useful. It's so freaking bizarre to be sitting here with a degree in CS/Math, an MS in Computer Engineering from a very reputable university, and a doctorate in Information Management, also from a very reputable university, and looking at basically doing blue collar work! My nation has utterly failed me in every possible manner.
I should add that we are looking to move out of our fairly high-cost of living state for a possibly lower cost of living state, but there are complications to that plan, too. My wife doesn't really want to move our son out of the high school he is in. I'm saying that other imperatives need to be addressed before they become full-blown crises. I'm being taxed to death, and costs like insurance are rising fast.
We've failed ourselves too, though. If I was some random person with endless money burning a hole in my pocket, what would I even do with a CS/Math/Computer engineer/Information manager? It is in no way clear how life is improved by working with such a person. Other industries put a lot of effort into marketing what function they serve. Said random person knows exactly when and why they'd want to hire a plumber, electrician, structural engineer, lawyer, accountant, physician, etc. But us...? We've rested on our laurels thinking Google, Microsoft, and Meta will forever want us, putting no effort into expanding our market.
I guess GCC night be Global Capability Center?
NCG - New College Grad
You ain't dense btw, it's a good question. Keep asking questions!
Nope.
Subsidiaries need to pay domestic taxes which in a lot of cases are significantly higher than those in the US. That said, countries like Czechia, Poland, and India help by covering the cost of each employee per head depending on amount spent.
> you can fire them all if you want
Nope.
In my past experience, we need to follow domestic labor laws and they do not budge on hiring or firing in Czechia, Poland, Israel, or India. Ofc, the financial hit of hiring the wrong person is much lower there than in the US, and unlike the US those jurisdictions provide a single window or tribunal dedicated to disputes foreign investors may face.
Same with the UK and the film industry.
-----------
Basically, American jurisdictions became significantly non-responsive to services businesses after COVID and the 2020 election because white collar industries just didn't matter politically speaking (they represented a fraction of hiring and jobs in most competitive seats).
The same kinds of hand-holding support I mentioned above used to be provided by jurisdictions like NC, the Bay Area, NY, TX, etc, but local politicians don't care anymore and local and state governments are severely backlogged and attritted significant amount of personnel who understood business promotion.
The big issue with outsourcing to WITCH or EPAM was you were essentially paying $30k-50k per head but getting the lowest tier of talent becuase those companies would pay around $5k-15k salaries to maximize their margins.
As such, companies decided to just open offices in India, Poland, Czechia, etc to poach talent in those countries because people are only productive if well remunerated, and remove the middle man out of it.
Ofc, the traditional Indian outsourcing companies like TCS [0] and HCL [1] have also begun pivoting away from Software outsourcing towards becoming end-to-end chip design companies, Infosys pivoting to becoming an end-to-end MedTech company [2], and Wipro becoming an aviation and defense manufacturer [3][4] because of a mix of Indian government subsidizes and Taiwanese, Japanese, and American FDI.
[0] - https://www.tataelectronics.com/semiconductor-foundry
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-approves-hcl-foxco...
[2] - https://www.infosys.com/services/engineering-services/insigh...
You mean cost of living and inflation has devalued the dollar.
The response is inflation. It would only be a solution if it works, and of all the countries or empires that tried it in the past you'd be hard pressed to find one that succeeded at correcting their economy long term by debasing their own currency.
The devaluation of the dollar relative to other currencies will eventually make it profitable for work to move to the US.
I think we're not seeing that yet because there's an imperfect coupling between asset price inflation, consumer price inflation, and exchange rates.
The only way its a long term solution is if globalization is so fundamentally different from what other countries and empires have felt with that they can actually devalue at just the right rate to bring work back here.
Getting that rate right seems like a tiny needle to thread though, and that only works if this situation is different from when other currencies were devalued intentionally.
Yes it has. Euro costs 10% more in USD than one year ago
But more or less only the euro. The USD has strengthened or held steady against INR, RMB, CAD, AUD, etc. The euro is strengthening even more, however.
By those metrics the dollar has lost a lot of value in the last year
Once Diwali ended a couple weeks ago, Gold prices slumped [2].
The same thing happened with Silver [3].
You used to see similar stuff happen around CNY back when China was growing at double digit speeds [4].
[0] - https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/10/27/indians-spend-up-to-11-b...
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/winners-losers-indias-sw...
[2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-20/gold-s-re...
[3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-18/sold-out-...
[4] - https://ecomod.net/system/files/gold_and_china_ecomod2013.pd...
The interplay between bond yields, the fed funds rate, and inflation can lead to weird situations. Right noe the Fed is having to lower rates because (a) job numbers are pretty bad and (b) the US debt is held in a surprising number of short term bonds and higher rates make the debt just rack up faster. They're also watching inflation continue to chug along higher than their 2% target though, a scenario they'd normally raise rates for.
I won't be surprised if we ultimately realize that, in the end, those in charge had way less control of the economy than they like to claim. I'm biased though, that's always been my view and it frustrates me that economics claims to be a field of science at all. It can be a very interesting and important historical analysis but it isn't predictive, and at the level of macroeconomics it can't realistically be isolated and tested.
Either you lower US standard of living to match the countries it is currently outsourcing to or you establish protectionism and isolationist policies with a focus on total efficiency rather than short-term gains.
You increase the debt when you are devaluing your currency.
On top of that, both the British and Canadian governments give some degree of tax subsidy and regulatory support, though not to the degree that India, Israel, Poland, Czechia, or Romania provide.
Why should I pay Jeff from NCSU a US$175K TC in RTP when I can get Jane who chose to return to Toronto after living in the US working for large companies throughout her 20s?
A lot of techies on HN really underestimate the amount of reverse brain drain that happened during and after COVID. The COVID layoffs in early-mid 2020 primarily targeted those on some kind of work visa, and a number of those laid off were given the option to take a pay cut but also open a node in their home country.
Edit: can't reply so replying here
> I hear this, but the fact is a 70% pay cut in the Bay Area would simply not be workable at all
This is why we began opening offices in RTP, Denver, Chicago, NYC, etc in the 2017-22 period because we could pay closer to London or Toronto salaries back then in those offices and we had state level support.
All of that went to the wayside after COVID because a large portion of our workforce reverse braindrained, and someone in RTP demanding WFH and a Bay Area salary in a metro where CoL is comparable to Fresno and where we had to spend significant amounts of capital in commercial real estate to unlock tax benefits is ridiculous.
We are fine paying high salaries and TC, but it needs to be justified by actually high tier talent. Think the Netflix model.
My other comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45867014
Poland [0][8]
Ireland [1][2]
Czechia [3][4]
Canada [5][6]
Turkiye [7]
The expansion of Indian offices is a result of the reverse brain drain that accelerated during the early COVID layoffs along with the EB1/2 backlogs - a number of Staff and above Engineers, EMs and above, and Sr PMs and above who were on work visas were either cut or given the option to relocate to India and start a hub office.
A similar trend happened in other countries, but India being so large means they get overshadowed.
[0] - https://www.gov.pl/web/primeminister/google-invests-billions...
[1] - https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-6-20-amd...
[2] - https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/news-and-events/department-news...
[3] - https://www.itpro.com/business/cato-networks-announces-major...
[4] - https://www.onsemi.com/company/news-media/press-announcement...
[5] - https://www.reuters.com/business/lyft-open-toronto-tech-hub-...
[6] - https://www.connectcre.ca/stories/amazon-plans-toronto-offic...
[7] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uber-invest-200-ml...
[8] - https://news.microsoft.com/pl-pl/2025/02/17/microsoft-announ...
[1] only $135 Million
[2] only 1,300 new employees (over 6,000 current); meanwhile "Apple India leases [...] likely to be one of the largest single-tenant office leases in [Bengaluru]" https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/app...
[3] Never even heard of Cato Networks, and no figures. So irrelevant.
[4] onsemi manufacturing $2bn, not relevant as this is manufacturing numbers (Apple India is expanding multiple times that)
[5] No numbers, 2,934 employees. Mentions increment 20% of local market and an acquisition. Not relevant.
[6] Amazon plans 8,500 employees in the two [Canadian] cities. Meanwhile "Amazon to invest $233M to strengthen India operations network" https://www.aboutamazon.in/news/operations/amazon-to-invest-... (OTOH: they are laying off 800-1000 in India, out of over 15,000 desk employees just in Hyderabad)
[7] Uber to invest $200 mln in Turkey. Peanuts compared to the billions in my links.
From your submissions it seems like you are Indian or something.
With AI even dumb people feel smart - thanks to the overconfident answers, I am expecting this to be race to the bottom. Even the highly skilled offshore employee is not safe. Middle managers crunching numbers and looking at the bottom line might be convinced that if AI + less experienced but cheaper "human in the loop" can produce "similar" result at 10-20% of the original cost then that is worth it. I am personally dealing with such middle managers nowadays day in and day out. They seem blown away by Copilot demos and keep pushing "savings" and don't seem to understand AI hallucinations at all.
Started doing automation about 6 years ago. We had several offshore teams. The one caveat was that the company was vying for several government contracts. One of the requirements was the ability to pass a low level security clearance and on yeah, you cannot, under any circumstances off shore any of the work.
Therefore, they needed an onshore team to handle the government work.
Well, when things got slow, our team was essentially the clean up team. We had several hockey players on our team so we nicknamed our team "Zamboni". A large chunk of what we were doing was fixing the off shore teams coding and things would break so regularly two of devs became full-time off shore support.
The company was literally paying our off-shore team to build an automation. Then when it constantly break, they would pull us in to fix it.
Absolutely maddening they couldn't understand they were paying triple or quadruple for work we could do once properly instead of two or three times before we got it.
I think this is going to be a new golden age kf innovation. Lot of senior engineers capable of pencil whipping microservice infrastructure paired with industry experience means startup mill goes brrrr
The remainder of the talent tends to struggle with some of the outsourced work, but with AI they can now give a semblance of competence.
In the UK a major retailer, Mark and Spencer got hacked after outsourcing work to India. They couldn't fulfill orders online for months, and they are now reducing the amount of work they outsource to India.
We will see something similar happen to other companies in a year or two, but until then we just have to tighten our belts and hope we don't get layed off before then.
Just perusing on google for roles at google in hyderabad, I think its significantly lower than the US.
We've lost a decent number of engineers to Google, Facebook, and Amazon in India.
My company wants to pay roughly $50k USD in India per dev and that's just not enough. They've tried to compete by making nicer facilities and better in office benefits (like a cafeteria) but it's just not enough.
In those locations?
Based on sheer CS grad numbers why wouldn't companies just shift their r& operations there then?
There are lots of CS grads, yes. But most colleges out there are mostly degree mills, and this carries on to the workplace, where your average software engineer or engineering manager has very little understanding of what they’re actually doing (this[1] article was posted on HN, which will tell you the quality of engineering in India).
For anything slightly complicated, companies seem to be only interested in hiring from the best colleges and pay out of their nose in the process. A friend of a friend does some hardware work at a FAANG, and gets paid at almost that level.
The US has the best engineering talent pool in the world and you can find dozens of examples at major companies as bad (or worse) than the one you linked.
I've never heard of typical senior engineers getting paid $400k/yr in those locations.
Outside the US, I've only heard of Zurich being the only comparable location.
Does sound more like correllation than causation. Was there evidence that the Indian devs made the mistakes that led to the hack or was it just the good old 'let's fall back on racism to avoid blame' by management? I still remember the articles where Boeing tried to peg the 737 MAX crashes on Indian engineers who worked for $10 an hour.
As other commenters have pointed out, this is simply bullshit. Good talent in India and the Philippines earn nowhere near US dev salaries. Unless by "very comparable" you mean 1/3 - 1/2.
Just outright insane.
1. It enables them to live in lower cost of living cities. This makes them more competitive relative to outsourcing because a lower wage in a cheaper city goes farther.
2. It opens up the job pool. If you work remote, you can work at any company that takes remote workers regardless of where you live.
3. It reduces the cost of switching jobs. Many people are stuck in jobs they don't want because there are few other local opportunities and switching jobs means uprooting and moving. For a single 20-something in an apartment, that doesn't sound so bad. But once you have a partner with their own career, kids with meaningful friendships, a mortgage, etc. then moving can be extremely disruptive.
In general, more job flexibility increases the efficiency of the job market for employees.
2. Correct. Given that the majority of SW jobs, especially the highest paying ones, were located in the U.S. this is a net benefit to anyone living outside the U.S. even before you take cost into consideration. More American jobs opened up to a Londoner than global jobs opened up to someone living in SF.
3. Efficiency approximately = lower costs. In this case costs = developer salaries.
So you’re right. We got more efficient. We reduced the average cost of developer salaries per job. Since very few people are willing to take a pay cut this means jobs are moving/will move to places where people are willing to work for less.
As someone who is Indian and frequently visits the sub continent (writing this from a suburb in Delhi) I can categorically tell you that no one actively wants to live in the cheapest Indian cities (just left my family’s home city which falls into this bracket).
I’m not sure if you’ve travelled much around the sub continent but I’d say you’re quite badly romanticising it. Yes we have our own culture which is different to that of the USA but, as with all things, there are A Lot of aspects of the culture here which are not admirable.
As others have said, even the richest cities have a swathe of issues which simply do not exist in the west (reasons for which are another discussion).
*looks at air pollution chart which is literally at 359 right this second (01:38)*
Sorry to burst your bubble but, I love living in my T3 city I was born in.
Don't talk for 1.4 billion people.
Thanks.
The data for Indians moving out of India does the talking.
> I can categorically tell you that no one actively wants to live in the cheapest Indian cities
It is pretty easy to disprove it, as me and my friends that are living in T3 cities are pretty content with our lives.
this is comparing Seattle and Mumbai
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?cou...
Real estate is about 2x-1x the price (I bet the cheap stuff is much worse than in the US though).
Cars and more expensive big purchases are cheaper in the US. And don't forget, the US has absolutely first-class-bar-none access to financial services, with abundant cheap loans, so you can support a much nicer lifestyle on the same income.
As someone living in EU and working (and job hunting) for American companies for the last N years I just have never seen it happen. American companies were opening subsidiaries in Europe long before COVID - they were just making everyone go to office there. Surge of remote work didn't seem to bring new American jobs to Europe as far as I could see - if anyone was hiring remotely, it were the same companies that already were hiring for in-office jobs before. Meanwhile, most remote jobs by American companies seem to be open for American residents only.
Thing is, for most locations, you still need to establish a legal presense to hire there, and that is enough of bureacratic burden for most companies to expand their geography very sparingly
I currently live in Seattle. On Zillow, I can find a house in the small town where I grew up with the same stats as mine (square footage, number of bedrooms, baths). That house is about a fourth of the cost that Zillow says my current home is worth.
Oh, and the house in the small town has a 750' storage building out back. And another 1,500' shop. And five acres of land. And a fish pond.
It increases the efficiency of the market as a whole, but that's not the same as saying that first world software engineers (already highly paid and previously protected from foreign competition) would be better off.
Some may accept a significantly lower pay (to go such a long way), but many wouldn't.
Overall my observation is that costs of living doesn't proportionally follow compensation. The far stretched example is how offshore staff often live in countries with costs of living at about a fifth, earning a third of their counterparts in the U.S or other top paying countries
Of course for skilled jobs perfectly doable remote such as software engineers.
I may be biased by the fact it also makes sense, a worker understands the value provided to the business is more or less equal, and since we live in a market society, why wouldn't it be expected to earn the same. In effect we don't earn the same no matter the location, but it is somewhere between that and aligned to location comp.
…
> switching jobs means uprooting and moving. … moving can be extremely disruptive.
This one thing has two aspects that you claim is both a benefit and a drawback simultaneously.
Everything is trade-offs.
Efficiency benefits society at large, at the expense of the people being made more efficient. This is just capitalism and the result of price (and also sometimes societal respect) being a function of scarcity of a product/skill.
There's a reason construction unions, doctor's associations, and the like exist - to promote members interests (i.e. predominately money). If you can cartel an industry to produce lower efficiencies; assuming that a disruptor can't break into your market and ruin your party your members will accrue higher salaries and usually given our system more respect from peers in society. Locally I'm hearing "get a trade"; and when I say I'm a SWE people sneer - the respect for the profession IMO due to "efficiency/AI" has crashed over the last decade.
Tbf, a lot of SWEs sneered at other professions getting automated by AI - even on HN.
There isn't much sympathy to be given to SWEs and techies simply because we are paid significantly higher than other white collar roles with comparable or worse working hours like accounting, marketing, other engineering disciplines, dentistry, nursing, and even various subfields of medicine like primary care physicians.
A lot of techies who are complaining on HN need to realize that in reality they are the elite even though they don't think they are.
Why does Jeff in Cary NC deserve a $200K TC working 40 hours and remote first and just a BS in CS when a CPA at PwC makes $120K TC with added debt from a masters in accounting, a Management Consultant at BCG makes $175K TC with added MBA debt, an Biomedical Engineer at Biogen earning around $120K TC with added debt from bio undergrad and grad school, a journalist working for a local newspaper earning $30k-50k with debt from journalism school, and a teacher earns $50K with debt from getting an education credential on top of a bachelors?
My comment was more I think that "sneer" is more around the profession's worth. A few years ago people would go "wow, that's cool". Very different now which shows status of a job is determined by perceived job prospects, security, and impact.
Big corporations are the opposite. Doing something that looks good locally / helps a quarterly report but works to the detriment of the company as a whole is often par of the course :(
Neither generalization works for ALL cases but hand wavey claims of some ism is small comfort to those of us who've seen the results more than once.
And I've worked with excellent offshored workers as well, but that doesn't make claims to the contrary invalid.
There is also a big difference in mindset between an employee hoping to advance their career at a company, trying to become a SME, pushing initiatives, incentivized by stock grants, actually caring about customers, etc, and a vendor employee - even a good one - to who this is just a temporary gig, and has no vested interest in the quality of the codebase or building value for the company.
If the top down message is "this is the direction, make it work", and people further down in the hierarchy understand that the boss doesn't want to hear that his plan (e.g. hire the cheapest to save money) isn't working, then he is not going to hear it.
I did (and sometimes still do) attend professional events but the level of interpersonal-contact pre-COVID was gone long before I semi-retired.
-Bruce Springsteen (1984)
Go ahead, downvote. As if working in the office would have magically protected you these layoffs.
https://aflcio.org/issues/immigration
> The only way to stop the race to the bottom in wages and standards is for working people of all races, religions and immigration status to stand together
> Find resources to help union members know their rights and ensure they are prepared to defend themselves and the immigrant members of their families and communities in the event of workplace or community raids
What about this one that explicitly advocates for non-Americans?
https://aflcio.org/issues/global-worker-rights
> The AFL-CIO believes that confronting these challenges requires building power for people around the world.
The whole site is just college leftist activism. This isn’t about bettering my job and career
“This approach will ensure that immigration does not depress wages and working conditions or encourage marginal low-wage industries that depend heavily on substandard wages, benefits and working conditions.”
And:
(1) an independent commission to assess and manage future flows, based on labor market shortages that are determined on the basis of actual need;
(2) a secure and effective worker authorization mechanism;
(3) rational operational control of the border;
(4) adjustment of status for the current undocumented population; and
(5) improvement, not expansion, of temporary worker programs, limited to temporary or seasonal, not permanent, jobs.
[0]: https://aflcio.org/resolution/labor-movements-principles-com...
You're not wrong in that companies are looking to hire in cheaper geographies but I think the remote aspect is just a small part of it. Another part is that SV comp has shot through the roof because RSUs. There are also arguably more and better people available in the cheaper geographies.
But it's not a zero sum game and there are still a lot of tech jobs in North America. AI hasn't reduced that total number of jobs.
Talented workers get talented pay -- a fact many company's and execs don't like.
It has very little to do with their literal position on earth in relation to a company's real estate foot print.
Workers need to be more intelligent and what was that word you used in your comment... "collective."
The U.S. managerial class has been GORGING off worker's labor for decades and workers are about to have nothing to show for it.
I've worked with absolutely fantastic developers in Argentina, Poland, Romania and Ukraine. You're right, talented workers get talented pay, but talented pay in Romania is a lot less than talented pay in San Francisco. Teams are used to working entirely remotely now, videoconferencing software is great, and teams mostly align to US timezones (not entirely, but for example Eastern European workers shifted their day a few hours later so we get at least 4-5 hours overlap every day).
I think companies are a lot smarter about outsourcing now than they were 15-20 years ago and focus more on developer quality, but I've absolutely seen that a company will be much happier to hire 2 excellent senior devs from Poland for what you could get for 1 junior college hire in a high cost of living area in the US.
>You're right, talented workers get talented pay, but talented pay in Romania is a lot less than talented pay in San Francisco.
But this is due to again, vastly different standards of living in different economies. Geo-based pay ranges have always been a thing, but I think it's a bit reasonable to draw the line here.
So it's not:
>it absolutely is a part of it ... lol.
Because you're not hiring people from elsewhere because of "well I don't need people HERE anymore." The calculus is the same it ever was, even before COVID.
Companies were already out-sourcing before great video conferencing software or an understanding of how to work with remote teams.
It's an exploitation of different economies, at the expense of the American working class.
It's the same thing, just under a shiny new label designed to absolve the managerial class from said exploitation.
By what metrics?
Pre-2015 or so, yes, of course there was outsourcing, but it was honestly a major PITA in most cases. Most communication was done in conference calls, very little group video communication, lots of async chats, etc.. Any type of work where you needed a fairly frequent black-and-forth with various team members was rarely outsourced - the type of work that was outsourced was the type that was more likely to have static requirements.
But now, though, there is basically no difference working with a colleague who's working from home in the same city vs. working from home thousands of miles away (as long as there is good timezones overlap). And that is a change that only happened around the beginning of the pandemic, and I've personally seen companies much more willing to outsource because of it, and they're outsourcing a much wider type of work (e.g. brand new dev work that is frequently updated based on usage metrics) than they would in the past.
No, because it wasn't actually upgraded.
Like be honest, the shift into remote work wasn't surrounded by massive tech advances or upgrades. All the tools that existed for remote work had been there, largely in the same fashion and capability, for decades.
So when you say the infra. and tooling has improved, you need to be specific because it's very hard to point to anything that was fundamentally or notably improved in the pandemic around remote work.
It all existed before. It was all used before. If you weren't using it before the pandemic that was by choice, not because it didn't exist.
Everything from our communication software, to developer collaboration tools, to how org's track and manage their employees all existed well, well before the pandemic.
It was a cultural change -- not a technological one.
> And that is a change that only happened around the beginning of the pandemic
I'm not sure what you're basing this on. Especially someone's that's had to work with peers across the globe for 4+ decades -- the tools have always been there.
Trying to be charitable, but that is just complete nonsense. I managed an offshore team in 2007, and I managed offshore devs in 2022, and the experiences were world and away different. You're either totally full of shit or just managed teams on some other planet or something.
So you're claiming things radically changed, and if such changes caused a huge shift in the workforce it should be pretty easy to give some examples, yeah?
Instead of going "you're full of shit", just answer the question at hand and the one that was given to you multiple times.
The fact that it's so easy to do and you just spent way more effort not doing it is a pretty clear indication you are following a narrative, and not facts.
1. As the other commenter stated, gigabit Ethernet is now standard, and tons of people, throughout the world, have bandwidth to their home that can easily support high quality video conferencing. That just didn't exist 15+ years ago.
2. Group video chats on consumer grade devices simply didn't exist. Sure, in the mid 00s we had some group video conferencing, but they nearly always required dedicated facilities - people weren't having zoom meetings with 10 individuals from their laptops.
3. But perhaps most importantly, since the world is now used to doing everything remote, offshore teams are rarely "the odd man out". Right up until around the pandemic, most companies were culturally based around the office, and structures were set up to support in-office collaboration. Now, though, everyone is used to being remote anyway, like my favorite cartoon showing the difference between in-office, remote, and hybrid software devs - except there is no difference, because they're all on Zoom all the time anyway.
I just honestly can't believe that someone who managed remote teams in 2005 thinks it's the same as managing in 2025, and the plethora of advancements in networking and remote conferencing tech easily supports that.
1. Gigabit internet - video call quality is significantly better than it was 10-15 years ago.
2. Zoom/Google Meets - the attention Zoom gave to UX just wasn't matched by any other precursor. Google Meets is a close second.
3. GSuite/O365 - sharing documents across organizations and being able to search for them successfully org wide has gotten much better now due to tools like Glean
4. Slack - most traditional companies didn't adopt Slack until the pandemic. Before that they were primarily leveraging email
There has been a whole decade of evolution in productivity and DevTooling throughout the 2010s, and the COVID WFH period forced most orgs (especially traditional orgs) to adopt a lot of that tooling.
On top of that, a large number of mid-level managers, engineers, PMs, and even VPs are in naturalization limbo, so it's become easy to find people to end up leading offices back in their home country while enforcing the same standards as back in the US. MS did this in Israel back in the 2010s, and most companies began doing something similar across Eastern Europe and India during the early years of COVID because most companies legitimately were worried it would become a Great Recession level event.
You don't need gigabit internet for good video quality. We solved this with the MPEG-4, specifically H.264.
Most video streaming software still uses H.264 to this day, or some "mimic" of it. This was 15+ years ago btw.
You only need like, maybe 100 Mbps. Most definitely less for normal conferences.
> Zoom/Google Meets - the attention Zoom gave to UX just wasn't matched by any other precursor. Google Meets is a close second.
Opinion based, and you're welcome to have it. But not sure what qualifies as any sort of good evidence or reason for companies moving to other countries for their labor force.
>GSuite/O365 - sharing documents across organizations and being able to search for them successfully org wide has gotten much better now due to tools like Glean
Again, you're welcome to your opinions. Sharing documents in organizations across cities, states, and countries has been pretty mainstay for 30+ years.
And if you want my honest opinion, the tooling has gotten worse.
> Slack - most traditional companies didn't adopt Slack until the pandemic. Before that they were primarily leveraging email
At this point I'm just having trouble understanding why you think these things are fundamentally game changers.
>and DevTooling throughout the 2010s
Like what?
Again, if that's the best examples you could come up with they're not really enough and even worse (in the cases of GSuite/365) they are counter to your point about tooling improvement.
And those experiments failed in the 2000s.
But in the 2020s with an extended pandemic lockdown over 2-3 years, async work was proven to succeed.
I am one of those decisionmakers and the pandemic effect did convince the last stragglers that offshoring by directly managing a subsidiary in Poland, India, Czechia, Israel, etc with ex-American leadership is good enough.
I warned about this during COVID on HN and was downvoted constantly.
Pretending that the 2000s-era experience can inform decisions we make in the 2020s is completely flawed.
Being in denial of the "brave new world" is only going to do you harm as an IC.
But some of these comments are just like from another planet. Like a comment I responded to saying "All the tools that existed for remote work had been there, largely in the same fashion and capability, for decades", and then when I responded with disbelief about how anyone could think that remote working tools have been static for decades I was chastised for not giving specific examples.
The level of cluelessness on display here is just baffling to me. There used to be tangible benefits for being located in the same city. If I'm just Zooming with my colleagues anyway, it makes zero difference if they are in the same city or thousands of miles away, as long as there is good timezones overlap.
Any examples, really.
>The level of cluelessness on display here is just baffling to me.
I encourage you to give this thread an honest, deep think about why you feel this way. It's certainly not lack of insight from the other side. The word accountability is relevant here.
All the comments here on this thread feel almost exactly like the same things I heard about Chinese manufacturing or Korean cars back in the 2000s.
At an individual level, it's difficult to make any changes, but at the very least one can start thinking of how to live in this new world.
Just having enough EQ as an Engineer to give an actual business justification about your initiatives or teams (NARR attach rate, developer velocity, actual tangible examples of generating pipeline) along with actually trying to train and mentor new grads and consistently upskilling would in most cases be enough to protect your job, but people here want to stick their head in the sand.
They're an insular and distinct class unto themselves usually, and there's very little movement (or and very different candidate pool) between devs and them.
> It has very little to do with their literal position on earth in relation to a company's real estate foot print.
Which is why they will happily pay for talented labor in other positions on earth.
Which to be clear: is not happening.
They're buying very low cost labor and are hoping to power through it for some sweet juicy numbers.
(Unless that’s not what you’re implying?)
The issue in the EU is local EU companies don't pay as well because they don't have to (little competition). And a culture of not paying high salaries but paying higher taxes.
15-20 years ago SWE work was brutal and paid OKish, but not great if you calculated the hourly.
Then the era of free VC money came, culminating in the pandemic boom, where people were crash coursing JavaScript to land a remote job doing 4 hours of work a week for $170k.
The pendulum is now swinging in the other direction.
With the dotcom boom and VC money, that changed. I doubled my salary going to a startup in 1998. I was not a better developer all of a sudden, it was just that startups had piles of money and investors demanding that they spend it.
15-20 years ago software development was still very well paid compared to 30 years ago. And then the really insane FAANG money started flowing.
That's not the whole story, though. The Internet inherently changed the value prop for software work, where a small number of engineers could support a huge number of users. That leverage makes software work inherently waaaay more profitable than it was pre-Internet, which is why companies could afford to throw gobs of money at top engineering talent.
I worked in software 15-20 years ago. The work was not "brutal". I worked hard, but mostly because I enjoyed the work. I lived in a major American city and my pay was essentially the highest pay you could get outside of professions requiring professional degrees like doctor or lawyer, or some high finance positions. And even then, I made more than some doctors in lower-tier specialties.
Additionally, companies can’t just hire individuals in other countries. They have to set up business entities and that costs significant money to do. It’s why they mostly work with outsourcing companies, who often do have offices where these people come in and work.
No one is talking about outsourcing to body shops like the old times a decade ago. I went from employing offshored devs and IT talent competing with low-effort body shops, to now competing directly with the largest names in the industry for those workers.
It is not hard at all to employ people “directly” in most countries. Plenty of global payroll services that will handle this for you at a small scale, and you just stand up a local “office” with a cheap office manager and attorney on retainer if you outgrow that. The legal entities and structure might be opaque, but the end result is effectively direct employee as far as anyone working with them is concerned.
Offshoring does not mean what it used to. These people are treated and expectations are the same as anyone employed from Iowa or California. The largest difference and source of friction is timezone.
Reliable internet is more or less ubiquitous in the entire world now in any even moderately sized city. It’s not 2005 any more. This is utterly a non-issue. And this was before Starlink. A $200/mo paycheck bonus usually covers this anywhere I’ve done business.
I’ve worked with hundreds of folks around the world at this point. The HN take on outsourcing is so ridiculous to me, and explains the hubris you see here regarding remote work.
> The largest difference and source of friction is timezone.
Completely agree with this, and that's why I've seen much less desire to outsource software work to India or China (like I did in the 2001-2012 timeframe) than I have to Latin America or Eastern Europe (or heck, even Western Europe where dev salaries are still much lower) for US-based companies.
High pay has been a mixed blessing for the tech field. For every aspiring top mathematician or physicist who’s been tempted by the pay and relevant new problems, I often feel like we’ve gotten 10x as many people who would otherwise have been uninspired doctors and lawyers or top business majors.
For a recent job opening I was looking to fill, HR sent us all of the applications rather than doing their own filtering (they did first round calls with people engineering highlighted).
The level of resume spam is absolutely staggering. So many applicants to jobs that have no obvious connection to their stated skills & experience, with job application questions filled out by LLMs. I’m not saying they’re all bad people, but all of these people who don’t know what they’re looking for other than an income is really disheartening.
If I can ask, what is it you think of work as? Most jobs are just that: a job, an economic transfer from employer to employee to perform specific tasks.
I hate to say it, but what do you think most Indians working for google, or facebook, or any of the other companies that open centers in India see their purpose there as?
70% Advancing the state of the art in my areas of expertise + 30% Enabling experts in other areas I care about to advance the state of the art by making all the problems related to my expertise just go away
I think <5% of labor falls under what you are speaking about.
It's not like they don't have money, it was an insurance company with $1bn in quarterly profit. Market is extremely unfavorable for IT talents currently.
I have been working from home to various degrees since 1997 or so and I go in more when I need more work to do and work from home more when I am super busy with coding stuff or similar that can be done better and faster from home.
But yeah going to office to sit in meetings with of people in other offices is silly.
Timezone matters
Here’s the thing though. People have been trying to outsource software development since the late 90s. Every time I’ve been around offshoring efforts wherever they were implemented, a few years later onshoring would happen again. It turns out time zones, thick Indian accents, and poor quality control have been and still are major obstacles to overcome.
I guess folks really did think that location had nothing to do with Silicon Valley paying 4x or more the worldwide average. That there was simply no talent anywhere in the world who could even compete at their level. No project managers anywhere who could do the job for less than $200k/yr.
One the dam broke and it was clear that remote work could be productive it simply opened up a rather insular industry to extreme worldwide competition. Far more smart and talented folks out there in the world than many anticipated.
The hubris was (and is) crazy to me.
The industry suffers from fads and cargo-culting. Stealth diffuse offshoring is currently in, it's going to take a while for the downsides to percolate: I suspect will mostly boil down to jurisdiction impedance mismatches. What does it mean for employers if it is 1000x harder to extradite an employee to Delaware (or whatever jurisdiction is agreed to in their employment contract) if they clone their product from code? Without e-Verify, what are the chances that your remote employee is a North Korean unit, or working for your competitor? Boom times ahead for corporate intelligence - as well as the traditional kind. How many security teams and policies are geared to face Iran as an adversary? An unstated e-Verify benefit is free FBI COINTEL
It was absolutely a self-own. People not understanding why they were being paid the salaries they were and how replaceable they might be.
It was more or less an entire workforce demanding that their job positions be opened up to global competition thinking there would be no negative long term outcomes from it. They effectively helped offshore their own jobs.
This is just starting - inertia is a thing, and it takes years to stand up competent local engineering teams in various countries. The past few years has simply been laying down the base infrastructure for what is starting to visibly happen today.
It wasn't some digital nomad work in my jammies lifestyle thing. It gets tiresome to hear: "see it's all your fault"
One of my friends from school has long worked in robotics. He showed me a machine he programmed to cut glass or something at a Volvo factory. I asked him about outsourcing back then. He told me his job required being physical plant to assess, program, and monitor it. He was going to stick with that over the higher-paying alternatives that he believed would be outsourced or automated more easily. Today, outsourcing only threatens work opportunities for one of us.
The era of American developer exceptionalism is over.
Talent abroad has access to the same tools, education, and increasingly, network. American engineers will be replaced wholesale with overseas engineers that cost a fraction of American labor.
You can hire talented React engineers for $50k that will work harder than their American counterparts.
It's not just React. Overseas markets have DevOps, SREs, embedded, systems engineers, you name it.
For years Americans joked that overseas labor was subpar. It's not, or at least it isn't in today's world.
What's the logic here other than "coders are the top tier of the labor market" arrogance?
Indeed, however other business roles have a significant physical presence or face to face component. Sales & marketing, legal, HR, and significant parts of operations and admin have physical presence requirements in most businesses. I would expect finance/accounting to be vulnerable to offshoring, though.
If all the high earners are off shore, may as well sell to them with an off shore sales team.
Don't need local marketers if the market isn't local anymore.
I forget that HN forgets that many companies don't sell software yet have SWE teams.
Mid west engineering teams are low six figure or even less. The cost savings from outsourcing a team of people earning 90k is meh compared to a team earning 300k.
Of course, you can't just work on CRUD apps or mobile apps, you have to build up domain knowledge of the business.
Aren't there certifications and stuff? I'd think that from a regulatory and legal compliance perspective it'd be better to have Americans handling the books. Say someone turns out to be cooking the books, if that person is halfway across the world good luck prosecuting them (unless your company is wealthy enough to the point where you can mobilize law enforcement to do your bidding)
Correction - "The US / Canada software" engineering.
Otherwise people from many other countries are just as good while charging way less.
So yeah it’s not surprising that jobs are going offshore.
3,00,00,000 instead of 30,000,000
Older than western civilization probably, but does take some getting used too.
Everything I look into as far as 2nd career goes has a very high barrier to entry and then there's the ever-present ageism barrier to fight, too.
I'm fortunate in that I have enough money to maybe just be retired, but most of you aren't anywhere close to being that financially independent. It's going to be ugly.
I knew for years that the offshoring blitz would finally reach critical mass and I was correct. Now it is an economic conflagration.
So the stakes are drastically higher for 18 year olds picking their college majors. It's effectively a life commitment for a specific career path, and there's a lot of anxiety among students because they don't know if the career path they're betting the farm on will still be be viable by the time they graduate. There's also a sense that if you can't manage to find work in the field you majored in within a year or two of graduating, you've fallen off the track and are condemned to DoorDashing forever.
I'm always amazed at how many older people I know (especially 60+) spent their twenties directionless and then started a decent paying career in their 30s, often by simply learning how to do something and getting a job doing it. I'm not sure what policy platform would make that possible again, but accomplishing it would alleviate a ton of the anxiety that young people have today.
It's worse than that. Who is going to pay the doctors and lawyers (and other folks providing services) if there are no more US jobs that product stuff for export.
And it's not even about services. Who is going to pay the home builders, electricians, plumbers, etc in a world where there is no money flowing into the US economy from the outside
Jobs that have a high 0-1 component will still be in the US but jobs that are more 1-n may be offshored.
The U.S. also has the largest useful single market in the world (the EU is broken up across many languages/cultures, China is isolated so you can’t really expand out).
The U.S. is actively working to destroy several of those planks right now.
Even the capital plank, which superficially looks strong, is being hurt by the government picking winners and choosers. If the current govt bets don’t turn out to be the right ones we’re looking at an ugly, probably tax payer funded (OpenAI has already hinted at this) collapse.
It used to be (since at least mid last century) and 0-1 and 1-n jobs were focused here. The world becoming smaller allowed a lot of 1-n jobs to move abroad. But we kept 0-1 jobs here.
That used to be the situation when the country brought people from around the world to be educated and then start business here. And historical precedent allowed us to continue thise advantages by having a reputation for it and continuing to support it. Our country for some reason now has decided it no longer wants to take the actions that fill the pipeline for 0-1 innovation.
And the world just like it took over 1-n is going to take over 0-1.
Why you would choose catalyze that change as an American, I have no idea.
I think there are people that generally believe that there is magic dust that says it can only happen on US soil instead of there being structural actions taken to enable it.
We will all very quickly learn that 0-1 can be anywhere that 1-n is.
Are you measuring by where the work is done, or where the people signing their names on it live? Two different things.
Capital
And developer costs had gotten so crazy, this was the perfect storm.
That's a pain management are willing to inflict upon /you/
CTOs are aware of all the tradeoffs
One thing also contradicting the "AI can do it" argument, is that a business's playbook is to rather expand the work force in order to multiply the effect of technology. Yet they lay off in waves.
There is no dissonance, just a disguise: Several big tech companies in the US cut their workforce, in the US, while expanding it in countries where talent is cheaper.
Paradoxally, junior folks have it even worse. It has become very difficult to land a job without experience, again, in the US. It all makes sense, if you replace US based senior staff with Junior staff on different time zone, and having a different culture, you are left with nobody to mentor and supervise junior so staff.
I still can't explain how ending up with more Junior staff, offshore, less senior staff and little to no Junior staff locally will pay off in the long term.
I guess I will figure that out, but for now that's one piece of the puzzle I can only call an "economic downturn" outlook.
Salaries for tech are 2x what they should be just due to housing costs.
Seattle used to be where bay area companies relocated teams to because the cost of living here and salary expectations where 2/3rds the bay area, but that ship long since sailed.
Asinine short sighted city councils will be the death of all our jobs and also the death of the only remaining industry that America is competitive in on a large scale.
High salaries that exist just to pay for high house prices hurt everyone.
If 20k people move to a city each year and the city only approves 10k new buildings, the city is sabotaging its own growth.
Saying "we don't want growth!" doesn't work. Prices shoot up, wages increase, cost of living goes up, the price of everything goes up, eventually it becomes unsustainable and the entire economy crashes.
If 20k people want to move to a city, built 25k housing units. Keep it simple.
Expedite permits, hire more inspectors, simplify building codes, do whatever is needed to ensure people have a place to live.
https://bloomberry.com/blog/amazons-layoffs-tell-half-the-st...
Doesn’t it affect big tech companies? Only startups?
I would guess the opposite, with big companies being much more savvy and influenced by fiscal incentives.
Public press paints picture of the firm laying off due to adoption of AI. Yet, I can assure you without doubt its not because of it but due to continued offshore.
I think we are at the brink of opening another large campus in India, not sure which city. Oh another thing is these full time position in NA were eliminated and replaced with employees from TCS.
My own boss is against it but its coming from higher ups. I have no idea what's driving them. We made billion in net revenues last year and we are actually part of the org that is in 'cash cow' category - upper management literally said this too in our town halls
https://www.futuriom.com/articles/news/why-we-dont-believe-m...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/white-collar-layoffs-ai-cost...
Oh I totally agree with you, this was just the first thing that came up in a Google search. The criticism of MIT’s study has been going around widely, this site isn’t the only one saying that this study lacks objective metrics.
And this isn't about AI (well, not primarily anyway). It's offshoring, offshoring, offshoring.
IMO, what's taking place now is absolutely transformative and the world economy is in the process of being reshaped. It's not just tech jobs that are being offshored - we're just one of the first/early movers. Many other professional/white-collar jobs (accounting, etc.) are also getting offshored at an accelerating rate. And it's happening all over the western world - it's happening in the US, it's happening in Australia, Canada, the UK, etc.
And unlike previous periods of mass offshoring, I don't think the jobs are ever coming back.
These new tech companies/existing companies were not here for the first wave of offshoring engineers many years ago. basically, the product/service degraded and they brought the product/service back onshore.
It's a cycle that will repeat. Product degrades, there will be public outrage, then they will onshore the product to fix the problems caused from offshoring.
For one, many of these companies are now used to their tech teams being remote. The tools, culture, infra, etc. over the last ~5 years has all become remote which lessens the shock of going fully offshore.
Two, many tech teams in the western world are already partially offshored and have been for some time now. I know where I worked, a reasonable % of the team was already offshore in low COL countries (India, etc.). What's happening now is just the expansion of that cost saving after initial testing of the waters was successful.
Three, the quality gap between offshore teams and their western counterparts is now much smaller, and AI will be used to lessen the gap even further (along with just throwing more bodies at each problem which you can do when your salaries are 1/3rd of what they are here).
Four, many products/services now have captured markets with strong network effects, which means they can weather a heavy degradation of services with little to no loss of customers. It's called enshittification, and businesses are doing it now because they absolutely know they can, and get away with it.
I guess you’d expect some staff turnover, but not mass layoffs.
Students getting lazy, or dropping out of subjects entirely because they don't think they have a future in them.
Depression and a general feeling of despair. I see this in programming communities quite a bit - people who see LLMs as an existential threat to their careers and that they have wasted their lives getting good at something which is now being devalued.
"ChatGPT psychosis" - where people talk to LLMs and have unhealthy thought patterns reinforced by them to disastrous ends - gets a ton of coverage. But what about these milder but still meaningful effects where the very existence of AI disrupts people's future plans and self-worth even if they're not using it at all?
When we’re all brain rotted and unemployed, how will we spend money on corporations? Its a spiral.
> I went through this Ford engine plant about three years ago, when they first opened it.
> There are acres and acres of machines, and here and there you will find a worker standing at a master switchboard, just watching, green and yellow lights blinking off and on, which tell the worker what is happening in the machine.
> One of the management people, with a slightly gleeful tone in his voice said to me, “How are you going to collect union dues from all these machines?”
> And I replied, “You know, that is not what’s bothering me. I’m troubled by the problem of how to sell automobiles to these machines
- Walter Reuther, Nov. 1956
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/conversations-with-tyl...
It was a bit towards the end, I think.
If others are slacking, it's an opportunity to level up and stand out. Also, IMO there are market forces currently reshaping the jobs landscape, it's not only AI, I don't even think AI is the main driver.
I use mobile services timeboxed and in conjunction with blockers for certain services. I also went back to use old-school pencils and paper for work whenever possible. It is helpful - and fun.
Blocking mobile internet on smartphones improves sustained attention, mental health, and subjective well-being: https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/4/2/pgaf017/80160...
Brain Drain: The Mere Presence of One’s Own Smartphone Reduces Available Cognitive Capacity: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/691462
> Surely this would be indicated by a glut of unfilled job postings.
I posted a link about Ghost jobs. Then, you said:
>[...]it is a job posting an employer has no intention of filling to begin with.
GP' comment speaks to recent graduates feeling less engaged. Whether it's because they fail to meet the requirements, or the requirements are literally fake doesn't matter. AI isn't used simply to cheat on coursework, but also to erect a de facto glass ceiling viz fake jobs with fake requirements, engagement suffers.
Obviously layoffs correlate with AI age, but it's most definitely not AI replacing jobs, not yet. Even in 2025 stories about a job fully taken by AI need to be scraped for, and it's almost always about non-SWE jobs. And in 2023, when the first layoffs already started, models sucked and none of the existing tools and agents even existed yet! But if you search for example for headcount growth in India/Mexico, the numbers can only be described as "booming".
I don't know what exactly is going on, but it's pretty obvious the companies are moving offshore or simply doing less work, and for some reason need to lie about why.
Opening in a private window solved the issue, however I'm pretty sure I don't regularly read anything on this site (maybe never was an overstatement?).
Not a single mention of jobs being moved to India including tens of billions of investments in new offices.
Backing links from a quick search earlier this week when an obviously Indian HNer tried to deny this was really happening:
Microsoft announces US $3bn investment over two years in India https://news.microsoft.com/en-in/microsoft-announces-us-3bn-... (Jan 2025)
Google announces $15B investment in AI hub in India https://apnews.com/article/google-artificial-intelligence-vi... (3 weeks ago)
[Indian] ex-Accenture CTO named Google Cloud’s Chief Product https://www.hindustantimes.com/trending/us/who-is-karthik-na... (last week) (a lot of people speculate they named an Indian Accenture guy to move as much as possible to India)
Big Tech giants defy US-India trade tensions, record strongest 12-month headcount growth in India in 3 years https://www.moneycontrol.com/technology/big-tech-giants-defy... (September)
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/openai-launch-first-indi...
https://www.anthropic.com/news/expanding-global-operations-t...
and so on. Something very crazy is going on.
NOTE: I am not American and this doesn't affect me directly.
It has so become huge there, that is getting to similar size as the traditional call centre industry, hundreds of thousand of people work on curating data for model training.
Google hiring a senior lead who can scale low skill business processing massively is just inline with that.
Any compute investment is largely local . Internet and Electricity is expensive and erratic, there is red tape, loads of import duties, there are dozens of cheaper places for cheap data centers.
All this to say it is not the kind of outsourcing you think it is.
—-
There is a some amount of high tech outsourcing happening, those are driven by challenges in getting even a business visa in last 5 years.
those numbers are quite small in aggregate won’t be news worthy.
India simply does not have that kind of high quality talent pool .
The education system is both expensive and very poor. There is shortage of qualified teachers, even bigger shortage of good ones. Students and parents just want to get a “degree” /maximize scores to get a job, There is little interest to learn.
Given that this is presumably all data used for RLHF'ing, I wonder how much of this is responsible for things like LLM "sycophancy" or the issue of "hallucinations". What if the reward-hacking entity isn't the LLM/optimizer but the human annotator in the loop.
Seems to be more and more common these days in general :-/
Then why are they giving one year of free accounts for developers to the whole country? Remember they have about one million CS graduates every year. Do you see the scale of costs?
Same goes for the OpenAI and Anthropic office announcements posted by the GP, these are sales offices with very little tech employment or outsourcing happening.
Re “investments”: these are also not what you think. I remember when Amazon was partnering up with schools in the US to provide “machine learning education” where said education was thinly veiled ads for managed ML services like Sagemaker and Rekognition. I wouldn’t be surprised if the $3B investment from Microsoft was primarily free courses and certifications to cultivate a market, as well some annotation work (I know that Amazon has been hiring quite a few people to do this kind of work).
The low cost editions are significantly poor quality prints, smaller fonts crappy ligatures, margins line heights- all to squeeze it into less pages, poorer paper, monochrome, laxer quality control -it is not uncommon for few pages to have minor defects .
I appreciate the effort to make something available for that cheap, but they are bad.
It is like business class and economy on a flight. You both go to same destination at the same time sure but the journey is widely different, if you don’t care about the journey it is waste of money yes, but it cannot be denied there is a reason why it is expensive.
In this analogy hard bound would be first class . Mostly unavailable and truly a luxury.
The thesis here is that current gen tools should enable 2 people do the work of 10 and LLM models get paid the budget of 2-3 devs.
The outsourcing org comes out ahead with spending only 70% as before (salary of remaining devs will naturally increase)
——
India is by far the largest market for this. 1yr free is for same reason any VC funded company discounts their product or gives it free first, or Microsoft famously rather have you use their software pirated than not at all.
This is only to get adoption, if your workers only know how to code with Claude or Codex then you are going to buy those tools as a company
Nobody is going back once you get them to change. OpenAI et al hope to capture 30% value of the IT outsourcing sector while making to cheaper by 30%. There is no free lunch.
——
The number of CS “grads” are not a useful metric for India.
The industry shifted to hiring other engineering streams to any grads with aptitude to learn a long while back.
The vast majority of them don’t have any programming skills, don’t have critical thinking skills, are poor at communication.
They are unemployable. Don’t take it from me, NASSCOM says this too.
The degrees are largely from mills that charge up to $80k-$100k (med degrees go even higher) promising jobs but don’t teach much.
Not that I believe Trump actually cares about US jobs, let alone thinks strategically about the importance of a strong software sector, but you might expect him to at least do another mafia-style shakedown of the companies outsourcing jobs. Heck, you might think he'd even care about all the lost tax revenue, by having developer salaries going to India rather than staying here.
They might use it for the next elections, all the white collar jobs are going out of US, they will bring it back if you elect them again.
Having dealt with A LOT of Accenture “devs”, how do I leverage the barn and then some to short Google!
I just don't understand this need to rush, software already moves fast without AI tools. Software developers already make a lot of money for their companies that their salaries are easily covered. Realistically people could develop software 10x slower than now and the world would still keep progressing.
So either their business is a dead end, the inefficiency is at the management layer, or AI isn’t actually making workers more efficient.
Its why I'm not the biggest believer in "Jevon's Paradox" when it comes to software. Most software projects scale and as such they aren't really cost constrained. Or another way of stating this is "if the idea is good and can make lots of money the cost of dev's isn't a limiting factor" - hence why AI doesn't necessarily increase demand all that much. This is unlike say physical industries where cost can absolutely matter especially if the good is constrained already by affordability.
I think most SWE's know this - they see it with outsourcing as well where cheaper costs don't necessarily mean more software is done; but there is some "hope" that things will be OK.
I'd bet on all three being generally true.
Instead we're still talking about cost cutting. Seems the market is not focused on investing outside the AI moonshot gamble.
> Those expenditures may be approaching $1 trillion for 2025, while AI revenue—which would be used to pay for the use of AI infrastructure to run the software—will not exceed $30 billion this year
While it's clear that the author is summing up the spending from the big players, it's not clear to me that their math is right for revenue. Yes, OpenAI, Anthropic, Thinking Machines, SSI, etc. have pretty limited direct revenue (including zero!).
But this comparison assumes no revenue growth for other top computing users. Some companies are certainly saving money on some tasks and increasing revenue, particularly in fields like customer support. See the confusing figure in section 5 of https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report/econo... .
That chart is by number of respondents and not weighted by revenue. Like the MIT study, it would not be surprising that "just pipe this to an LLM" isn't enough for most fields or companies. But a few have likely made material improvements.
10% of respondents saying they've seen a >10% revenue gain could be substantial, if they're bigger firms with high leverage in computing.
Edit to add: the comparison also makes a classic "GDP vs market cap" style mistake. Capital expenditure has multiple years of useful life. Revenue is annual. You'd want to compare depreciation vs revenue.
The other factor is, will revenues really stay the same for companies once we have AGI / super intelligence? It seems value will not accrue to the companies that are in chill mode.
And investment and experiments by definition include the risk of failing. In almost everything lies a survivorship bias and no one talks about the 100+ car makers that went into goldrush mode 100+ years ago. This is life. Netflix vs Blockbuster - already forgotten?
Also the "fail rate" - so what part is failing and why? What's with the 5%? If we have a look at exponential functions this might be a really good deal, if the 5% can account for the losses. After all, benefits compound over time.
I witnessed first hand in FAANG some quota hires and I believe that now that no one gets paid for contrived and artificial business advantages, we are back to a more merits based evaluation of workers.
But AI should not be written off as fancy something with no impact. That's the wrong take. Whether it will be a springboard to new jobs that compensate for losses or replacements - I am not yet sure, but tent to be in the former group. ML engineers take care of ML - something new that takes care of something new.
We will see.
AMZN for example overhired in various functions because it expected demand that never materialised. Admitting that is bad for the share price, but writing some woo about "AI and agility" will convince at least some investors to keep the faith.
Likewise many tasks I used to do with Java, .NET, Node.js, have been replaced by low code/no code tools with agentic orchestration.
Thinking that AI isn't replacing jobs is wishful thinking.
Many places of the globe the option is between mundane jobs or none at all.
If you've been outsourced, ask your representative to support the HIRE Act: - Creates a 25% tax on outsourcing payments - Creates a “Domestic Workforce Fund” for apprenticeships/workforce development. - Prohibits companies from deducting outsourcing payments.
Over the last 20 years of tech, the giants have taken the smartest folks out there and put golden handcuffs on them. You could hire up all the smart folks and put them to work, or leave them out there and have them compete with you. With the launch of cloud providers and (expensive) dynamic scaling the problem only got worse. Think about hiring in the pandemic. Every one at home, with a stimulus check and nothing to do. Rather than a flurry of new software you got mass hiring.
But now we are in a capital intensive hardware cycle. Where in order to compete you need to have lots of $$$$ as well as software know how. It does not matter that there are smart people out there, without hefty backing they wont get very far.
I suspect that software is about to enter its "punk" era. We have software for small businesses that will help with accounting, HR, customer service, and cloud providers are starting to see some interesting competition. Much like the old punk poster showing you 3 chords and telling you to start a band it is entirely possible to find three friends and start a business that makes 1-10 mill a year with little effort and lower costs. The moment you stop thinking "unicorn" and start thinking "sustainable" the economics shift radically.
340 millon Americans. Reach 10k of them at 10 bucks a month and you have a business that pays for a couple people to live comfortably.
I don't think that ChatGPT coding is valuable but rather it's ability to tutor people and guide them towards idiomatic patterns.
That being said, I think we as a society are quickly reaching the point where there just doesn't exist enough jobs to keep everyone gainfully employed. There may be new jobs opening up but not ones that people in the middle or ends of their careers can quickly pick up on. I don't think this is a bad thing necessarily, just that when combined with the shitty safety net that the US has, it's a recipe for disaster. If even folks who are working full-time still need assistance for groceries, then we've already failed, and that's not even AIs fault.
I left IT for the time being, but I ask copilot.microsoft.com a question once in a while to see if we've got to AGI yet.
Today's question (I admit not so creative) was what's the market cap of TSLA.
Its answer was "Tesla Inc. (TSLA) currently has a market capitalization of approximately $429.52 billion USD. This figure is based on the latest trading price of $429.52 per share"
It allegedly used a web search to find this out, and it included a screenshot showing the market cap as $1.4B.
On the other hand, chatgpt.com prudently tells me to go look it up myself, because it doesn't have live data.
I guess OpenAI is winning?
But for code generation, Claude is awesome. ChatGPT is OK too but I've had much better results with Claude. Weird things happen if a new version it a library came out with breaking changes though. You'll have to write rules or ensure that the new apis are in context.
But that's kinda my point. It's not good enough to replace a human, but it is good enough to make a human more efficient.
1. How will tangible assets generate profit net of near term capex requirements and interest on debt?
2. Why wouldn't payroll shrink as a result of the increased AI capabilities emerging from the capex spend?
3. If AI lives up to the hype & given recent news that public backstops are being requested, why shouldn't the US quasi-nationalize cash strapped players and distribute equity to every American?
4. As NVDA and AAPL local models and local compute eat into utility and base automation business, how do edge players maintain profitability without pricing capabilities well beyond the affordability of SMBs and individuals?
Given all those articles with AI generated images I bet that some artists lost their jobs
This year alone something like 400B was spent on investing in chips, datacenters, electricity buildouts. That's 400B that could have otherwise been invested in people.
While i don't doubt that people will find a few solid business cases for LLMs, i am on team-bubble. I don't think this investment will add 400B worth of value and I very much doubt that this 400B is any good for future growth or long-term aspirations of AGI. Investing 400B into people and (tech) manufacturing would be a solid long-term bet with benefits.
Nobody said they don't, but these are very few highly payed jobs dwarfed by the number of lost jobs due to capital misallocation. That's the point of the OP which for some reason got lost in discussions of unrelated issues like outsourcing.
Besides, a lot of the AI investments go to Taiwan and other Asian countries where all of the AI hardware is made which makes non-AI hardware more expensive too - a huge cost on the economy. The recent Taiwanese factories in the US don't change that.
I'm not saying that LLMs and the current AIs aren't useful, but they aren't worth even close to $400B. Some of the progress, especially in the medical field, is amazing, but the spending is completely out of proportion with the gains. It only works because right now people like Sam Altman has sold people with money on the idea and now they have to continue to peddle their sneak oil, hoping that the money won't dry up.
What most people aspiring for a white collar career probably want is a job in IT - managing technology for business is much more stable than developing novel tech.
If the thought of needing to move or lose a job strikes you as horrible, this is not a likely career path for you.
The creation of the first digital computer is still within living memory. The state of the software industry and its maturity is doing ok given its youth.
> made-up program like computer science
Sounds like you have a personal axe to grind. It’s ok lots of people have undergrad EE degrees.
On a side note this is why I find proponents that state people with agency will thrive in the AI world puzzling -> isn't the whole point of "agentic AI" to have "agency"?
With no advantage left (e.g. strength, intelligence, agency, etc) even if new industries come about why not use the AI for those too? Unlike previous industries where new domains needed more "brains" to drive/direct it, we have AI now. AI isn't a tool; it can for example deploy and can make decisions for itself. That's what the obsession with "agentic" is all about - replacing agency which at the moment was the very general domain that you still needed humans for.
This strongly favors the economic means of production remaining that are still scarce (capitalism rewards the scarce, not the efficient). Land, capital, social connections/nepotism, etc. Logically people without these will be less economically and socially valued in general - I hope I'm wrong. The current productive class have the most to lose from AI.
AI IMO breaks meritocracy and skilled based work long term assuming they succeed. Even if not in the next decade, and not the current crop of companies pushing it I'm sure AI will eventually cause this outcome.
The spending-revenue gap is real. Hyperscalers are projected to spend $300-550B on AI infrastructure in 2025[1] while generative AI revenue won't exceed $30-40B [2]. Amazon's capex jumped from $48B in 2023 to $84B in 2024 to a projected $100B+ in 2025[3], that's capital intensity doubling from historical norms of 11-16% to over 22% [4].
But here's what the article misses: this isn't financial desperation. When Amazon's CEO announces 14,000 layoffs and explicitly states that AI will enable "fewer people doing some jobs"[5], he's revealing the strategic logic — show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome. Companies aren't cutting jobs despite AI spending; they're cutting jobs because they know AI spending will pay off.
To be clear, the article treats the spending-revenue gap as evidence of irrationality. But infrastructure buildouts always precede revenue: railroads looked insane before they transformed commerce, electricity grids consumed massive capital before delivering returns, the internet required enormous infrastructure investment before creating trillion-dollar companies.
What's different now is companies are pulling the future forward. If we take this article at face value which I can appreciate is a BIG “if” then AI is already automating 25% of tasks and delivering 10-55% productivity gains[6] so they're not waiting for AI to replace jobs organically. They're cutting headcount now to fund the infrastructure that will make those cuts permanent.
More broadly, this is rational capital reallocation in a winner-take-all race. Companies that don't build AI infrastructure won't gradually decline, they'll lose competitive positioning entirely. That's why Meta is using off-balance-sheet financing for a $27B data center[7], why Oracle is borrowing $25B annually despite already carrying 450% debt-to-equity [8]. They're all-in because the alternative is obsolescence.
The real story isn't "spending causes cuts" it's that AI infrastructure commoditizes human expertise, the complement to compute infrastructure. Companies are trading labor costs for compute infrastructure because they've correctly identified compute as the new moat. The job cuts aren't the price of spending on AI; they're the business model shift that AI enables.
The article is right that we're not seeing mass AI job replacement yet. But the job cuts are happening in anticipation of replacement, not as an unfortunate side effect of spending. That's not desperation just business strategy.
-- 1.(Morgan Stanley: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/morgan-stanley-hy...) 2. (Grand View Research: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/generati...) 3. (CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/amazon-expects-to-spend-100-...) 4. (Cerno Capital: https://cernocapital.com/accounting-for-ai-financial-account...) 5. (CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/amazon-layoffs-corporate-wor...) 6. (PwC: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/artificial-intelligence/ai-...) 7. (Fortune: https://fortune.com/2025/10/31/metas-27-billion-bet-turns-ai...) 8. (The Register: https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/29/oracle_ai_debt/)
They think they know.
right now I see even old GPUs like V100 are still popular. Maybe the old GPUs will shift to the countries with cheap electricity?
Assuming that GPUs power efficiency will increase, the same will be true about them.
IMO the most likely way to soak up the extra capacity is actually yet another iteration of AI rather than say, doing productive but boring work with any other techniques for curing disease or something. Still, a crash and a next iteration might be more likely to involve fresh ideas on architecture, or focus on smaller expert models that have less fake results and actually empower users. Right now I think there's a clear bias in research and execution. OFANG does want results, but also wants results that tech giants. Are subsymbolic techniques really the best techniques, or are they just the best at preserving the moat of big-data and big-compute?
Even if generative AI lives up to its hype, with current US administration there's no way America is going to lead the race for long. There's just not enough energy available, when those in power oppose developing many of the energy projects that make most economical sense.
Because in any country with poor worker protections, the outcome is layoffs regardless.
AI succeeds? Layoffs of unneeded roles.
AI fails? Layoffs to cut expenditure to make up for the written-off expenditure.
In the UK, if AI makes a well-established employee redundant, the employee is entitled to redundancy pay. And if the company fucks up and overspends on chasing a ridiculous Macguffin they can't just fire people without making them formally redundant.
The damage that is going to be done in the USA if the AI bubble bursts is going to be generational.
They are however pretty well trained in getting people to quit by making their job/life hell, avoiding all redundancy processes and cost
But I guess if they want another tool to help make the workplace depressing, hellish, absurd and kafkaesque, congratulations everybody Microsoft just built it into Windows and Office365 and everything else.
I wonder if that's true; I'm not in the US myself so I can't exactly just go have a drink in a place with lots of devs to try to find out.
The reasons are somewhat obvious:
* World economy in general and the US in particular is a rollercoaster, with the current administration being apparently dead set on flip flopping on every decision it makes, and always making extreme decisions. That's not a good time to invest. Hiring juniors is investing.
* AI not necessarily replacing the jobs, but that's not actually relevant: AI has already torpedoed the general notion that 'if you have investor money you gotta spend just hire a bunch of folks; # of employees is the primary yardstick to check company size / success', whether AI works or not. If the boss tells a VP to 'use more AI to get a handle on hiring practices', then they're going to stop hiring juniors because it looks like you're outright refusing a direct order if you hire a bunch. Even if AI 'employees' are useless, you are strongly incentivized not to hire juniors in such an environment. Juniors both lost the job opportunities stemming from companies just hiring folks because they have enough cash to do it and no good idea on where to spend it, and the downside of looking like you aren't on the AI hypetrain, if you hire juniors.
* There's evidently been a rather massive push in particular during the previous administration to get folks from dead end jobs into IT, so there's now an overwhelming amount of junior devs, and many of them didn't naturally get drawn to the profession; they were told it's an easy way to get a steady job.
* Even though there's some downturn/uncertainty, seniors/mediors aren't being fired because companies still remember how expensive and difficult it was to (re)hire dev teams post COVID. But that just makes the market for juniors even worse and makes it harder to hold out hope. When everybody is getting fired, then once the economy is in better shape you stand a good chance. But that's not happening; those mediors and seniors are continuing to get job experience whilst the juniors aren't.
Those 4 combined: Sure, yeah, I can imagine your average junior dev's odds to get hired are at this point well into the single digits. But is that actually true?
By the time the AI bubble bursts, those that have investments in those companies would have already exited.
Then in 10 years time, they will look back at how they scammed the back off of the layoffs with AI driving the entire problem.
I literally just said that on Reddit:
"They [big companies] were already laying off lots of people and hoarding around 100 billion in cash. This has nothing to do with AI. The elites have been at that for some time for who knows what reason. If anything, they didn't start spending money until the AI boom.
You could say AI is destroying jobs for a different reason. The leaders of the companies believe in gold rushes more than a steady stream of investments into forming and growing actual businesses. They didn't or don't believe America is worth investing in. They're simply about extraction."
OTOH, if it is only dreams of AI, manifested as AI spending, or CEOs laying people off thinking that AI will soon (even if not today) be capable of backfilling them, then this may well backfire, and will be "reversed" if demand is less than forecasted and/or job-replacing AGI doesn't materialize, and all we get is productivity tools, useful mostly for a narrow band of jobs.
Incidentally, I think Karpathy might be right that there is pretty much only one job that seems it actually could be replaced by AI today, at least potentially, which is call center tech support, or customer support, staff, who are dealing with a narrow domain and just reading off a script.
Are the numbers really that bad?
Google has been claiming that their cost per AI search query has dropped by over an order of magnitude.[1] They're presumably reaping the gains of not cranking up a really smart model on dumb questions.
[1] https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/08/google-says-it-dropped-th...