Hurricane Milton explodes into a powerful Cat 5 storm as it heads for Florida(theconversation.com)
44 pointsby gnabgib4 days ago6 comments
  • perihelions4 days ago
    This is Katrina-like. It won't hit Florida as a Category 5 (should weaken before then, like Katrina), but the wind-driven storm surge it builds up passing over the Gulf will be that of a Category 5.

    Current forecast is 10-15 feet in Tampa bay,

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213144.s...

  • Vecr4 days ago
    I'm looking at a scenario for the counties: Citrus Hardee Hernando Hillsborough Manatee Pasco Pinellas Polk Sumter (Project Phoenix Scenario)

    Barrier islands are quickly overtopped, provide ~no protection.

    Water up to 26 feet above tide level in downtown Tampa. Bridges have their approaches washed away or are otherwise made unusable.

    Most windows blown out in high rise buildings. Along with roof damage/destruction, leads to predictable results for the structures involved.

    Inland is not protected from flooding, rivers Hillsborough, Alafia, Lower Manatee, Braden, and Manatee and the Tampa Bypass Canal fill with storm surge water and flood their banks.

    During the peak of the flooding, parts of central St. Petersburg and mid‐Pinellas County that are not fully flooded become effective islands. Escape is probably not possible.

    General inability to operate Search and Rescue, even days afterwards. Major loss of life.

    Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision.

    • gigatree3 days ago
      > Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision. Isn’t that a bit hyperbolic?
    • Atotalnoob4 days ago
      Where are you seeing 26ft?

      NOAA is projecting 10-15 ft

      • perihelions3 days ago
        I don't know where[a] they found that exact number, but it seems reasonable for parts of the bay interior, because of funneling effects. Same reason the Bay of Fundy has a 16-meter daily tide when the open ocean doesn't do that.

        ([a] 26 feet is the exact elevation of Tampa International Airport, so perhaps it's that. If you look at the surge maps, they do show a nonzero chance of surge over those runways).

        • Vecr3 days ago
          I got it from the Project Phoenix Scenario.
          • Atotalnoob3 days ago
            Project phoenix is a made up simulation
            • Vecr3 days ago
              Yes? When I wrote the original comment the actual data looked pretty close, and I still think it's a pretty good match. It would be difficult to re-calculate bridge damage estimates in real time.
      • JamesSwift3 days ago
        10-15 is probably storm surge and 26 is with waves on top
  • Kon-Peki4 days ago
    I'd be really worried as they haven't finished cleaning up from the previous hurricane. The giant piles of debris are going to be providing a lot of flying projectiles.
  • cozzyd4 days ago
    I'm tempted to make office space jokes, but this has the potential to be far too destructive. Besides the possible direct devastation, the whole state could be affected by further disruption to the state insurance market.
    • Vecr4 days ago
      On the financial level, the state might be too much risk. Personally I would consider if I really needed to have anything to do with Florida at all. If you think that makes sense, consider getting everything out before it gets priced in (because I'm pretty sure it's distorted right now).
    • lotsofpulp4 days ago
      > the whole state could be affected by further disruption to the state insurance market.

      Enter federal taxpayers:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Progr...

  • Terr_4 days ago
    > Hurricane Milton

    If a picturesque area is damaged, I can already editors making headlines about "Paradise Lost."

  • 486sx334 days ago
    With any luck, it’ll move north and miss Tampa
    • Merik4 days ago
      the worse case scenario is if the eye makes landfall north of Tampa, as the counter clockwise rotation pushes more water in front of the front right quadrant. Tampa could be spared if it turns more south, but there are other communities that will more be impacted instead. There is no good outcome here…
      • 486sx333 days ago
        Certainly unfortunate, thanks for the insight. My thinking was that north of Tampa to Tallahassee is less populated.
    • Vecr4 days ago
      [flagged]
      • Terr_4 days ago
        I'm not sure what you're trying to say about "luck" here, it seems you're angrily attacking parent-poster for hoping the natural-disaster will miss a major city because of... Foolish optimism? Selfish desire?
        • Vecr4 days ago
          Well, it he doing anything to make it go somewhere else? What kind of calculation is he using to figure out who to hit instead?