61 pointsby jb199119 hours ago2 comments
  • ChrisArchitect18 hours ago
    • tomhow6 hours ago
      Comments moved thither. Thanks!
  • guywithahat18 hours ago
    Previous similar posts https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45813734 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45815852

    That said I'm not convinced with these famous investors. I worry the big short kind of broke his brain, he's obsessed with these landfall cases now and I'm not sure they're really going to pan out. His last big one was water and I can't imagine he's doing much better than just farmers renting the land he owns.

    • mamonster18 hours ago
      Eisman, Burry and Paulson all got their brain broken by that.

      With Burry I think the redeeming part is that he is mostly, AFAIK, running his own capital since that time so there's no point criticizing him for his weird picks.

      Paulson spent the last decade burning investor capital using the reputation, good for him I guess.

      Eisman didn't do so well the last decade either, but at least his Youtube / podcast is light years ahead of the garbage that rich VCs are doing in terms of education.

    • furyg318 hours ago
      I definitely think that he thinks he's smarter than the market and sees bubbles everywhere, and I also definitely think that there's a gigantic AI bubble, or at least extreme 'frothiness' with all this circular investing to prop stock prices up.

      Actually turning a bubble into money is another question entirely, however, especially since he himself popularized shouting the emperor has no clothes at every turn. When the market will believe someone is a different story.

      • Zigurd18 hours ago
        Even with obviously ridiculous valuations, being a short means thinking you're smarter than the market, and you can time it, and you are smarter enough that a structurally disadvantaged investment is a good idea.
        • emil-lp18 hours ago
          Smarter has nothing to do with it, see e.g. tragedy of the commons.