Every problem is a search problem.

Nuke the data centers.

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Aug-2026 Update:

AI's are now nearing PHD-level in math, and frontier labs may already be there with unreleased models. Given this, RSI now seems imminent. Meanwhile we haven't even solved the most basic safety problems and are seeing increasing major AI-related security incidents.

I'd now put the probability of ASI by year end at 50/50. By end of next I'd put this at 70%+. Really the only question at this point is what happens next? If we cannot make current AIs do what we want, must we simply hope that the super intelligent AIs we create take an improbable liking to us?

Spend time with your family while you still can. These are now the last months of normality.

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P(doom) = 98.9% (Aug-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (July-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (Jun-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (May-2026) P(doom) = 98.8% (mid-April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (March-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (mid-Feb-2026) P(doom) = 97% (Feb-2026) P(doom) = 94% (Jan-2026) P(doom) = 93% (Dec-2025) P(doom) = 95% (July-2025)

My opinions become more reasonable with time.