67 pointsby MilnerRoute10 days ago8 comments
  • outer_web10 days ago
    Direct file and DOGE issues, fear of deportation, belief that the IRS will be dismantled... it's amazing how many different ways the current administration has damaged its revenue streams.
    • sudoshred10 days ago
      I thought that was the point.
    • graymatters10 days ago
      [flagged]
      • outer_web10 days ago
        The income tax revenue stream is absolutely being damaged. Your belief that tariffs will supplement the federal revenue stream seems to be based on the assumption that no other variables will change with reciprocal tariffs between the US and rest of the world.
        • cyanydeez9 days ago
          dont forget their not recipricol tarrifs. Their inversions of trade deficits.
      • Jtsummers10 days ago
        https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/gover...

        So far this FY we're at $959 billion in revenue from income tax.

        https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports

        Those numbers are monthly and include services, but summing up the US imports over the same period (October 2024-February 2025) we get $1.86 trillion dollar. To replace our income tax revenue over this period we'd need a 50% tariff on all imported goods and services.

        What level of tariffs should we aim for so that we can reduce our federal income tax rates and increase or maintain overall revenue as you claim will happen?

      • mystified501610 days ago
        Tariffs are paid locally, in USD from the US economy to the government. Foreign states do not pay tariffs to the US government, they are paid by the business or entity importing the goods.

        So this will not bring in more money. All the tariffs are paid from money that already exists in the domestic US economy.

        Furthermore, tariffs are passed to consumers. Transitively this is an increased tax burden on consumers. Our taxes have, in effect, gone up.

        • hedora9 days ago
          The white house numbers assume 75% of the tariffs will be paid by foreigners.

          That’s actually not a crazy assumption for targeted tariffs. Imagine we only added a tariff to German cars. BMW and VW would have to compete with normally priced sedans, and lower their margins.

          Of course, that doesn’t work if you tariff 100% of the suppliers of essential goods.

          • DrillShopper9 days ago
            > BMW and VW would have to compete with normally priced sedans

            What will keep the US auto makers from just being 5% under the imports' price? They will still win on cost, can blame Trump, and also capture all the money on the table.

      • xdennis10 days ago
        > Tariffs are going to bring in huge amounts of money. Which in turn can and should result in lowered taxes.

        Tariffs are taxes. Are you really going to be happy if you pay less in taxes but make up for it by paying tariffs?

        But I wouldn't be so quick to rejoice. During Trump's previous term much of the money collected was given to farmers as subsidies for their losses from the counter tariffs.

        • silisili10 days ago
          > Are you really going to be happy if you pay less in taxes but make up for it by paying tariffs?

          FWIW, there are proponents of something called Fair Tax, which replaces income tax with a national sales tax. Either 25 or 30% IIRC. I never looked at it to determine if it was viable, but it seemed to have some level of support because I kept seeing it pop up.

          From what I can tell, that isn't completely different to the idea of replacing income taxes with tariffs, I guess, except that it doesn't apply to US goods.

      • iAMkenough10 days ago
        Source? Everything I'm seeing shows the opposite. Only the current administration seems to be saying that, but they lie out both sides of their mouth every day.
  • rdtsc10 days ago
    > Waiting to pay: The 1.1% drop in returns so far may be tied to the fact that the number of returns with balances due – as opposed to a refund paid out – has been going up in recent years, said North Carolina-based CPA Jim Buttonow, who worked at the IRS for nearly two decades before going into the private sector.

    I can see that. If more people owe money as opposed to getting a refund, there is more incentive to pay later. If US govt owes you money, you handed Uncle Sam a 0% loan, and then it makes sense to file as early as possible.

    This one is interesting:

    > Refusing to file in protest: Every year, a small number of filers politically object to filing and paying taxes for different reasons. This year is no different.

    > Olson said someone recently sent her a letter in the mail containing a copy of an angry letter they had sent to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “It said they didn’t want to file their tax return and pay taxes because they were upset that the Trump administration was trying to breach taxpayer confidentiality,” Olson said.

    That's happening with one of my acquaintances. They canvassed for Harris and were quite upset at the loss. As a form of protest they won't be filing their taxes. I don't know what happens then, I am not bold enough to try it myself. Even if a more friendly administration returns after 4 years, will they be willing to amnesty people who took this route. I wouldn't bet on it, and I don't see millions of people going for that option somehow, either.

    • refurb10 days ago
      > If more people owe money as opposed to getting a refund, there is more incentive to pay later.

      An extension doesnt change when the taxes are due.

      • rdtsc10 days ago
        Ah that’s true. Failure to pay is 0.5 percent of the unpaid balance per month. Are there investments that pay more to make it worth it?

        Maybe it about not wanting to eat stock loss yet having to sell in what looks like a bad market if they plan on using that to pay taxes.

        • refurb10 days ago
          The current penalty is 7% interest on unpaid amounts. Back when interest rates were low, it was 2-3% which you could easily beat, but 7% is tougher.
          • PopAlongKid10 days ago
            You are mistakenly conflating interest (which can go up or down every quarter and is charged daily, like an unpaid credit card balance) and penalties (which are a fixed amount per month set by law up to a maximum number of months). Most importantly, both of them apply if there is a failure to pay (FTP) by the original due date.
            • refurb9 days ago
              I am aware there is a difference.

              Most people would fall under the "underpayment" scenario since taxes are deducted on their W2, which is just interest on the underpayment.

            • 10 days ago
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    • kotaKat10 days ago
      Eh, it’s a ten year gamble. I’m doing pretty good on it myself. DOGE will ensure they don’t have enough people running around collecting.
      • outer_web10 days ago
        You're not paying taxes in hopes that Elon will paralyze the IRS?
        • treis10 days ago
          I screwed up my 2023 taxes by accident in an obvious way that netted me a significant extra amount. I haven't heard anything from the IRS in a year at this point. I imagine that at some point I'll get a letter asking for what I owe but I have no idea when. The IRS really sucks at its job and the GP is right that they're about to get a lot worse.
  • iszomer10 days ago
    IRS' DirectFile hasn't matured yet to the point of accepting health insurance and retirement data; it could only process basic W-2's. At least they made a good effort in it, will try again next year.
    • iAMkenough10 days ago
      I doubt it's around next year. Republicans say it's a waste of money, 18F and its priorities were "deleted" by DOGE, and private tax preparation companies can more easily buy influence in the federal government now.

      Providing a free service to make Americans' lives easier is not part of the business plan for the current administration. Scott Bessent only committed to keeping it available for the current tax season during his Treasury Secretary confirmation hearings.

      • iszomer9 days ago
        The more you know; ChatGPT and xAI have fascinating responses on clarifications; TIL what ad hominem's are.

        - What DOGE (allegedly) did, the GSA's + 18F's role in DirectFile, who is Scott Bessent: https://x.com/i/grok/share/HPCbOS8C5MCC7Uvwok2bg6uIk

        - It `felt` like an attack but I couldn't articulate it: https://chatgpt.com/share/67f47c39-1e98-8003-a072-2c083fbe9b...

        • iAMkenough16 hours ago
          My doubts have been founded:

          Trump administration plans to end the IRS Direct File program for free tax filing, AP sources say https://apnews.com/article/irs-direct-file-tax-returns-free-...

        • iAMkenough9 days ago
          I like the first link as fair analysis, but you clearly inserted your own bias (which ChatGPT framed its responses around) by asking leading questions in the second link.

          For instance, it responded: "it tries to delegitimize the IRS program by associating it with political actors assumed to have bad motives."

          Scott Bessent is inherently associated with the IRS and its programs in his official capacity. If he has bad motives, I didn't say it.

          • iszomer7 days ago
            Touche. I'm just going to start querying both platforms at the same time to judge the quality of their responses. I only split it due to a recent query when ChatGPT appeared dumbfounded and cited only one source when it parallel, Grok cited fifteen webpages. Query as follows (and outside of this post's context):

            - Has there ever been an instance quoted anywhere that said: "In this house we believe that: simplistic platitudes, trite tautologies, and semantically overloaded aphorisms are poor substitutes for respectful and rational discussions about complex issues."?

    • outer_web10 days ago
      Didn't Elon 'delete' the GSA group that did DirectFile?
    • iAMkenough16 hours ago
      And it's gone:

      Trump administration plans to end the IRS Direct File program for free tax filing, AP sources say https://apnews.com/article/irs-direct-file-tax-returns-free-...

    • graymatters10 days ago
      Yes. It is IRS is deliberately dragging its feet to make it a real option for millions and millions of Americans. So that the near monopoly Intuit can rake in billions in sales each year.
  • rogerrogerr10 days ago
    I’m aware of some people who _always_ file an extension, but I haven’t pinned them down on why. Does anyone here file an extension in most/all years? Curious the reason.
    • matttproud10 days ago
      If you are an American who lives abroad, you still need to file a tax return and possibly pay an obligation (two countries do citizenship based taxation: U.S. since Civil War and Eritrea).

      To properly file taxes when living abroad, you usually file a tax return in your country of domicile first and then transfer select facts to the American one for credits, deductions, and other offsets.

      All of this means minimally doing two tax filings. So: there you go. Heaven help you if you ever live in a place where the tax window is incompatible with the American ones.

      • noodlesUK10 days ago
        > Heaven help you if you ever live in a place where the tax window is incompatible with the American ones.

        The lack of matchup between the UK tax year from 6-Apr to 5-Apr against the US tax year of 1 Jan to 31 Dec is the bane of my existence.

        • CogitoCogito9 days ago
          How do you deal with this practically? If an American moved to the UK now (after April 6th of this year), how would you recommend dealing with it? Even if your answer is to get a tax accountant, do you recommend doing that early?
          • noodlesUK8 days ago
            Not an accountant, simply talking from my experience.

            If you're moving after April 6th you're probably going to be fine on the UK side. If you have any US income in the tax year you can claim either split year (on the foreign pages) or treaty residence (using hs302) in the US up until you move (assuming you file Self Assessment, most PAYE employees don't, though you strictly should given the foreign stuff). HMRC is way nicer and easier to work with than the IRS. It's a breath of fresh air. This is pretty simple, but UK accountants are also pretty cheap.

            The trouble is on the US side. If you're an American citizen you are liable to pay US taxes on all your income. If you're outside the US for most of the tax year, you can claim the FEIE and if you make less than ~$130,000, you have little else to do. If you're PAYE in the UK, you can claim the FTC on the cash basis in the US and you will probably also be fine. This is all fairly simple to do, and depending on your comfort levels you can probably do it in TaxAct or myExpatTaxes online. You also need to file FBARs and possibly 8938s every April. The trouble is if you are a sole trader or similar in the UK. This makes the FTC really hard. You will probably want a US accountant with knowledge of foreign tax if you are self-employed. Buzzacott is a firm I have seen do some good work for friends of mine with complex US and UK tax filings (though I have not personally used them). You can expect to pay thousands of dollars in tax prep fees every year if you use an accountant. This stuff seriously exceeds the knowledge of most US CPAs, so you will need someone who specifically advertises this.

            Also as an American you need to avoid pretty much all of the useful tax-planning tools here in the UK. You can't really have a S&S ISA, or any other kind of tax-advantaged account other than a workplace pension without it all going totally bananas on the US side. You also can't own a UK limited company (more than ~10%) without getting whacked with crazy 5471 reporting. Same applies to UK trusts, you can't touch them without 3520 reporting (even for trivial things like life insurance trusts here in the UK, and even certain pension products). Many banks and financial services providers won't touch Americans with a 10 foot pole.

            On the other hand you can potentially save a lot in taxes if you ever move back to the US if you've accumulated a lot of FTC carry forward. You can also probably pay a pretty minimal amount of US student loans if you're on IBR because the payments are based on your AGI which will be artificially low.

            The US needs to abolish citizenship based taxation and chill out on the reporting requirements (which are generally the worst part) for people who generally live abroad. However, I wouldn't hold my breath. Even though the current admin has said they'll get rid of it, I just don't see that there's much political capital to spend on this issue. There aren't that many Americans living abroad, and most Americans don't give a shit about this sort of thing.

            • CogitoCogito2 days ago
              I already live in the EU so know about a lot of the irritations of being an American abroad, but I was surprised to hear about the whole shifted UK tax year. I am considering a move there so I'll just remember your post and use it as a starting point in dealing with it all. Thanks so much for all the info!
      • guenthert10 days ago
        Afaiu, a two-month extension is automatically applied for citizens (in the tax-sense, i.e. including green-card holders) living abroad.
    • PopAlongKid10 days ago
      California has a sensible policy that the IRS should adopt -- extensions are automatic. That's right, they only care that you pay at least 90% of your total tax liability by the April due date. There is never a failure to file (FTF) penalty as long as you file your California return by the October extension date.
    • qaboutthat10 days ago
      I almost never get all my K-1s in order in time to file. So I basically always file for an extension.
      • qwerpy10 days ago
        Adding on to this. Had one K-1 come late and my CPAs strongly advised filing for an extension to give them enough time to do thorough reviews. Didn’t save me any money, they still told me roughly how much to send to the IRS immediately.
      • afpx10 days ago
        Somehow all of my K-1s came early this year. It's the first time in 20 years that I didn't have to file an extension!
    • rootsudo10 days ago
      You can also file off season, get all deductions prepared, and put tax money in stocks and get a good return, usually. Last few years it was better to wait and then get pay lower.

      This year, maybe because the IRS is gutted the extensions wouldn’t be manually reviewed and a reduction in audits?

      • muro10 days ago
        > put tax money in stocks and get a good return

        except now, I guess...

        • rogerrogerr10 days ago
          Now might be a historically good time to do it… or historically bad. But it’s definitely historical.
    • creer10 days ago
      Filing an extension doesn't change when income tax is due - but it changes the deadline for various things. Not just the 1040 filing deadline. Other procedures do not state their own deadline but rely of [the day your tax return is due, including extensions]. And there is no cost or penalty for filing the extension.

      So you file the extension and sort out the rest later. I have in the past filed the extension (to lock in the extension date), then just days later filed my 1040 - because for once it happened to be ready early.

      If you file your 1040 package without having filed for extension, you forfeit that later deadline for the rest.

    • joezydeco10 days ago
      The penalties and interest that the IRS charges are cheaper than any bank or credit card rate.

      This time around, it's a cheap casino bet that the IRS will be totally abolished by the end of the year. Approach random systems with random strategies.

      • outer_web10 days ago
        If the IRS is gone by EOY then you'd better buy canned food and ammunition.
      • junar10 days ago
        It's about 13% annualized right now. You need to add up both the failure to pay penalty at 0.5% per month and the interest at 7% per year. With good credit, you can likely get a cheaper loan.
    • milesvp10 days ago
      The way I understand it is that some people put off filing as long as possible because they get a better return on other investments. They’re willing to pay interest and other fees on their taxes in order to pay as late as possible. I haven’t looked into this personally because I tend to be risk averse enough to pay off relatively low interest rate loans, but I’ve heard at least one personal anecdote once removed to this effect.
      • yodsanklai10 days ago
        > because they get a better return on other investments

        let's hope their investment isn't the S&P500

    • cyanydeez9 days ago
      My mother does, and it's because she's procrastinating and often thats because its a lot of paper work from a long work history and various benefits.
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  • ameliaquining9 days ago
    It sounds a little like the reporters don't actually know why filings are down, and are grasping at straws a bit.
  • Havoc10 days ago
    Reflection of struggling consumers? Or the mass firings at IRS? Or something else entirely?
    • dlachausse10 days ago
      I’m guessing it’s mostly this…

      > Fear of deportation: Undocumented immigrants register with the IRS and pay billions of dollars in taxes every year. Multiple sources said members of this community might be holding back during this tax season, as the Trump administration tries to use IRS data to facilitate deportations

      • sorcerer-mar10 days ago
        Cutting inflows to own the libs
        • chung81239 days ago
          Not filing taxes doesn't mean the money wasn't collected though.
  • cma10 days ago
    Hurricanes in the south have extended deadlines past the normal extended deadline.
  • silexia10 days ago
    Illegal immigrants are no longer filing tax returns out of fear of deportation.