And wine/proton will integrate with this or some similar solution for running x86 binaries.
That file is just testing I believe.
I cannot way for the first AAA games to run on ultra-performant RISC-V(RV23+) microarchitectures made with the state-of-the-art silicon process.
Even if not at the consumer level, having your data center, for example, running a cheaper (I assume since no license for the instruction set means not having to pay for it and more options to buy from leading to lower prices) and less power demanding option when compared to x86-64 sounds enticing to me.
Maybe no one wants to be the genea pig to iron out the kinks of the transition or maybe the raw performance of x86 is bigger deal than I think it is and its worth the price and power. Dunno.
It's very simple!
Because the amount of time it takes to design and produce a data centre level CPU microarchitecture is greater than the time RISC-V extensions needed for data centre CPUs have existed.
The original RISC-V specification was ratified less than six years ago, but you really couldn't create a data centre CPU until at least RVA22, ratified two years ago in March 2023 -- or preferably RVA23 which was ratified in October 2024 and has the features needed for efficient hypervisors.
You can knock out a microcontroller CPU core in a weekend, but something to compete with current Apple, AMD, Amazon etc CPUs takes a long time to make. Most companies doing that started work only in 2021 or 2022.
It is simply too soon. A lot of stuff is in the pipeline.
In contrast, Qualcomm, just one of many large suppliers of ARM-based systems, had a total revenue of ~39 G$ and a operating income of ~10 G$. ARM's entire revenue would easily fit into Qualcomm's profit and only increase costs by ~12%. And that is just one supplier. You have Samsung, Apple, Broadcom, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, TI, NXP, etc. to help round that out.
The total impact of ARM licensing and IP costs is almost certainly less than 1%. And given that RISC-V does not currently have a fully mature ecosystem, you get to trade that for a 1% cost improvement; not really a winning strategy right now.
It is likely the main advantage in the long run for RISC-V is that not requiring a license might enable a more vibrant ecosystem due to removing the licensing barrier which might enable better designs at comparable costs (because, again, the cost differential should only be on the order of 1% in the long run) rather than just creating comparable designs that just chip off the licensing cost. That or RISC-V could win because the giant manufacturers feel like putting the squeeze on ARM to drive 1% off their BoM.
[1] https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/how-arm-became-the-worlds-d...
Oh! In fact it seems your figures are incorrect -- 2023 was $2.68B, a 1% decrease from 2022, and it was 2024 that was $3.2B.
So assuming 2023 was an anomaly (but why?) that's only a average 9% annual increase from 2022 to 2024.
Looks like a flattening trend. 2025 will be interesting, especially if it's flat again.
As you quite correctly point out, RISC-V's advantage isn't licensing cost -- if you license a core from SiFive or Andes or others then it might cost a bit less than Arm but it's not significant. And if you develop your own core then you'll spend more.
The RISC-V advantage is that you can customise it how you want without protracted licensing negotiations with Arm and a very real possibility that they might sue you if you try to do anything innovative.
You can add instructions, implement a subset of the instructions, sell chips or completed products to anyone in any market, license your design to other people for them to build, get acquired by other people who can then use what you designed. None of which you can do with Arm.
For me, it's because the ecosystem has fragged even harder than Xtensa, who will sell you custom CPUs. THead made yet another vector unit that's required to approach anything near the Intel/AMD moat numbers.
SpecInt/GHz last year was around half of Intel/AMD/ARM numbers.
The imminent demise of CISC has been trumpeted from the rooftops for at least the last 30 years...
Additionally, if you want to get super technical (as if there were ever a real delineation between RISC/CISC), both AMD and Intel decode x86 into internal micro-ops which are essentially RISC.
So, for all intents and purposes, CISC is dead and buried.
Given that most CISC chips also relied on microcoding and micro-ops, x86 having micro-ops wouldn't have made it anything like RISC as far as the original CISC/RISC debate goes.
The only reason that the "x86 is really RISC because of micro-ops" comes up is because x86 implementations are superscalar, which was supposed to be impossible with RISC chips, so people started coming up with the micro-op fudge to salvage the story that you need RISC to be an advanced modern microprocessor.
The truth is that CISC was never a meaningful category in the first place (it was only ever "not-RISC"), and RISC itself ceased to be a meaningful category around 30 years ago.
But designing complex IC's, getting those into products ("design wins"), selling those products, software support etc, all takes time.
For example, came across this list recently:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_common_microcontroller...
(note: it will be far from exhaustive. On the low end, uC architectures are like water in the ocean. Some are just more popular than others).
Many of the products those arch's go into, have 10y+ production & support lifecycles. Change comes slow there.
I suspect that over time, RISC-V will mop up a good portion of that list (for those entries still in production), and become a go-to default choice for maaany applications. Where a designer would need good reasons to not pick a RISC-V based part. Not unlike how low end Cortex-Mxx seem to be everywhere these days.
Higher up, licensing is only a tiny % of overall costs. (Peak) performance, GFLOPs/Watt etc is what matters. RISC-V is still (somewhat) behind the curve there. Which isn't surprising given how much engineering & optimisation has gone into x86 & Arm over the years.
But being a shared/open architecture, may open new doors. For example: right now, highest-performing parts are always closed (commercially licensed IP cores. And/or manufactured in-house).
For RISC-V otoh, it's entirely possible that at some point, the highest-performing cores are open source ones. Not saying that'll happen! But it's possible.
If so, eg. Arm could only match that by open sourcing their latest & greatest. Which ofcourse would evaporate their business model.
So the licensing alone could have RISC-V go places where proprietary IP cores can't go. Exiting times...
Edit: but issue below also applies.
"lsteamclient: Add support for ARM64." https://github.com/ValveSoftware/Proton/commit/8ff40aad6ef00... .. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43847860
/? box86: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
"New box86 v0.3.2 and Box64 v0.2.4 released – RISC-V and WoW64 support" (2023) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37197074
/? box64 is:pr RISC-V is:closed: https://github.com/ptitSeb/box64/pulls?q=is%3Apr+risc-v+is%3...