What it does get right though is policy certainty is important. Tariffs won't bring back much manufacturing if capital thinks that they're going to be revoked, either by congress/courts or by the next administration.
https://www.ft.com/content/b1079606-5543-4fc5-acae-2c6c84b3a...
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2184
https://www.investopedia.com/biden-s-parting-gift-to-small-b...
https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statement...
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/biden-...
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration...
Just looking at the first article from FT:
LG - committed to a new manufacturing plant in TN... in 2017. Completed in 2019. Both under Trump. Expanded more a few years later - under Biden. What is the status on their 2023 commit?
Hanwa - Georgia facility opened in 2019. Under Trump. What is the status of commits under Biden?
LONGi - this is the only one of the three I can find immediate evidence for following-through with their factory in Ohio (joint venture with Invenergy/Illuminate USA)
The U.S. can't "reward" local manufacturing (through subsidies, etc.) enough to offset the absolutely massive subsidies that China gives out like candy. (See, e.g., what China has done in the solar panel and steel spaces. Conservative estimates place the value of Chinese subsidies in those two markets alone at nearly $1 trillion dollars over the past decade.)
The point of tariffs is to eliminate the financial benefit of using lower-cost foreign providers for sourcing products for local sale.
The problem with the Trump tariffs are not that they exist, but that they are being thrown about without any thought into who or what should be subject to tariffs.
Free trade allowed new products, and existing products at lower price points to simply exist.
Producing these (and other game components) requires specialized machinery which isn't made in the US. So even if someone did want to set up a board game manufacturing company in the US, they would now be hit by tariffs as they bought the machines they need.
Stegmaier says that possibly games where all the components are cards will be less affected, as there are companies in the US printing playing cards.
He does mention that he's started to think about fundamentally redesigning his future games in a way that makes it possible to cheaply manufacture and package them in the US.
I think the labor cost alone makes it not possible to manufacture them in the west. But also ignoring that, consider that injection molding for miniatures can be more expensive in the west in itself. Usually because factories work on a different scale and have higher requirements for minimum order quantities, but also because they do not work usually with miniatures so they would need to adapt their tooling, expertise and know how for this specific kind of product.
Imagine a factory injection molding chairs suddenly receiving a quote for a bunch of miniatures, they can do it, but they are going to charge you for the time needed to figure out how, and for the changes in the lines.
Consider also that usually miniatures 3D files are stl or obj because they are sculpted, while the factory might work only with cad as that's the standard in manufacturing. These two are radically different and there is no easy conversion from stl to cad, which would require it being re-modeled in most cases.
Also, with a chinese factory you can expect to give them 3D files and they will take care of everything (designing molds and avoiding undercuts). I'm sure this has separate cost in the west as it involves a specialized expertise which is for sure more expensive than in China.
Btw here's a nice writeup from a person that tried to open a game factory in the USA, he doesn't even mention plastic parts though. https://www.superheumann.com/post/my-year-in-manufacturing-g...
It doesn't though. It costs a certain amount of Yuan. About 70CNY
Therefore to make the numbers add up now they need $5 to buy 70CNY
Which means to make China a viable source, the exchange rate needs to go from 1:7 to 1:14.
Those Chinese Sovereign wealth funds need to be more generous with their CNY if they want to keep the manufacturing.
Even the creative industries are feeling the change. Spin up Netflix and you'll see Korean and Japanese series on the front page.
At that point, it might just be worthwhile to develop 100% abroad and then sell in the US with a one-time tariff rather than pay for itemized tariffs/US greedflation.
It's the cost of setting up and running the data centre that costs money. This is once again has a significant labor component.
All of these would be cheaper in any other country. The choices are endless.
In general it's not treated that way. Getting a $10 cable at work even though your salary is $80,000 can be hard
One of the biggest costs is bureaucracy.
Given other countries will have reciprocal tariffs and/or higher taxes I'm not sure why they will be cheaper it's a complex change going on.
Office 365 is now 25 % more expensive.
A 20% tax on Facebook and Google isn't going to do anything. A 20% on Office 365 is meaningful but only until they find software alternatives from anywhere else in the globe.
As for the US, O365 will not be more expensive but the cost of producing O365 will be. It will be up to execs to determine if they want to pass the costs to the shrinking number of businesses or if they want to eat the cost of production at the expense of shareholders.
Either way, American society is going to eat the cost, either in loss of customers or in loss of 401k.
But that isn't the only option that's available to these other countries:
> Dubbed a “bazooka” by some EU officials when it came into force in 2023, the ACI allows the bloc to select from a wide range of retaliatory measures, such as revoking the protection of intellectual property rights or their commercial exploitation, for example, software downloads and streaming services.[0]
Maybe it's time for other countries to respond by taking the copyright off of American media and setting up their own affordable streaming sites to a global market.
Why or why not?
The harmonization of EU IP laws with American ones was a quid pro quo done in exchange for the adoption of free trade agreements.
If America doesn't want to hold up their end of the bargain why should Europe?
I believe the European Union actually has a specific type of anti-tariff policy that they could implement that would eliminate intellectual property protections of software or entertainment companies from countries engaging in trade wars. It’s an option of last resort and I don’t think the EU would actually implement it in response to the Trump stuff but if they did it could be devastating for Silicon Valley and also for Hollywood.
I think this is incredibly unremarkable. These are all fixed costs. It's variable costs, like wages and fuel, that drive everything up. If a table costs twice as much you might buy a slightly lower quality table, or you might be fine.
I've never seen a corporate or government policy that doesn't allow for exemptions if the correct rings are kissed.
In fact, its often the point of a policy.
They don't (directly) impact service imports like games, VFX, or outsourced software.
Edit: I'm wrong. This article is about tabletop games, not video games. Maybe a title change in HN would be helpful?
But we are not talking about a tariff on steel, we are talking about a tariff on everything.
And yet these low profit margin corporations have executives and CEOs making millions of dollars a year. It doesn’t make any sense. Why not just pay the executives and finance people less?
(My comment does not apply to the small business board game company the original op thread link was about. My comment is only a direct reply to what this other comment is saying)
Most of the intermediaries are SME. Despite what you might believe from the media, SMEs are the heart of the economy for most actual people. Their share of jobs is far higher than their impact on GDP and they have neither the means nor the know how to optimise their supply chain like large corporations.
Most SMEs CEO earn less than a software engineer. There is absolutely no way they can take the hit without passing it to customers.
The other comment is directly targeting companies which are in every points similar to the small business board game companies.
I don’t understand your disclaimer (which I somehow missed when I replied first) nor why my reply is downvoted but so be it.
In the end I am pretty sure the US can't be avoided, but today the US made sure that those who had good ties to it got punished and the world will remember that. I would like to think the world might ask it self if the USD should be still be the lead currency.
The rest of the world wasn't at fault that US capitalists decided to outsource their manufacturing base to cheaper countries. I guess someone in the US got damn rich doing precisely that. Those are the people you should blame.
Additionally tarrifs cut two ways, if countries react as tou would expect them to. The EU got the biggest single market in the world, and the US just made it harder to sell their stuff there — again, beyond pure costs, reliability is an issue in itself. Why would the EU buy something from the US when products from elsewhere have less tariffs and you don't have to deal with the scenario of an erratic political leader making it up as he goes which makes it somewhat impossible to rely on a plan.
Having bad leadership is a thing that costs a nation dearly. I don't see why the rest of the world would feel inclined to carry that cost.