113 pointsby Qem4 days ago8 comments
  • jmkd4 days ago
    80% of the world's supply comes from Sudan...that is certainly a surprise. I'd love to see a table of some of the world's most essential goods that have 80% or more reliance on a single market.
    • ceejayoz4 days ago
      60% of IV fluids used in the US came from a single manufacturing plant that got hit by a hurricane last year. https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/11/19/nx...

      My wife gets regular infusions and had to ration for months; the local hospital canceled elective surgeries as well.

      • ipsum24 days ago
        IV fluids aren't even difficult to produce compared to gum arabic, its just different salts in water. This is just pure government regulation causing rationing and harming people.

        For those downvoting me, here's the American Medical Association:

        https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/fixin...

        > The Biden administration has invoked the Defense Production Act “to help speed up recovery efforts and get that North Cove plant back up and running,” Garcia noted. Hospitals, meanwhile, are turning to alternative options such as hydration tablets and sports drinks while prioritizing IV fluids for the higher-acuity and higher-risk patients.

        > The FDA, meanwhile, has “released new guidance that eases up on rules regarding the compounding of IV solutions,” she added. “That's to make it easier for hospitals and other facilities to do this during the shortage period.”

        NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/long-helene-iv-fl...:

        > So, why are these essential fluids — a lifeline for hospitals — so hard to come by?

        > As is often the case with drug shortages, it comes down to money, and IV fluids don’t bring in much of it for manufacturers, said Erin Fox, senior pharmacy director at the University of Utah Health.

        > “These are life-saving products, but at the same time these are absolutely treated as kind of commodities,” Fox said.

        > The high barrier to entry — including the time and cost required to meet the regulatory requirements for setting up a manufacturing facility — along with the pressure to keep prices low, means drugmakers aren’t really motivated to jump into the market, Fox said.

        NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/10/11/nx...

        > On Wednesday, the Food and Drug Administration announced it has authorized 19 IV products for temporary importation from Canada, China, Ireland and the U.K.

        • weaksauce4 days ago
          > This is just pure government regulation causing rationing and harming people.

          having worked in the space... you are at the level of knowledge of "you don't know what you don't know." it's regulated for good reason. WFI is ultra pure water and costs quite a bit of money to make and is one of the main ingredients in a lot of pharmaceuticals.

        • csours4 days ago
          If we're being reductionist, it's just corporations being greedy! This is a fun game.

          IV fluids aren't difficult to produce, but it IS difficult to produce PACKAGED IV fluids consistently, every time, in such a way that they don't make people sick.

          Because that is difficult and important, there are tests and certifications. In turn the tests and certifications are difficult - and yes at this point there is extra cost, and that extra cost becomes a moat, which drives up price.

          Unfortunately, the moat is both consumer protection and rent seeking business advantage. That is, part of the excess cost beyond the base ingredients goes to protecting consumers, however a lot of the excess cost comes from the fact that not everyone is willing to undergo all of the paperwork and process that consumers and insurance have asked the government to require.

          You are not completely wrong, just mostly wrong.

          "Pure government regulation" is so rare as to be non-existent in most people's daily life. "Government regulation" is someone's moat. Sometimes it's a consumer group, sometimes it's special interest, sometimes it's a business. Very rarely it is for the government's own sake.

        • refurb4 days ago
          No, it’s not easy. At all.

          I’ve worked in parenteral pharmaceutical manufacturing (IV drugs) and making sterile products at scale is actually quite hard to do.

          It is true the ingredients are basic. Where the challenge comes in is running a manufacturing line where all products that come out the other end are guaranteed to be 100% sterile.

          And actually calling them “sterile” isn’t true, they need to be “pyrogen-free” or "aseptic". Pyrogens are basically “fever causing” materials like fragments of bacterial cell walls.

          You can’t just mix up the ingredients and then sterilize it (heat or radiation). There may not be any viable infectious agents (bacteria or viruses) but it will contain fragments like LPS (lipopolysaccharides) which will make patients very sick.

          And the finished product is a fantastic growth medium for bacteria since it doesn't typically contain any preservatives to prevent bacterial growth.

          So the process requires a number of steps to remove all pyrogens (micro pore filtration) on a large manufacturing plant which is quite challenging when you’re dealing with ten thousand liter process vessels then filling millions of IV bags. Every vessel, line, filter, connection and package in the plant is a potential source of contamination. You also need extensive testing throughout the process to ensure nothing goes wrong.

          It’s one of the reason why there are often shortages of generic IV drugs. It’s expensive to set up and requires expertise to maintain the process. If problems happen, production lines can be shutdown for months while the issue is fixed. As a result a lot of manufacturers just exit the market when prices drop because the profit margin gets eaten up every time an issue arises.

          You can read the FDA's guidance document and the cGMP guidance to get a sense as to the complexity.

          https://www.regulations.gov/document/FDA-2003-D-0145-0005

        • frereubu4 days ago
          With respect, any time someone writes "just" in a sentence like this I'm immediately suspicious that it comes from a place of ignorance. What is your qualification to make such a sweeping statement?
          • rootsudo4 days ago
            1. You can read the ingreendients of IV fluid. 2. You can go online to different markets to see availability. 3. You can look up regulation to see if there are FDA limits that force USA health care to go to a specific vendor or approved vendor.

            It is very much known that you can arbitrage medical costs, drug costs by going to Canada and Mexico. It is very much also very simple to research, search and find vendors or manufacturers located outside different geographic areas.

            Therefore, your "qualifications" rebuttal becomes nil, this is basic adult literacy.

            Call it economics/subsitution research, call it being informed, or just googling.

            It is very much not ignorance but a very valid question to a very valid concern - most market restrictions are not because of "safety" (unfortunately, but it does become a boogey man) or "non-availability" (there is supply, but it isn't allowed.) but because it benefits some one/some company financially.

            • ceejayoz4 days ago
              > You can read the ingreendients of IV fluid.

              Bread has four ingredients. Flour, water, salt, and yeast. Do you think all breads are therefore the same?

              • rootsudo4 days ago
                [flagged]
                • ceejayoz4 days ago
                  Ah, I thought this was a good-faith discussion. My bad.
          • throw940404 days ago
            With respect, parent comment is right. It is "just" destiled water with some salts. You also have to remove dissolved gasses and store it in good bags. Tricky part are contaminants and paperwork.

            We had similar situation in communist czechoslovakia. There was a plan to manufacture female hygiene products, in a single factory for entire country. This factory burned down on second year of five year plan. So for some time our ladies were forced to use toilet paper. We still managed to make IV fluids though!

            My guess US planning is a bit similar. Too special to import medical supplies from neighbours or from Europe.

        • ceejayoz4 days ago
          There’s a little more to it than that when making something that gets injected directly to the bloodstream, often in medically compromised patients.
        • neuronexmachina4 days ago
          My understanding is that the challenges around IV fluids aren't around producing the fluid, but rather ensuring that the containers are sterile and remain sterile.
        • mmooss4 days ago
          > IV fluids don’t bring in much of it for manufacturers

          It looks like the problem is a for-profit health system. I want IV fluids, injected directly into the bloodstream of very sick people, to be very carefully regulated.

    • kiritanpo4 days ago
      The essentiality of the product is debatable, but ~80% of maple syrup production comes from Canada, 91% of that from the province of Quebec.

      China produces ~80% of the world's magnesium. Cobalt comes mostly from Congo.

      In the 40-50% range, there is Kazakhstan with uranium and Australia with lithium.

      You can explore more here: https://worldpopulationreview.com/search?query=production&fi...

    • staplung4 days ago
      ~70% of the world's phosphate reserves are in Morocco. Considering how important phosphates are to the entire planet's food security I'd rate it near the top of the list. Practically speaking, phosphates are a non-renewable resource.
      • Aloisius4 days ago
        Only ~13% of the world's phosphate is mined in Morocco today, so it's a rather different situation.

        And of course, phosphate reserves are only a small portion (0.02%) of the world's estimated phosphate resources.

      • WillAdams4 days ago
        Yeah, China quit exporting them a couple of years ago.

        Moreover, they are famously the limiting element in Isaac Asimov's thought-experiment of converting the earth's crust into biomass.

        • droideqa4 days ago
          Ooh, I would like to learn/see links about that!
          • staplung4 days ago
            I think it's sort of a companion bit to the short story 2430 A.D. The story line is a bit different but the internet suggests that as an addendum or companion article he did a kind of back of the envelope calculation going from the elemental composition of the earth's crust to maximum biomass. Basically, you'd run out of phosphorus first. Much of the crust would still remain because silicon and aluminum are mostly unused and although iron is used, there's still far too much of it after you run out of phosphorus.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2430_A.D.

    • Havoc4 days ago
      Yeah there are a couple of resource concentrations in Africa that aren’t immediately obvious.

      Platinum group metals, phosphorus, manganese, cobalt etc all pretty Africa heavy usually one or two countries

    • rasz4 days ago
      Over 80% of the potash used by U.S. farmers comes from Canadian mines.
      • Sabinus4 days ago
        I wonder what that statistic will be a year from now.
  • oersted4 days ago
    And yet Gum Arabic is extremely cheap for the amounts needed.

    At $4-$7 per Kg in the US, the cost per Coke can would be in the order of 0.025 cents (guesstimate).

    This is interesting considering that 80% of the supply comes from Sudan.

    It is a nearly universal ingredient in processed foods and professional kitchens. I wonder how the economics work to push the price down.

    EDIT: Apparently naturally abundant Acacia trees produce it with barely any oversight and it is easy to harvest in large quantities compared to how much volume is needed in end-products. I suppose if Sudan tried to squeeze their monopoly other suppliers would easily come up in other regions. The reason for the monopoly must simply be a combination of a favorable environment and the fact that they are willing to do it very cheaply because unfortunately they don’t have many other options to sustain themselves.

    • bpodgursky4 days ago
      > I suppose if Sudan tried to squeeze their monopoly other suppliers would easily come up in other regions.

      There are a lot of goods like this, where the market has consolidated around the cheapest supplier for convenience but if that supplier disappeared the next-cheapest one would be fine at 10% more. It looks like a catastrophic chokepoint on the economy but it's really not a big deal.

    • geraneum4 days ago
      > I wonder how the economics work to push the price down.

      Maybe it’s not only the economic strategies that push the price down?

    • xyst4 days ago
      Time to start up a business as a “conflict free” gum arabic supplier.

      Maybe they will make a movie about it: Lord of Gum <WIP>

      • sudahtigabulan4 days ago
        It's not "lord of gum", it's "gumlord".
        • RandomBacon4 days ago
          I think they are referencing the Nicolas Cage movie, Lord of War.
        • deadbabe4 days ago
          I like his way better
      • trhway4 days ago
        the conflict in Sudan isn't without usual players and the non-"conflict free" gum money go to Putin too :

        https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/20/africa/wagner-sudan-russia-li...

        "The Russian mercenary group Wagner has been supplying Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces with missiles to aid their fight against the country’s army, Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources have told CNN."

      • the-chitmonger4 days ago
        How about Gumdog Millionaire?
    • cess114 days ago
      "I wonder how the economics work to push the price down."

      Nomads and colonisers mostly. Interesting keywords/phrases to look into might include janjaweed, Muammar Ghadaffi, Omar al-Bashir, genocide in Darfur, United Arab Emirates, anglo-egyptian forces.

      There are also tangential events worth looking into, like the 1998 attack on the Al-Shifa factory.

    • dod9er4 days ago
      They should just pull a Trump and call IT a Deal.
  • maxglute3 days ago
    > Sudanese gum accounted for 80 percent of the global gum trade. From 50,000 tons per annum in the 50’s and 60’s, Sudan’s gum exports declined to around 25,000 tons in the late 80’s. Since then, Sudanese exports have been at an average of 25,000 tons.

    https://www.ide.go.jp/English/Data/Africa_file/Company/sudan...

    Seems weird world population and consumption increased by... a lot sinc ethe 60s but Sudans production halfedand still accounts for 80% of world demand? I guess there's substitutes, or some uses deprecated.

  • 4 days ago
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  • 0xbadcafebee4 days ago
    If you don't want your corporation's supply chain at risk, maybe use your lobbying dollars to ask the executive branch to actually support foreign nations rather than let them fall into civil war.

    Sudan has had a military dictatorship from 1989-2019 (led by Omar al-Bashir).

    In 2017, both President Obama and President Trump lifted sanctions on Sudan, after al-Bashir reneged on a promise to step down just two years earlier.

    In 2018/2019, price hikes resulted in massive protests and a subsequent revolution against al-Bashir. This finally resolved in 2019, when a joint military-civilian political agreement, constitution, and council were formed. At that point, lots of aid was needed in order to rebuild and stabilize the country, but as usual, actually getting that money was difficult. The bulk of it came from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    In 2021, there were two more coups.

    In 2023, a new civil war broke out between the military dictatorship and a paramilitary branch of it. That war is still persisting. War crimes are rampant, mass-murder and genocide persist, almost the entire country cannot afford food. The main backer of the paramilitary group preventing the conflict from ending is the UAE.

    • InitialLastName4 days ago
      That may be learning the wrong lesson. US corporations have used "securing supply chains" to justify encouraging the US government to incite a whole lot of strife and conflict around the world in the last century-and-a-bit.
      • FuriouslyAdrift4 days ago
        Yeah we destablised a whole nation (ok much more than one) just to secure a supply of bananas.

        "From 1954 onward Guatemala was ruled by a series of US-backed military dictators, leading to the Guatemalan Civil War which lasted until 1996. Approximately 200,000 civilians were killed in the war, and numerous human rights violations committed, including massacres of civilian populations, rape, aerial bombardment, and forced disappearances"

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_PBFortune

        • Sabinus4 days ago
          To be fair, the government did it to 'stop communism'. The US fruit companies persuaded the government to 'stop communism' because they wanted to secure cheap bananas.
      • genewitch4 days ago
        yes please, find another ingredient that doesn't involve smuggling it out of a war-torn country, at the very least. Unfortunately i didn't know this when i bought some and now i got a giant tub of conflict gum that i'll probably never use. I got it to make "Chocolate Frosty" that wouldn't have the tiny ice crystals in it. It didn't work, i think you have to put it in something that is hot in order to activate it, and i didn't want to experiment to find out which part i could heat up without affecting the end result.

        there are other gums, too. And now that i know about the collection of gum arabic i'll avoid it in processed stuff, too. I already boycott nestle, and i can do without coca-cola, too.

        • Aloisius4 days ago
          Coca-cola itself doesn't appear to contain gum arabic, at least not in the US.

          Outside the US, there are Coca-cola products that do though like some Schweppes and Fanta sodas.

          • genewitch3 days ago
            I feel like people misinterpreted what i was saying. I will now, when i am looking at a processed food, look for Gum Arabic in the ingredient list, and not purchase anything that contains it. I know what it is, because i have bought it for its intended purpose prior to learning it was possibly smuggled from a conflict area.

            I don't have any problem not buying products for reasons like this. No problem whatsoever. So if a company wants me to buy its product, they can use another ingredient that doesn't involve smuggling it out of a conflict zone.

      • mmooss4 days ago
        > strife and conflict

        Also, a lot of oppression in the name of stability.

    • ToucanLoucan4 days ago
      Bold of you to assume the Government wouldn't install a dictator as their method of "supporting" a foreign nation. As though we haven't stomped popular left-leaning governments into the dirt via sponsoring military coups numerous times.

      Hell, I don't know anything about Sudan, but if you told me the CIA installed Omar al-Bashir to ensure the continued cheap supply of Gum Arabic, I wouldn't necessarily believe you, but I wouldn't call you a liar either.

      • alexey-salmin4 days ago
        > Bold of you to assume the Government wouldn't install a dictator as their method of "supporting" a foreign nation.

        Well he immediately suggested to "install a new dictator" in the adjacent comment. [1] I figure dictators are OK as long as the spice keeps flowing.

        [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43271206

    • zdragnar4 days ago
      What do you think the executive branch of the USA could have done to prevent any of this instability? al-Burhan hardly seems better than al-Bashir.
      • 0xbadcafebee4 days ago
        1) don't reward a dictator after renegging on promises by allowing them more trade

        2) use foreign policy maneuvers to pressure UAE to end its support for the paramilitary group

        3) provide aid of our own which strengthens our position and gives us more options to end the paramilitary group's reign

        4) install a new dictator. it's not a good option, but if the previous options don't work, I think the citizens of Sudan would admit it's better than genocide and starvation at this point.

        Remember back in "Trump 1.0", when he stopped us from being involved in foreign affairs "because America First", and there were warnings that a lack of American presence would create a power vacuum that our enemies would fill? This is that outcome.

        If we had been the ones providing aid instead of the Saudis and the UAE, this whole recent catastrophe might have been avoided. An important lesson for the current administration as they continue to end foreign aid to gain cheap political points.

        And granted, I know a whole lot of people go "so what?" to genocide and starvation, but also Coke & M&Ms are now more expensive, so maybe that'll matter to them.

    • BurningFrog4 days ago
      Pretty sure the Sudanese civil wars are due to conflicts within Sudan, not US foreign policy.
    • drivebyhooting4 days ago
      Ridiculous. The money is better spent establishing local production.
  • nielsbot4 days ago
    (saved you a click)

    It's gum arabic.

    > Sudan produces around 80 per cent of the world’s gum arabic, a natural substance harvested from acacia trees that’s used widely to mix, stabilise and thicken ingredients in mass-market products including L’Oreal lipsticks and Nestle pet food.

  • latexr4 days ago
    The “key ingredient” is “gum arabic”.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gum_arabic

    • bdcravens4 days ago
      Literally the first sentence in the article:

      "Gum arabic, a vital ingredient used in everything...."

      The identity of this secret isn't what makes this article worth reading.

      • latexr4 days ago
        I know it’s in the first sentence, I read the article, that’s how I know what the ingredient is. The point of my comment was to reduce the click-bait so people are better informed regarding if they want to read more or not, and provide an easy reference for more information.
        • btbuildem4 days ago
          Exactly. How hard would it have been to include the two words "gum arabic" in the title in the first place?
          • hnlmorg4 days ago
            Probably because the article is about how this important ingredient is smuggled rather than a list of ingredients for popular drinks and snacks.

            And also probably because the article is featured on general audience site rather than a scientific or culinary journal.

            I get that people hate clickbait headlines but this is hardly misleading, impossibly vague nor exaggerated.

            • bena4 days ago
              "How gum arabic, a key ingredient in Coca-Cola, M&M's, is smuggled from war-torn Sudan".
              • hnlmorg4 days ago
                Sure. But now you have a more verbose heading that places the emphasis (by being earlier in the title) on information that’s not actually relevant to the article itself. While also making is sound less accessible to the general audience of that specific website.

                In short, that’s not an improvement.

                This is a classic case of the HN crowd not understanding that different audiences are interested in different details.

                • bena4 days ago
                  Personally, I'd flip it around to make Sudan the lead in.

                  And it's two words, you could make other cuts if you want.

                  However, at this point, you arguing a matter of taste.

                  I don't think Coca-Cola or M&Ms are relevant to the article itself. Gum arabic isn't that uncommon. I mean, this is a largely software developer focused crowd and a lot of people here were like "Ah, gum arabic".

        • pvg4 days ago
          It mostly creates a thread of meta, as you can see.
      • 4 days ago
        undefined
    • card_zero4 days ago
      Unexpectedly, this additive has an extensive "health benefits" section.
      • LordShredda4 days ago
        This seems to be a thing with a lot of wikipedia articles on various foods, especially in other languages.
    • myself2484 days ago
      Thanks, saved me a click.
      • soneca4 days ago
        I think which ingredient is being smuggled from a war-tone is the least interesting part of the article for me
        • genewitch4 days ago
          it is (to me), if you want to know what not to buy. That's the easiest and practically, the only thing that a majority of people can do with this information.
      • oinkbutton4 days ago
        Knowing it's gum Arabic isn't the core thing the article is exploring.
      • anon848736284 days ago
        By clicking into the comments instead of the article?
        • dijksterhuis4 days ago
          not parent, but i often scan comments to get an idea of if it’s worth bothering to read an article.

          i was more interested in what the ingredient was. the fact its being smuggled (a) doesn’t surprise me and (b) isn’t something im particularly interested in learning about.

          so, in this case, it wasn’t worth opening the article for me. i learned what i wanted to learn during my normal comment scan that i usually do with titles like this (outside my wheel house).

          • myself2484 days ago
            Yes, exactly this.

            I don't read all the news in the world, I don't even read all the news on HN. Having that extra bit of info helps me decide whether to read the article.

    • 4 days ago
      undefined
  • meetkevin4 days ago
    [dead]