115 pointsby bookofjoe9 days ago12 comments
  • teeray6 days ago
    > U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), experts show that humans can single-handedly and effectively manage a heterogenous swarm of more than 100 autonomous ground and aerial vehicles, while feeling overwhelmed only for brief periods of time

    This will surprise nobody who has watched professional Starcraft players.

    • szvsw6 days ago
      > feeling overwhelmed only for brief periods of time

      There is something deeply, darkly comedic (depressing?) about the qualitative language here. Primarily the way it simultaneously intersects with modern discourse around wellness, anxiety, and mental health in such a banal manner at the same time as the latent/implicit violence of action (given that the obvious subtext is operating semi-autonomous killing machines).

      • parsimo20106 days ago
        Agreed- they write as if being overwhelmed 3% of the time is a victory. A good system would have people feeling overwhelmed 0% of the time.
        • colechristensen6 days ago
          >A good system would have people feeling overwhelmed 0% of the time.

          There are benefits to being pushed past your limits from time to time. Also, there's just no such thing as 0. When you're designing limits you don't say "this never happens", you're saying "this event happens less than this rate for this cohort".

          • parsimo20106 days ago
            I'd agree that it is worth pushing your limits during training, but the best-case scenario during actual conflict is to be as close to 0% overwhelmed as you can be.
            • MichaelZuo6 days ago
              How does that follow?

              That would mean leaving some performance on the table the rest of the time.

              It doesn't seem clear at all whether one outweighs the other.

              • chimpanzee6 days ago
                Overwhelming an enemy involves getting inside their OODA loop. I can't see a real life-or-death scenario, outside of training, where you'd want your enemy to successfully get inside your OODA loop and disrupt your flow and rhythm, even for 0.1% of the time.

                You of course don't want to become comfortable and complacent, risking losing focus, but there must be better ways of avoiding that other than being occasionally overwhelmed.

                • MichaelZuo5 days ago
                  It doesn’t matter how many scenarios you enumerate, because the possibility space is infinite.

                  I don’t see how that could lead to a credible proof, even on the balance of probabilities.

                  • chimpanzee5 days ago
                    You’re suggesting there are real deadly combat scenarios where it is beneficial to have your OODA loop compromised. Ok maybe you’re right, given the infinite possibilities.

                    But until you can present at least one such example scenario, no individual would be willing to take such a risk when their own life is at stake. Real combatants might value the motivating threat of being overwhelmed, but do not actually wish to be overwhelmed (i.e. have their OODA loop compromised).

                    In deadly combat, no one is looking to theorize. No one quibbles about their inability to prove the negative. They just want to live to see the next day.

                    • MichaelZuo5 days ago
                      Huh? Do you believe this phenomena has never happened before?

                      Otherwise your comment doesn’t make sense.

                      • chimpanzee5 days ago
                        My belief doesn’t matter. Without proof that it is advantageous in a given scenario, I would never prefer to be overwhelmed in deadly combat. And I doubt you would either. If you believe you would, please present an example scenario.
                        • MichaelZuo5 days ago
                          If your belief doesn’t matter… then why do your opinions matter at all?

                          Or is that meant to be metaphorical?

        • JumpCrisscross6 days ago
          > they write as if being overwhelmed 3% of the time is a victory

          We’re talking about a soldier. Commanding a company’s worth of firepower single-handedly from relative safety. 3% would be an exceptional improvement over the status quo.

        • andrewflnr5 days ago
          This is peacetime thinking. If you've got a whole army trying to kill you, you're going to get overwhelmed sometimes.
        • bluGill6 days ago
          The real question is what happens in that 3%. If they are still able to control the drones that is very different from they set the drones to kill your own people. (This is DARPA so we can assume killing people is a goal in some form). There is a lot in between too.
        • thereisnospork6 days ago
          This is a common error, if not outright fallacy. The correct amount of <negative event> is rarely zero due to diminishing returns -- it is where the cost curves intersect.

          E.g. to decrease 3pct to 0.3pct might require operating only half the drones -- not a good trade.

        • monkpit5 days ago
          Compare it to a control group - I feel overwhelmed at least 5% of the time and I’m not even controlling any robots.
        • some_random6 days ago
          Yeah I really don't like that phrasing. Take off and landing is the most dangerous part of flying but only makes up a tiny percentage of the total flight. If that 3% of the time referenced is the most dangerous or most critical 3% of time then it hardly matters how easy the rest of it is.
        • jcelerier6 days ago
          This is about the army. Depending on the case, it's acceptable that 30% of people die if it serves strategic goals. That's how "a good system" is defined by those who have the power to enact it .
      • alpaca1286 days ago
        That sentence could come from an Onion news report about worker productivity.
      • colechristensen6 days ago
        It's DARPA, you're really past the moralizing about war stage here, that's just out of context. I don't see UX experts hand-wringing about the effects of advertising when they're designing their products.

        >discourse around wellness, anxiety, and mental health in such a banal manner

        It's not about "feelings" and that might disturb you, but really very many things should be much less about feelings. A whole lot of "wellness, anxiety, and mental health" isn't about feelings but instead being inside or outside the limits of what a person is capable of handling. Facts-based analysis of work and life and people being too far outside their comfort zone could do a lot for many people dealing with mental health issues.

        DARPA does and obviously _needs to_ study these things. One of the most important areas for this are pilots especially during emergencies. It comes from both directions, designing the machine to be manageable and training the human to manage in exceptional circumstances and _knowing the limits_ of both.

        • thrance6 days ago
          Congratulations, you cured the mental illness epidemic, depressed people just had to push their limits! Why didn't anyone think of that before?
        • szvsw6 days ago
          > It's DARPA, you're really past the moralizing about war stage here, that's just out of context.

          I don’t really think I was moralizing… just commenting on the funny juxtaposition of the language and the context - or on the comedy of the language specifically when not considering the whole context. I was not saying DARPA should or should not be doing this - though I’ll grant that what I wrote could be read as an implicit criticism, even though it was not my intention.

          > I don't see UX experts hand-wringing about the effects of advertising when they're designing their products.

          Plenty do. Plenty don’t. Similarly, plenty of machine learning engineers might choose not to work on, say, a predictive algorithm for facial recognition or a product recommender system because they don’t feel like being a part of that system. Some people don’t have that luxury, or don’t care. It’s fine either way, though I of course encourage anyone to do some reflection on the social implications of their engineering projects from time to time. Hamming, who worked on everything from the ABomb to telephones to the foundations of computer programming (and everything in between) strongly recommends this, and I agree. Working on weapons might be necessary, but you still need to reflect and make a conscious decision about it.

          > It's not about "feelings" […] It comes from both directions, designing the machine to be manageable and training the human to manage in exceptional circumstances and _knowing the limits_ of both.

          Of course, totally understand that. That doesn’t mean we can’t find humor in decontextualizing the language! Or in thinking about how science always must struggle with euphemism for the purposes of concision.

    • KumaBear6 days ago
      Watching professional starcraft players makes you question if they are human. Their control of vast quantities of units and platoons is unreal at moments.
      • crooked-v6 days ago
        The real limiter is (unironically) the quality of the drone pathfinding.
    • _carbyau_6 days ago
      But not everyone is a Professional Starcraft player, even with training.

      Besides, I'd prefer a Supreme Commander interface where patrol points can be added/deleted/moved on the fly while factories produce more into that loop including ferry points along the way. Supreme Commander made me feel it was more about strategy than action count.

      • 42lux5 days ago
        When controlling swarms of drones in a combat situation your micro will matter more than your macro IRL you won't have one operator do both.
    • nickpinkston6 days ago
      DARPA needs to partner with our Korean allies who already know how to push up their APMs in these scenarios.
    • datadrivenangel6 days ago
      Good unit AI for RTS allow for amazing results, and there is so much more control/automation that most RTS games could allow for.
    • parsimo20106 days ago
      > The most common reason for a human commander to reach an overload state is when they had to generate multiple new tactics or inspect which vehicles in the launch zone were available for deployment

      This seems misleading- what they said is that when everything is on cruise control the commander does not feel overwhelmed. But if they have to do some high cognitive load task (like reading statuses) or react to a complex situation the commander will feel overwhelmed, which is bad. We want to be able to react quickly and appropriately to all situations, which we can't do when overwhelmed. Being able to handle dozens of bots in a calm situation is meaningless. We need to staff our bot controllers/monitors/commanders at a level that they can handle those top 3% complex wartime scenarios.

      • TeMPOraL6 days ago
        >> to generate multiple new tactics or inspect which vehicles in the launch zone were available for deployment

        Following up on GP's analogy, I read this as "human overwhelmed by micro" and "human overwhelmed by macro", which... tracks.

        From my own StarCraft experience, the two most taxing parts of the game - the ones where I could easily get confused and lose track of the battle, or even forget what I was doing and why, were:

        1) Micro, i.e. "generating new multiple new tactics" on the fly, manually controlling a bunch of units, whose survival depended entirely on me being able to do it faster than my opponent.

        2) Macro, i.e. "inspecting which vehicles in the launch zone were available for deployment" and deploying them, while queuing production of new ones - while trying to keep track of the front line(s) and spot potential sneak attacks and overall pay attention to the whole map. "Macro management" is easy when it's the only thing you do - but when there's a battle going on, you end up looking at a different part of the map for a second, every second; it basically becomes a form of "micro", except you're micromanaging your attention.

        In both cases, the source of the overwhelm is the pressure of battle - things are changing so fast that few seconds can decide the fate of the battle, possibly of the overall game - but the battles between peers can drag on for minutes, requiring you to sustain that level of focus for extended time, and keep it split between the fighting and the base management; as there too, few seconds of error can put you at a large disadvantage down the line.

        All this to say - I'm not a soldier, so I might be wrong, but I feel that real-life warfare, at least now, isn't this fast-paced. That may change in drone vs. drone scenarios, but with humans on the ground, I imagine taking it slow and methodical will remain the dominant approach.

      • Talanes6 days ago
        >For example, sensors collected data on their heart-rate variability, posture, and even their speech rate. The data were input into an established algorithm that estimates workload levels and was used to determine when the controller was reaching a workload level that exceeded a normal range, called an “overload state.”

        Based on this, I also think "overwhelmed" might be editorialized language added by the reporter.

    • easterncalculus6 days ago
      It makes me wonder if there could be some sort of lower-cost real-life strategy game with cheap(er) homemade drones eventually, kind of like FPV racing now. I'm not a big RTS person but that sounds really fun.
      • mkoubaa6 days ago
        If the drones were not destroyed as part of normal gameplay it could make sense. So rather than a battle Royale maybe something like drone laser tag mechanics
        • easterncalculus5 days ago
          Exactly, laser tag was exactly what I had in mind. Over a long enough space I could definitely see it being fun, and just have them turn off when they've been tagged. Plus, at the end they could probably clean themselves up and drive away.
          • mkoubaa5 days ago
            StarCraft units are semi-autonomous anyways. You don't want a human controlling the drones every movement, that would be awful
      • colechristensen6 days ago
        Robot wars but instead of 1v1 you have large teams of drones on a well enclosed football field.

        I can't decide if that would be cool or terrifying.

    • itishappy6 days ago
      Professional Starcraft players prove that this is possible, but my own experience playing Starcraft indicates it's not all that common.
    • mkoubaa6 days ago
      This is why we can't deal with China right now
      • 6 days ago
        undefined
    • h2zizzle6 days ago
      No Newtype powers required.
    • 0cf8612b2e1e6 days ago
      So Overwatch/ DVa is onto something.
    • 29athrowaway6 days ago
      Or AlphaStar from DeepMind.
    • sklargh6 days ago
      Came here to say this - or a more distant comparison - air traffic controllers. Also control is a tricky term - are they directly controlling or tasking a semi-autonomous robot.
  • hooverd6 days ago
    I hope the robots have funny voice lines if you click on their icons enough.
  • excalibur6 days ago
    > For instance, in a particularly challenging, multiday experiment in an urban setting, human controllers were overloaded with the workload only 3 percent of the time.

    That 3 percent is definitely the part where the innocent people are killed

    • sitkack6 days ago
      Unintended surplus collateral loss.
    • tehjoker6 days ago
      given the performance of the Israelis recently, it may be more like the opposite. they would authorize collateral damage of 300 people to get 1 militant, so their "off-target" ratio could be as high as 99.7%

      Israel does path finding for what the U.S. military can get away with.

  • Ajedi326 days ago
    Starcraft players presumably not surprised.

    But seriously, isn't this just a function of how much babysitting the robots require and how good the UI is for controlling them? I don't see why there should be any fundamental limits here.

  • sampton6 days ago
    Coincidentally EA just open sourced C&C games.
  • hyuuu6 days ago
    China / South Korea esport players will be the next super soldiers
  • conception6 days ago
    I guess Ender finally gets his game.
  • chachacharge6 days ago
    WE REQUIRE MORE MINERALS
    • qwertox6 days ago
      Yeah those motors and batteries are nothing to neglect.
  • deadbabe6 days ago
    Will we ever be able to build a war interface for remote controlled drones that is so good it just feels like an RTS game? Or will latency be an issue.
    • daveguy6 days ago
      Latency will always be an issue with distant tele-operation from the control source. Best to have local autonomy while waiting for latent instructions. The more autonomous the drone is, the farther away an effective control source can be. Usually the control source is not across the globe, but in the closest safe distance. For pack-drones that is close enough that latency isn't an issue.
  • lenerdenator6 days ago
    This really is the sort of technology that I want the government to be looking into.
    • kevin_thibedeau6 days ago
      Until your local paramilitary cosplay group decides to equip their SWAT team with them.
      • kiddico6 days ago
        I think that was sarcasm... I hope that was sarcasm.
        • kevin_thibedeau6 days ago
          Don't worry. They'll use non-lethal weaponry to merely blind innocent civilians with their military surplus gun bots.
        • lenerdenator6 days ago
          I mean my response was sarcasm, idk about theirs ^
  • danielmarkbruce6 days ago
    This won't age well. 100 ?
  • unification_fan5 days ago
    So what can we do to prepare? Like how do you protect against a drone swarm? Can you hack them from afar? Make them unable to communicate? Anything??

    I'd better start carrying fish nets with me. If this is how it's going to be then I'd rather go down trying.

    In other news, MANHAAAAAAACKS

    • igleria5 days ago
      > So what can we do to prepare?

      EMP is what my ignorance in electronics suggests. But to be fair, people like you and me have no recourse against drone technology.

    • FreebasingLLMs5 days ago
      [dead]