Show HN: DeepShot – NBA game predictor with 70% accuracy using ML and stats(github.com)

3 pointsby frasacco054 days ago2 comments

kianN4 days ago
Haven’t dug the repo too much yet but looks like a super cool project. I’ have a few questions:
1. To what does 71% accuracy refers? I assume picking which team will win in any given matchup?
2. How does 70% compare to say, picking the team with the better record to win, or some simple time weighted rolling average of SRS record (metric that factors in opponent difficulty)? Because a solid percentage of games are between teams of extremely different talent levels, especially as tanking becomes more prominent later in the season.
- frasacco054 days ago
  The 71% accuracy refers to the fact that, given 2 teams, 71% of the time the team with the most percentage really won. For example tonight there was MIL vs GSW and it guessed correctly at 71% probability that MIL would have won and it happened. Or yesterday for example, where it guessed that DET won when the odds says a completly different stories. I see that in 60 / 40 matchups in terms of win probability it des a pretty good job because 60 / 40 is not a clear win and it really has guessed right since now in those type of games. When it comes to compare it to other methods, it's not that much better BUT, if combined with trend analysis, record, streak and overall player momentum you can have a boost in your predictions (not meant for betting btw, even if I'm testing it and I'm 15$ dollars starting with 10$ at the the start of the season)
  - kianN4 days ago
    Awesome thank you for the info!
hl_maker4 days ago
Planning to build an UI around it ?
- frasacco054 days ago
  I already builded a UI around it. I show it in the README of the repo :)